2005-2006 PWR

[nyc94]

The current USCHO projection has us in Albany. (#1 Wisconsin to Green Bay, #2 Minnesota to Grand Forks, ND, #3 Miami to Worcester)  My guess is USCHO is assuming the Committee won't distinguish between Albany and Worcester for any team that would likely have to fly to their regional.

[Josh '99]

In the immortal words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby."  Keep winning and things will take care of themselves.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote andyw2100]As the number four overall seed, why would we be in Worcester instead of Albany? I thought there was some "rule" about placing the number one seeds as close to home as possible. And while Albany may be mariginally closer than Massachusetts for whatever other school is being sent east (I haven't checked a map, and am somehwat geographically challeneged) Albany is significantly closer to Ithaca than Worcester is. So why wouldn't we wind up in Albany? What am I missing?[/quote]

[quote redGrinch]Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there? Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks. We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany. But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?[/quote]

[quote nyc94]The current USCHO projection has us in Albany. (#1 Wisconsin to Green Bay, #2 Minnesota to Grand Forks, ND, #3 Miami to Worcester)  My guess is USCHO is assuming the Committee won't distinguish between Albany and Worcester for any team that would likely have to fly to their regional.[/quote]


You all make basically the same point, and the answer is, there's no way to know for sure what the committee will do. As nyc94 said, USCHO is guessing that they won't distinquish the difference. But they could elect to follow the rules exactly and send us to Worcester (being 2 towns over from Worcester, I wouldn't mind ).

As for the Albany/RPI/ECAC connection, it doesn't force the committee to do anything - and is officially just a monetary connection for the league - but when you combine that with the point above, if the season were to end today, I wouldn't be surprised if they did put us in Albany. But again, who knows.


That being said, chances are it won't shake out just like this, so we may never know. The committee has no leeway in who makes it (unless you're a conspiracy theorist on the bonus points thing), but they do have a little bit of interpretation involved in some of the placing rules.

[Robb]

[quote redGrinch]Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there?  Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks.  We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany.  But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?[/quote]
Do we have enough data to know whether the committee would try to keep BU's bracket (1-16, 2-15, wise) together in Worcester, and that could be the deciding factor in which #1 seed gets sent to Worcester?

[nr53]

I always thought that they set location of #1 seeds before others so this shouldn't happen... of course that means it will.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote nr53]I always thought that they set location of #1 seeds before others so this shouldn't happen... of course that means it will.[/quote]

They do. Step #1 is to seat the #1 seeds in geographic order.

Doesn't mean they couldn't do somethingelse, but thems the rules.

[Robb]

A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO:  What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?  

So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany.  Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup.  So what do they do?  The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup.  Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job.  The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.  

The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.

Yikes.  I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND.  Not that that's a stretch...

[Trotsky]

That would be screw jobs in consecutive seasons.  I don't think they'd do that.  At least, not if they had any excuse not to.

Good lord, was that a quadruple negative..?

[Jordan 04]

I don't see what's so scary.  We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.

[quote Robb]A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO:  What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?  

So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany.  Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup.  So what do they do?  The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup.  Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job.  The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.  

The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.

Yikes.  I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND.  Not that that's a stretch...[/quote]

[Beeeej]

[quote Robb]The only comparison that seems mathematically out of reach is the MSU one - oh, to have that weekend in Nov to do over![/quote]

October, believe it or not.  :-)

Beeeej

[Lauren '06]

[quote Jordan 04]I don't see what's so scary.  We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.[/quote]
I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect.  ::worry::

[Cornell95]

So who wants to give us the short answer on how the 3 possible outcomes for each of tonight's Beanpot games would impact our PWR.  I assume we are rooting for NU and Harvard in these early round games, but what do I know.

[jy3]

quick and simple and hopefully near target

bc/ne - a win by northeastern would help separate bc from us by dropping their winning % and also by dropping their RPI of course. It would also help us in common opponent as we beat NE and bc would then have lost to them. I am not sure how this would change any of BCs comparisons with other teams or ours with other teams...

sucks/bu - this is a bit more complicated. A loss by BU and a win by sucks helps us for common opponent and raises the oppopp win % and opp win % for the ECAC overall. My main concern is how this will harm us in our comparison with sucks down the road.

any other takers on this?
EDIT:
also...a bc win could lift their rpi above ours and give them the COp thereby flipping the comparison
also...a bu win could lift their rpi above ours (seems unlikely) and give them the COp comparison -> flipping it as well.


here are the current comparisons with 33/22/11

Cornell    vs    Boston College
   .5538    1    RPI    0    .5518    
5-2-0    .7143    1    TUC    0    .5769    7-5-1
3-1-0    .7500    1    COp    0    .7000    3-1-1
0-0-0       0    H2H    0       0-0-0
      3    TOT    0    
cornell vs bu
5538    1    RPI    0    .5486    
5-2-0    .7143    1    TUC    0    .6000    8-5-2
2-1-1    .6250    0    COp    0    .6250    2-1-1
0-0-0       0    H2H    0       0-0-0
      2    TOT    0    

Cornell    vs    Harvard
   .5538    1    RPI    0    .5345    
4-2-0    .6667    0    TUC    1    .7222    6-2-1
10-3-2    .7333    1    COp    0    .5938    9-6-1
1-0-0       1    H2H    0       0-1-0
      3    TOT    1

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Cornell95]So who wants to give us the short answer on how the 3 possible outcomes for each of tonight's Beanpot games would impact our PWR.  I assume we are rooting for NU and Harvard in these early round games, but what do I know.[/quote]

The short answer: yup

If someone else feels like working out all the details, feel free

[jkahn]

Short answer - RPI is bases 50% on average winning percentage of opponents.  Since we played Northeastern once and have two games vs. Harvard, their wins help our RPI and their loses hurt it.  We may end up in some tight RPI battles, which is a key criteria in PWR, as it is also used as a tiebreaker.  Only downside is the risk of losing the comparison to Harvard - but I'll be rooting for NE and H tonight.