2005-2006 PWR

[Robb]

I really, really need a life:

There are 203 regular season games left.  That doesn't sound so bad.  But each game can have 3 outcomes, win, loss, or draw.  Thats 3^203 possibilities, which, if you can trust Excel to handle such large figures, comes out to 7.2x10^96.  Throw on top of that that the conference playoffs involve 23 2-of-3 series (4 possibilities each: 2-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-2) and 28 single elimination games (only 2 possibilities: W or L), and you're up to 1.4x10^119 remaining possibilities.

For reference, there are an estimated ~1x10^79 atoms in the universe, so we're WAY beyond that.  To examine all of the possibilities in a year, you'd need to look at about 4.3x10^111 possibilities per second.  If you wanted to give yourself a little more leisurely pace, say, the lifetime of the universe (~14B years), you could take it easy at a mere 3.1x10^101 (31 googol!) possibilities per second.

So asking about how one specific result will or won't affect our seeding on selection Sunday is not as easy as it appears!  Also, you can't really ask whether beating one team is good enough to flip a comparison - what if, heaven forbid, we beat Harvard but lost all our other games? I daresay we would not win the BU comparison (or many others!) after that.

Since my last assessment was overly pessimistic on RPI, let's focus on that for a minute:

Assuming that we end up playing 33 games before selection Sunday (sweeping our playoff series), each win is worth 1/33*.25 = .007576 points in RPI.  So if we win out, our record's contribution to our RPI will be 27.5*.007576 = .2083 (26 wins and 3 ties).  Our SOS based on our 23 games played is .4857, and our remaining opponents are at .5536 (SLU), 0.5000 (CKN), 0.5652 (HU), 0.5217 (DC), 0.4483 (RPI), and 0.5333 (UC).  Assuming they keep up those win percentages, our SOS by the end of the regular season will be up to .4929, or .0072 higher than now.  Our opponent's opponent's percentage is at .506.  That will probably drop a little bit, since all the ECAC teams are just playing each other, but I'll ignore that for now.  Our final non-bonus RPI would then be: .2083 + .5*.4929 + .25*.506 = .5813.  To cancel out the fact that I didn't adjust our op-op percentage, I also didn't give our SOS a bump for the good teams that we'll face in the ECAC playoffs.  Add in a .0011 bonus for beating MSU at home, and we would end up at .5824.  As of now, that would put us in 3rd in RPI, which seems pretty consistent - there are usually only a couple of teams flirting with .6, so .5813 is not too shabby.  3rd in RPI combined with 1st in TUC (which we would almost certainly be if we won out) should be enough to flip the BU comparison back to us and earn a #1 seed.  Of course, if BU goes and wins out, too, they'll be doing it against stronger competition, so they might still edge us out.

[jtwcornell91]

[quote jkahn]
2) What would the committe do if No. Dakota ends up a possible team in our natural bracket, e.g. 5, 12 or 13 if we're #4.[/quote]

I haven't looked at this year's championship handbook, but if they followed the prescription they laid out in last years, this would only matter if North Dakota were a 4-seed (doesn't matter if they're 13, 14, 15, or 16).  In that case, they would be in Grand Forks and no WCHA team could be there as a 1-seed.  So if Minny and Wisco are in the top four, one presumably goes to Green Bay and the other to either Albany or Worcester.  The overall #4 probably lands in ND in that scenario,

Of course, the committee demonstrated last year with that "we let them settle it on the ice" horseshit that their own power trips are more important than the procedures spelled out in the handbook.

[Patrick]

I would just like to point out that, in the above post, like on uscho, our record is listed as 15-4-3 when it is actually 16-4-3.  I do not know why this is but would assume that that would have some bearing on the rankings.

[French Rage]

[quote Patrick]I would just like to point out that, in the above post, like on uscho, our record is listed as 15-4-3 when it is actually 16-4-3.  I do not know why this is but would assume that that would have some bearing on the rankings.[/quote]

RIT doesnt count.

[Ken \'70]

[quote Robb] Of course, if BU goes and wins out, too, they'll be doing it against stronger competition, so they might still edge us out.[/quote]

BU enjoys its current lofty position because it has previoulsy played a strong schedule.  That's not true for the rest of the season.  W-L-T record of their remaining RS is about 105-101-30 because they've got the RPI-killer, Northeaster, twice.  I think our remaining opponents have a higher win % than BUs.

We'll be 1 seed for sure if we win out, and in fact as long as our winning % in our remaining games is at least as high as our close competitors (BU,UNO,MSU,OSU,Ferris) we'll win all those comparisons and that will most likely make us a 1 seed.  Their's math behind that, just don't have time to explain it now.

[Robb]

Probably true.  Our playoff series should be against a better team than theirs, too - they're likely to get UMass (11-15) or Lowell (10-16-1)  (Aside: how much must it suck to be Merrimack - looking UP in the HEA standings at a team that has one win on the season!) while we should end up with someone like Yale (8-12-3), RPI (11-14-4), or Clarkson (13-13-2).  Their RPI can't go down because of that, of course, but ours might still go up.  Their possible games at the Fleet look pretty simliar to ours, too, e.g. UNH (14-10-4) and BC (16-8-2) to our Harvard (12-9-2) and Colgate (15-8-5).

So I take that back, too - looks like we have a fairly similar strength of remaining schedule as BU.  It should come down to who does better against that schedule, particularly our common opponents: Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth for us and Northeastern for them.

[Trotsky]

[quote Robb]Probably true.  Our playoff series should be against a better team than theirs, too - they're likely to get UMass (11-15) or Lowell (10-16-1)  (Aside: how much must it suck to be Merrimack - looking UP in the HEA standings at a team that has one win on the season!).[/quote]
As much as it sucks for UMass to *be* that one loser to Northeastern -- and by shut out!

[jy3]

new rankings about the michigan and michigan state wins this week.
33/22/11
still 4t but lose the RPI tie breaker. note that bu has us by .0005 rpi...thank michigan state for that bump

Rk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1t    Wisconsin    25    5t    19-7-2    .7143    1    .5927
1t    Minnesota    25    5t    18-6-4    .7143    2    .5925
3    Miami    24    1    20-5-4    .7586    3    .5741
4t    Colorado College    22    12t    18-11-1   .6167    4    .5563
4t    Cornell    22    2t    15-4-3    .7500    6    .5535
6    Boston University    21    8    16-8-2    .6538    5    .5540
7t    Michigan State    19    17    17-10-7    .6029    7    .5497
7t    Boston College    19    4    18-6-2    .7308    8    .5496
7t    Nebraska-Omaha    19    23t    15-11-4    .5667    10    .5485
10    Michigan    18    12t    17-10-3    .6167    9    .5493
11    Harvard    15    26    12-9-2    .5652    16    .5311
12t    Ohio State    14    30    14-13-4    .5161    15    .5322
12t    Providence    14    21    14-10-2    .5769    12    .5416
14    St. Cloud State    13    10t    16-9-3    .6250    14    .5327
15    Ferris State    12    23t    14-10-6    .5667    13    .5404
16t    Denver    10    15t    16-10-2    .6071    19    .5298
16t    North Dakota    10    20    18-13-1    .5781    11    .5447
18    Lake Superior    8    15t    14-8-6    .6071    17    .5308
19t    St. Lawrence    7    27t    14-11-1    .5577    18    .5303
19t    New Hampshire    7    22    14-10-4    .5714    23    .5248
21t    Alaska-Fairbanks    6    35    11-13-4 .4643    20    .5297
21t    Maine    6    9    18-10-0    .6429    21    .5274
21t    Vermont    6    7    17-8-3    .6607    22    .5249
24    Northern Michigan    5    23t    16-12-2 .5667    26    .5178
25    Holy Cross    3    2t    19-6-1    .7500    25    .5203
26    Colgate    1    10t    15-8-5    .6250    24    .5206
27    Dartmouth    0    29    11-10-2    .5217    27    .5135

[jy3]

well...the loss dropped us obviously. another factor that is huge for tonight is that clarkson became a tuc with their win. a large factor down the road is that north dakota now has the COP on us. awaiting the late games before the rankings are fully in the books after 2nite.

[calgARI '07]

I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?

[French Rage]

Im seeing 18 both with and without the bonus.

[Will]

[quote calgARI '07]I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?[/quote]

RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.

[ugarte]

[quote Will][quote calgARI '07]I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?[/quote]

RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.[/quote]For things likely addressed that I don't remember the answer to, would including RIT help or hurt us? Sure, we have the extra win, but ...

[DeltaOne81]

[quote ugarte][quote Will][quote calgARI '07]I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?[/quote]

RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.[/quote]For things likely addressed that I don't remember the answer to, would including RIT help or hurt us? Sure, we have the extra win, but ...[/quote]

According to JTW's script ( http://www.slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006 )

Adding RIT right now would add 0.0015 to our RPI, but we'd still be 11th (in RPI). So as of this moment, it would help us, but little enough to not make a difference.

[jy3]

couple of things...it would be tough to include RIT since they played some dIII schools this year. I think that if you were to include them they would meet the 25 game vs dI school minimum.

33/22/11 after the games last night

results to look for tonight.
1. cornell over SLU(T) obviously - win is good, win vs a tuc better
2. colgate over clarkson - only if we win (otherwise they overtake us in the ecachl standings) - may knock clarkson below tuc status which would be nice...
3. princeton over dc - get dc towards being out of tuc status... we lost to them. also separate us in the standings
4. nmu over neb o - neb o is ahead of cornell
5. lssu over michigan - may bunch things up as lssu will rise but michigan will fall and they are ahead of cornell
6. ferris state and notre dame - i think a notre dame upset would be good here, although some teams between us and ferris may get extra comparisons with a ferris loss
7. fairbanks and bgsu - not sure how close to tuc bgsu is...fairbanks is a long way away from a bid
8. niagara - always root for them to win to become a tuc, improve our oppopp% and possibly for them to win their tourney to become a tuc.
9. uhn merrimack - uhn needs some help. a win for them may solidify their position but it will keep their comparison over cc from flipping down the road to a cc comparison win
10 . maine uvm - a uvm win will hurt maine as they are tied for #14. this will likely help the ecachl down the road...
11. umass providence - providence is close to cornell...let them lose
12. scsu and cc - cc is ahead of cornell...
13. denver mankato - denver holds the comparison over michigan. this will likely not change that comparison.
14. minnesota and mich tech - obviously a loss by minne would be good since they are ahead of cornell.
15. tOSU wisconsin - wi is ahead of cornell... a win for tOSU may make them move a lot....
I think that is it for 2nites games. i may be wrong, didnt look into each one too much.
the biggest thing - if cornell wins and nothing else above happens I will be happy
LGR!


Rk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1    Wisconsin    27    6    19-7-2    .7143    1    .5928
2    Minnesota    26    4    19-6-4    .7241    2    .5894
3    Miami    25    2    20-5-4    .7586    3    .5753
4    Colorado College    23    10    19-11-1 .6290    4    .5639
5t    Boston University    22    7    17-8-2    .6667    5    .5566
5t    Boston College    22    3    19-6-2    .7407    6    .5550
5t    Nebraska-Omaha    22    22    16-11-4    .5806    7    .5519
8    Michigan State    20    17    17-10-7    .6029    8    .5484
9    Cornell    18    5    15-5-3    .7174    11    .5427
10    Harvard    17    21    13-9-2    .5833    15    .5350
11    Michigan    16    18    17-11-3    .5968    10    .5458
12t    Providence    14    26    14-11-2    .5556    12    .5393
12t    North Dakota    14    23    18-13-1    .5781    9    .5462
14t    St. Lawrence    13    24t    15-11-1    .5741    14    .5351
14t    Maine    13    8    19-10-0    .6552    13    .5357
14t    Ohio State    13    31    14-13-4    .5161    16    .5343
17    Denver    11    11t    17-10-2    .6207    19    .5328
18t    St. Cloud State    10    15t    16-10-3 .6034    21    .5275
18t    Ferris State    10    27t    14-11-6    .5484    17    .5343
20t    Alaska-Fairbanks    8    33    12-13-4 .4828    20    .5311
20t    New Hampshire    8    20    15-10-4    .5862    24    .5230
22    Lake Superior    7    11t    15-8-6    .6207    18    .5343
23    Holy Cross    6    1    20-6-1    .7593    22    .5236
24    Vermont    5    9    17-9-3    .6379    23    .5235
25t    Dartmouth    3    29    12-10-2    .5417    25    .5170
25t    Northern Michigan    3    27t    16-13-2 .5484    27    .5112
27t    Colgate    1    15t    15-9-5    .6034    26    .5129
27t    Clarkson    1    32    13-13-2    .5000    28    .5020