2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

jy3 · March 18, 2006, 12:01:52 AM

ok
so i found a way to be a #1 seed
still playing around with it
eachl
cornell wins, colgate wins
ccha-state and nmu win
he-bc wins
aha-hc wins
wcha-scsu and minne win
gonna play some more

jy3 · March 18, 2006, 12:07:36 AM

yeah so this is what I am cheering for, with the 3/2/1 bonus (33/22/11 bonus makes us lose the bu comparison by .0001!)

Quality-Win Bonus Factors

You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.003    per quality road win
.002    per quality neutral-ice win
.001    per quality home win.
User-Specified Results

You have specified the following tournament results:

* CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Bentley.

Jacob '06 · March 18, 2006, 12:14:41 AM

I haven't found any way we get sent to ND b/c north dakota and us are pretty much set for being in the 2nd band. There are a few ways we get sent to Green Bay, but I didn't pay too much attention to what the patterns were.

Jeff Hopkins '82 · March 18, 2006, 12:15:23 AM

Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.

schoaff · March 18, 2006, 12:18:36 AM

[quote Jeff Hopkins '82]Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.[/quote]

If for no other reason than to avoid a year of EZAC comments after Sucks loses to Holy Cross.

nyc94 · March 18, 2006, 12:20:33 AM

[quote schoaff]If for no other reason than to avoid a year of EZAC comments after Sucks loses to Holy Cross.[/quote]

nice ::laugh::

Tub(a) · March 18, 2006, 12:30:48 AM

[quote Jeff Hopkins '82]Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.[/quote]

I think this is right.

My earlier projections were assuming a Mercyhurst win, which affected Cornell negatively somehow. I think the Bentley win renders UND irrelevant for Cornell in terms of east/west.

Rita · March 18, 2006, 12:35:50 AM

Question: If MN is a 1 seed and Wisconsin drops to #3, would the committee send MN to Green Bay rather than North Dakota? According to Map Quest, the mileage (airport to airport) from Minneapolis to Grand Forks is 332 miles and Minny to Green Bay 281 miles. Not much, sort of like Ithaca-Worcester, Ithaca-Providence. But, I heard that most of the Green Bay regional is sold out (in anticipation of the Badgers being there), thus there is no "gate to protect"; the NC$$ has that money in hand.

If North Dakota is seeded 7 or higher, it would, potentially, allow the committee to have a 1-8 match-up in the second round if MN was not in Grand Forks.

Just wondering.

DeltaOne81 · March 18, 2006, 01:22:14 AM

They don't have to protect the $$ gate, but they don't want the stands empty either.

I think the committee is going to consider Grand Forks to be 'closer' to Minn for all intents and purposes, so that they can send Wisc to Green Bay. This is nothing more than a hunch of my part, but they've proven before that they'd call mostly equivalent distances as equal, and a packed Green Bay house would certainly be to their advantage.

DeltaOne81 · March 18, 2006, 01:48:47 AM

We found one way that we can stay east even if we lose.

We would be 7, Miami would be 8, UND and BU would also be 2 seeds. So BU in Worcester, UND in Grand Forks, and I would have to imagine that Miami would be sent west to face Wisc as the lowest remaining 2, and we'd get sent to Albany.

It seems most key that Miami doesn't win *and* that UND wins thereby taking the Miami comparison, so they fall to 8th behind us. BU may help too, but definitely doesn't seem critical.

Steve M · March 18, 2006, 02:17:06 AM

[quote Jeff Hopkins '82]Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.[/quote]

Overall I would consider that good news. Unlike last year, we contrl our own destiny to stay east going into the championship game. It makes the stakes even higher than they would be otherwise. Go Red! Beat Hahvahd!

jy3 · March 18, 2006, 08:05:22 AM

this gives an interesting result
4t     Boston University (BU)     24     .5598
4t    Cornell (Cr)    24    .5597
.0001! is the deciding factor.

Quality-Win Bonus Factors

You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.003    per quality road win
.002    per quality neutral-ice win
.001    per quality home win.
User-Specified Results

You have specified the following tournament results:

* CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Bentley.

jy3 · March 18, 2006, 08:10:33 AM

this has us both with the same rpi, with bu winning it somehow

Quality-Win Bonus Factors

You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.003    per quality road win
.002    per quality neutral-ice win
.001    per quality home win.
User-Specified Results

You have specified the following tournament results:

* CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Bentley.

Originally developed for USCHO by John Whelan and revised for 2006.

jtwcornell91 · March 18, 2006, 10:20:26 AM

[quote jy3]Originally developed for USCHO by John Whelan and revised for 2006.[/quote]

You know the original one is running already. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

atb9 · March 18, 2006, 12:13:29 PM

[quote jtwcornell91]You know the original one is running already. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php[/quote]

Yeah, use CHN! Another reason to visit CHN: they gave Age a media pass so he could take pictures for them!