2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

[Jacob '06]

[quote jtwcornell91][quote heykb][quote Robb]19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time.  The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...[/quote]

I daresay you'll get a *lot* more than one per second. How about 100/sec at the least? Now we're at 4 hours or so. You may get even more throughput than that.[/quote]

It's probably doable with an offline app, but throwing queries at a web script is going to slow things down.  (And for heaven's sake, please don't actually try flinging automated queries at YATC.  That would basically be a DOS attack.)[/quote]

You wrote the YATC script right? Did you base it off an online app, or is it based on querying stat sites? If you did it offline and then just converted it in to a website I nominate you to write that program to figure out the best and worst scenarios ;-)

[Ken\'70]

As long as we win out we have a very good chance, and even if we lose the final there's a chance, the key results seem to be:

* Miami cannot win out - this seems to be the killer assuming we lose 1. If we win out then my few iterations had us east in most, but not all, cases even if Miami won the WCHA.
* Losing to Dartmouth gives us more options than losing to Harvard
* BU winning out is better than any one else in HE

Anyone else interested in this particular outcome, and has the time, I'd love to see what you come up with, i.e., I'd love to know the key teams to root for and against this weekend.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Ken'70]As long as we win out we have a very good chance, and even if we lose the final there's a chance, the key results seem to be:

* Miami cannot win out - this seems to be the killer assuming we lose 1. If we win out then my few iterations had us east in most, but not all, cases even if Miami won the WCHA.
* Losing to Dartmouth gives us more options than losing to Harvard
* BU winning out is better than any one else in HE

Anyone else interested in this particular outcome, and has the time, I'd love to see what you come up with, i.e., I'd love to know the key teams to root for and against this weekend.[/quote]

Wow Ken thanks. In all this weirdness I'm glad someone figured out a pattern.


But I gotta say:

if Miami won the WCHA.

 *that* I'd like to see

[Chris \'03]

I ran this scenario based on Adam's column on CHN, which notes that if Holy Cross and Bentley play for the AHA title, HC has more to gain by throwing the game.

How's this sound for a Green Bay Regional: #1 Wisconsin v. #4 Bemidji and #2 Cornell vs. #3 Holy Cross? It's not totally out of the question apparently. It's a better scenario than a lot that send the team west.


You have specified the following tournament results:

    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Bentley defeats Mercyhurst.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.
    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
    * CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
    * ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
    * ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
    * ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
    * ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
    * Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
    * WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
    * WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota-Duluth.

[Ack]

To bring this thread to life, this puts Cornell as the 3rd overall seed now:

(there are a few scenarios that accomplish this, but I think it's impossible to bring Minnesota or Wisconsin down from 1 and 2)

33/22/11

CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: Harvard defeats Dartmouth.
ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.

[Chris \'03]

[quote Ack]To bring this thread to life, this puts Cornell as the 3rd overall seed now:

(there are a few scenarios that accomplish this, but I think it's impossible to bring Minnesota or Wisconsin down from 1 and 2)
[/quote]

Remarkably, none of the specified results would be huge upsets. The biggest upsets of the bunch are probably UNH over BU (which has already happened this year), and Northern over Michigan State (NMU has played well of late and in a consolation game who knows?).

I'm starting to think that it's in Cornell's interest to root for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and UMD in the WCHA. Minnesota and Wisco because no one is catching them anyway and UMD as a CoP. Is that a fair assessment?

I'm less sure about who to like in the CCHA. I guess we're past rooting for MSU if Cornell is fighting them for seeding in the 3-6 range. We'd like to see Cornell keep the Miami comparison (and they are in the 3-6 fight too). Do we have to root for Michigan (6 common opponent games vs. 2 for NMU)?

Of course all this is based on Cornell winning too. Rooting for a team like Michigan could hurt if Cornell loses this weekend and Michigan passes them.

[jy3]

[quote TCHL8842][quote DeltaOne81]

Just sucks that Harvard is #7, and can't seem to even lose the two seed - and definitely not the tournament.[/quote]

Here you go

Harvard ends up 15th and out of the tourney

    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
    * CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Michigan.
    * ECACHL Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
    * ECACHL Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
    * ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
    * ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Harvard.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
    * Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
    * WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.[/quote]

This is without any bonus. a 3/2/1 bonus bumps hahvahd up to 7th in this case.

[Trotsky]

[quote Chris '03]How's this sound for a Green Bay Regional: #1 Wisconsin v. #4 Bemidji and #2 Cornell vs. #3 Holy Cross?[/quote]

It sounds great, other than the traveling part, but can you imagine the hissy fit if they ever put the two mid-majors in the same regional?

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Following up on Ken'70s post, if we win out, the only way I've found so far for us to go west is for Miami to win out AND for Wisconsin to lose two.  We finish 6th, but Wisco drops to third behind Miami, and we get sent out to GB to join them.  If Bucky wins one or Miami loses one, Wisconsin stays #2 and we stay east.  All this contingent on Minnesota winning their semi.  If Minny plays Wisconsin in the consy, even if Wisconsin loses, their RPI stays high enough to stay #2.

BTW, if we win out, I haven't found a scenario where we drop lower than 6th.

[nyc94]

Reminder that there is game tonight at 8:35 ET
WCHA Play-In Game
Minnesota-Duluth vs. St. Cloud State

[cth95]

Go UMD!  Right?

[nyc94]

[quote cth95]Go MDU!  Right?[/quote]

Who knows anymore.  Since we played them you would think we should pull for them but I see above that we can get the overall three seed if they lose (among other things happening).  Not sure how much really hinges on this game

[cth95]

Damn! I was hoping I could get that post edited before anyone saw my screw-up.  :-P

[KeithK]

Regardless of PWR implications I'll be pulling for the UMD/Jan Brady winner this weekend.

[nyc94]

St. Cloud 1-0, 44 seconds in.  ::uhoh::
edit: 2-0 now