2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

[Jim Hyla]

[quote atb9][quote jtwcornell91]You know the original one is running already.  http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php[/quote]

Yeah, use CHN!  Another reason to visit CHN: they gave Age a media pass so he could take pictures for them![/quote]Yeah, but that meant he couldn't wear his jersey.:`(

[jy3]

[quote jtwcornell91][quote jy3]Originally developed for USCHO by John Whelan and revised for 2006.[/quote]

You know the original one is running already.  http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php[/quote]

yeah that was just copied from uscho

so the worst  I could have us getting 2nite is 8th and the best 5th, assuming 'gate doesnt come back on dartmouth. SUCKS, on the other hand, can still get a #1 seed. anyone else get something different. off to the game :-D
LGR!
i will try to post from my axim

[Rita]

Being a pessimist, I ran YATC with the consy results, a Cornell loss, and UND win and 33/22/11 bonus.  Cornell stays in the 4-8 band, and so does North Dakota. I ran the script with the various permuations (but I may have missed a few) of the conference tourney results for Hockey East, AHA and CCHA.

[Chris 02]

Anyone know if Holy Cross is in for sure?  It'd be nice to see given and make all the folks with the western bias upset.

[Jacob '06]

Sitting in the Pepsi between games we tried every possibility and our interpretation of which regional we'd be in:

               REGIONAL
CU win         
   UND win      
      Miami win   
         BU win   
            HC win   Albany
            HC lose   Albany
         BU lose   
            HC win   Worcester
            HC lose   Albany (Worcester?) (#1 seed)
      Miami lose   
         BU win   
            HC win   Albany
            HC lose   crapshoot
         BU lose   
            HC win   Albany
            HC lose   Albany
   UND lose      
      Miami win   
         BU win   
            HC win   Albany
            HC lose   Albany
         BU lose   
            HC win   Albany
            HC lose   Albany
      Miami lose   
         BU win   
            HC win   Worcester
            HC lose   Worcester
         BU lose   
            HC win   Worcester
            HC lose   Worcester
CU lose         
   UND win      
      Miami win   
         BU win   
            HC win   Green Bay
            HC lose   Green Bay
         BU lose   
            HC win   Green Bay
            HC lose   Green Bay
      Miami lose   
         BU win   
            HC win   Worcester
            HC lose   Worcester
         BU lose   
            HC win   Albany
            HC lose   crapshoot
   UND lose      
      Miami win   
         BU win   
            HC win   Green Bay
            HC lose   Green Bay
         BU lose   
            HC win   Green Bay
            HC lose   Green Bay
      Miami lose   
         BU win   
            HC win   Green Bay
            HC lose   Green Bay
         BU lose   
            HC win   Green Bay
            HC lose   Green Bay



Green Bay   3/8     38% 
Albany   11/32   34%
Worcester   7/32   22%   
crapshoot   3/32   9%

[Jacob '06]

Those may be wrong. We just looked at some scenarios again and can't seem to reproduce it. Sorry

[Jacob '06]

With results from the CCHA and AH games, it leaves this:

               REGIONAL
CU win         
   UND win      
         BU win   Albany
         BU lose   Albany
   UND lose      
         BU win   Worcester
         BU lose   Worcester
CU lose         
   UND win      
         BU win   Albany
         BU lose   Albany
   UND lose      
         BU win   Green Bay
         BU lose   Green Bay

So the BU/BC doesn't matter, but we really want UND to win if we lose.
(don't kill me if this is wrong)

[Tub(a)]

[quote Jacob '06]With results from the CCHA and AH games, it leaves this:

               REGIONAL
CU win         
   UND win      
         BU win   Albany
         BU lose   Albany
   UND lose      
         BU win   Worcester
         BU lose   Worcester
CU lose         
   UND win      
         BU win   Albany
         BU lose   Albany
   UND lose      
         BU win   Green Bay
         BU lose   Green Bay

So the BU/BC doesn't matter, but we really want UND to win if we lose.
(don't kill me if this is wrong)[/quote]

I assume this is with 33/22/11? EDIT: With 33/22/11 a Cornell loss equals Green Bay regardless of results.

[Tub(a)]

BU wins.

Without any bonus, a Cornell loss puts them at 4th in the PWR regardless of the WCHA result. In other words, in an entirely objective system, Cornell is a number one seed and Harvard is not.

33/22/11 or 3/2/1 Cornell loss is 8th in Green Bay playing Miami in the first round regardless of the WCHA result. Harvard is a 1 seed in either of these bonuses.

[upperdeck]

why do the TV guys sat it comes down to wooster or albany? what are they seeing different?

[Tub(a)]

The higher the bonus goes, the higher Harvard goes.

Harvard is number one overall and Cornell stays east in their bracket as number 9 if the bonus is 6/4/2 or higher.

[Tub(a)]

[quote upperdeck]why do the TV guys sat it comes down to wooster or albany? what are they seeing different?[/quote]

Are they talking about Cornell?

If so they might be forgetting to add in a bonus. Any reasonable bonus puts Cornell west. They also might not have updated the BU win yet.

[Al DeFlorio]

I think they're ignoring the bonus.

[imafrshmn]

UND is up 5-2 in the 3rd according to gameslacker

[Tub(a)]

With 33/22/11 and UND winning-----

Green Bay:

Wisc
Cornell
Miami
Bemidji

Worcester:

Harvard
UND
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minny
BU
UNO
Maine

Albany:

CC
MSU
UNH
BC

The only problem is that BU needs to be in Worcester and UND needs to be in Grand Forks. Fortunately, they can easily flip. So:

Green Bay:

Wisc
Cornell
Miami
Bemidji

Worcester:

Harvard
BU
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minny
UND
UNO
Maine

Albany:

CC
MSU
UNH
BC

I think that's a very winnable bracket for CU and a nearly impossible one for Harvard.