2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

jy3 · March 13, 2006, 05:02:07 PM

holy cross to 10 without winning their tourney? that is impressive. of course with cornell out, this would not be an acceptable result

Josh '99 · March 13, 2006, 05:10:00 PM

[quote bothman]From USCHO:

Try this on for size. It gets Holy Cross to 10 and knocks Cornell, BC and Michigan out of the tournament.[/quote]I think USCHO would explode if Holy Cross got an at-large and Cornell, BC and Michigan were all on the outside looking in.

Will · March 13, 2006, 05:12:06 PM

[quote jmh30][quote bothman]From USCHO:

Try this on for size. It gets Holy Cross to 10 and knocks Cornell, BC and Michigan out of the tournament.[/quote]I think USCHO would explode if Holy Cross got an at-large and Cornell, BC and Michigan were all on the outside looking in.[/quote]
While I kinda like the idea of USCHO exploding, I'm not willing to sacrifice Cornell's postseason chances to see it happen.

Of course, now I want to find a scenario where Holy Cross gets an at-large, and BC and Michigan miss the tourney, but Cornell still makes it in. :-D

abmarks · March 13, 2006, 05:24:24 PM

We can go as low as 14!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16. (Edit, 14, not 16, per Delta below)

Not sure if there is a way to get bumped, but this is close...
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You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:

.0033 per quality road win
.0022 per quality neutral-ice win
.0011 per quality home win.

User-Specified Results
You have specified the following tournament results:

CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
ECACHL Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.

DeltaOne81 · March 13, 2006, 05:30:22 PM

[quote abmarks]We can go as low as 16!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16.[/quote]

Well, no, we're 14, we just miss the tourney. So yeah, even being #5, its been proven that there are a few scenarios where we can miss out with two losses and an upset autobid or two.

Just sucks that Harvard is #7, and can't seem to even lose the two seed - and definitely not the tournament.

abmarks · March 13, 2006, 05:41:37 PM

[quote DeltaOne81][quote abmarks]We can go as low as 16!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16.[/quote]

Well, no, we're 14, we just miss the tourney. So yeah, even being #5, its been proven that there are a few scenarios where we can miss out with two losses and an upset autobid or two....[/quote]

Correction to your correction...if we end up 14, with 2 auto-bids below us, it means we are the last team in.

nyc94 · March 13, 2006, 05:58:27 PM

[quote abmarks][quote DeltaOne81][quote abmarks]We can go as low as 16!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16.[/quote]

Well, no, we're 14, we just miss the tourney. So yeah, even being #5, its been proven that there are a few scenarios where we can miss out with two losses and an upset autobid or two....[/quote]

Correction to your correction...if we end up 14, with 2 auto-bids below us, it means we are the last team in.[/quote]

To elaborate, Holy Cross would be the 12 seed. The two autobids below us would be Dartmouth and Bemidji.

TCHL8842 · March 13, 2006, 06:10:18 PM

[quote DeltaOne81]

Just sucks that Harvard is #7, and can't seem to even lose the two seed - and definitely not the tournament.[/quote]

Here you go

Harvard ends up 15th and out of the tourney

* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* ECACHL Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECACHL Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Harvard.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.

jtwcornell91 · March 13, 2006, 06:13:23 PM

OTOH, Charlie Shub does exhaustively search all results and post the histograms on Hockey-L once there are only a few games left.

Jim Hyla · March 13, 2006, 06:34:49 PM

Man, it's fun to read, but some people have too much time on their hands.:-)

KeithK · March 13, 2006, 06:45:09 PM

Since when do the WCHA and CCHA go back to having consolation games? I could have sworn that the ECAC was the only conference to have one in recent years.

nyc94 · March 13, 2006, 06:59:23 PM

[quote KeithK]Since when do the WCHA and CCHA go back to having consolation games? I could have sworn that the ECAC was the only conference to have one in recent years.[/quote]

According to INCH, the CCHA and WCHA have had consolation games for at least the past three seasons.

heykb · March 13, 2006, 07:20:57 PM

[quote Robb]19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time. The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...[/quote]

I daresay you'll get a *lot* more than one per second. How about 100/sec at the least? Now we're at 4 hours or so. You may get even more throughput than that.

KeithK · March 13, 2006, 07:26:49 PM

[quote nyc94][quote KeithK]Since when do the WCHA and CCHA go back to having consolation games? I could have sworn that the ECAC was the only conference to have one in recent years.[/quote]

According to INCH, the CCHA and WCHA have had consolation games for at least the past three seasons.[/quote]You're right accorsing to USCHO's archives. The WCHA has had a consy since at least 1999. The CCHA has only had one since 2003 and didn't have one from 1999-2002. That's as far back as the USCHO archives go (game by game schedules anyway).

I must've been confusing these leagues with HE, which has not had a consolation in at least eight years.

jtwcornell91 · March 13, 2006, 07:45:02 PM

[quote heykb][quote Robb]19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time. The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...[/quote]

I daresay you'll get a *lot* more than one per second. How about 100/sec at the least? Now we're at 4 hours or so. You may get even more throughput than that.[/quote]

It's probably doable with an offline app, but throwing queries at a web script is going to slow things down. (And for heaven's sake, please don't actually try flinging automated queries at YATC. That would basically be a DOS attack.)