2005-2006 PWR

[Liz '05]

[quote Section A Banshee][quote Jordan 04]I don't see what's so scary.  We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.[/quote]
I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect.  ::worry::[/quote]

With the caveat that I've only played about half of the pep band's songs, and that I last played them 5+(?) years ago, and assuming I'm not in class at the time, I'd bring my flute to Grand Forks if you'd bring a flip folder of music

[Jim Hyla]

[quote Liz '05][quote Section A Banshee][quote Jordan 04]I don't see what's so scary.  We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.[/quote]
I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect.  ::worry::[/quote]

With the caveat that I've only played about half of the pep band's songs, and that I last played them 5+(?) years ago, and assuming I'm not in class at the time, I'd bring my flute to Grand Forks if you'd bring a flip folder of music [/quote]And that's not a scary prospect?:-D

[French Rage]

I dont know if this has been mentioned, but we are currently tied 1-1 with Miami, them winning RPI, us winning TUC, and COp being a tie (them winning the tie on RPI).  We next play SLU/Tech who they were 1-0-1 against, so a sweep is crucial to win that comparision; additionally, they play 2 against MSU the week after, so MSU taking at least 3 is crucial there.  If we were to flip that, we'd would be tied with Wisconsion for 1st with 25, our only losing comparision being against Minnesota, who plays two against Denver soon, so we should root for Denver there.

And so forth.

[Trotsky]

[quote French Rage]And so forth.[/quote]
Po tee weet.

Are either/both of the following true?:

If Cornell wins their final 6 RS games and sweeps through the 4 game ECAC playoffs, they:

1) are guaranteed a 1-seed?
2) are guaranteed to stay East?

[KeithK]

I don't think it guarantees a #1 seed.  I can imagine how we could lose both the BC and Wisc comparisons even with 10 more wins.  Wisconsin just has to swap either the TUC criteria (5-2-0 vs. 12-5-2) or the COp criteria (2-1-1 vs. 3-2) and maintain an RPI lead to do win that comparison.  Either seems possible with the right combination of games.  BC needs to flip two of the three comparisons.  But RPI is very close (.5527 vs. .5518) and could easily switch due to SoS, while COp is also close (3-1 vs. 3-1-1).  Needless to say Miami and Minny would also have to hold their advantages over us.

So I do not think running the table would guarantee us a #1 seed.  That said, I think a #1 seed would be extremely unlikely because at least one of the nearby teams is likely to slip up just enough to keep/put us ahead.

As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote KeithK]As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.[/quote]

That's not true... while we're talking dream land of sweeping the rest of the season (not that it couldn't happen, just that it'd be an awfully nice dream), a #1 seed  would pretty much guarantee us eastern ice unless we get beaten out for that by two other eastern teams. Not impossible, but not too too likely. I guess RPI making a #1 seed could throw a wrench in the works, but, um... yeah.

[KeithK]

[quote DeltaOne81][quote KeithK]As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.[/quote]

That's not true... while we're talking dream land of sweeping the rest of the season (not that it couldn't happen, just that it'd be an awfully nice dream), a #1 seed  would pretty much guarantee us eastern ice unless we get beaten out for that by two other eastern teams. Not impossible, but not too too likely. I guess RPI making a #1 seed could throw a wrench in the works, but, um... yeah.[/quote]Agreed, a #1 seed would guarantee that we would stay east unless two other eastern teams (BU, BC probably) passed us.  But I just finished saying that I don't think a clean sweep guarantees us a #1 seed.  So a sweep also won't guarantee that we stay east.

[French Rage]

[quote Trotsky][quote French Rage]And so forth.[/quote]
Po tee weet.

Are either/both of the following true?:

If Cornell wins their final 6 RS games and sweeps through the 4 game ECAC playoffs, they:

1) are guaranteed a 1-seed?
2) are guaranteed to stay East?[/quote]

Po tee weet??

[redGrinch]

[quote Robb]A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO:  What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?  

So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany.  Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup.  So what do they do?  The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup.  Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job.  The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.  

The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.

Yikes.  I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND.  Not that that's a stretch...[/quote]
possible but I would think unlikely - more likely, they'd let UND play the 5 seed, make them play in Grand Forks, and then if they win, play Minnesota; the committee historically has seemed more willing to screw over 2 seeds (like us last year!)

more reason for us to win out, and not get put in the 2 seed position where they can mess with us (unless as been mentioned before, somehow 3 eastern teams are in tHE PWR top 4).

[jkahn]

[quote KeithK]Agreed, a #1 seed would guarantee that we would stay east unless two other eastern teams (BU, BC probably) passed us. [/quote]
Even a #1 isn't a guarantee.  Some things that could screw that up:
1) Miami is closer to Albany and Worcester than it is to Grand Forks.
2) What would the committe do if No. Dakota ends up a possible team in our natural bracket, e.g. 5, 12 or 13 if we're #4.
3) The committee can do anything it wants.  Last year we were 5 and BU was 12.  They could've just switched 5-12 for 6-11 and kept us east, but probably didn't want to do that since 6 was Michigan who they wanted in Grand Rapids.  We ended up with a 5-10 match-up and a rationalization that it was about keeping 4 with 5. It's really not worth speculating until we see the final PWR and even then, there can be surprises.

[jy3]

33/22/11 after the first beanpot game

Rk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1t    Wisconsin    26    5t    19-7-2    .7143    1    .5925
1t    Minnesota    26    5t    18-6-4    .7143    2    .5921
3    Miami    25    1    20-5-4    .7586    3    .5755
4    Cornell    24    2t    15-4-3    .7500    5    .5537
5    Colorado College    23    12    18-11-1 .6167    4    .5562
6t    Boston University    21    9    15-8-2    .6400    7    .5488
6t    Michigan    21    16    16-10-3    .6034    6    .5496
8    Boston College    20    4    18-6-2    .7308    8    .5487
9    Nebraska-Omaha    19    24t    15-11-4    .5667    9    .5480
10t    Michigan State    17    18t    16-10-7    .5909    10    .5462
10t    Harvard    17    18t    12-8-2    .5909    15    .5346
12t    Ohio State    15    29    14-12-4    .5333    14    .5354
12t    Providence    15    22    14-10-2    .5769    13    .5407
14    St. Cloud State    14    10t    16-9-3    .6250    16    .5328
15    Ferris State    13    24t    14-10-6    .5667    12    .5408
16    North Dakota    11    21    18-13-1    .5781    11    .5453
17t    New Hampshire    10    23    14-10-4    .5714    22    .5248
17t    Lake Superior    10    14t    14-8-6    .6071    17    .5323
17t    Denver    10    14t    16-10-2    .6071    19    .5294
20    St. Lawrence    8    27t    14-11-1    .5577    18    .5310
21    Maine    7    8    18-10-0    .6429    21    .5263
22t    Northern Michigan    6    24t    16-12-2 .5667    26    .5176
22t    Alaska-Fairbanks    6    35    11-13-4 .4643    20    .5285
24    Vermont    5    7    17-8-3    .6607    23    .5244
25    Bowling Green    4    38t    12-16-1    .4310    28    .5001
26    Holy Cross    3    2t    19-6-1    .7500    25    .5197
27    Colgate    2    10t    15-8-5    .6250    24    .5216
28    Dartmouth    0    30    11-10-2    .5217    27    .5145

[jy3]

as predicted... the red fall

33/22/11

Rk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1t    Wisconsin    26    5t    19-7-2    .7143    1    .5925
1t    Minnesota    26    5t    18-6-4    .7143    2    .5920
3    Miami    25    1    20-5-4    .7586    3    .5755
4t    Colorado College    23    12    18-11-1    .6167    4    .5564
4t    Boston University    23    8    16-8-2    .6538    5    .5540
4t    Cornell    23    2t    15-4-3    .7500    6    .5529
7    Michigan    21    16    16-10-3    .6034    7    .5495
8    Boston College    20    4    18-6-2    .7308    8    .5494
9    Nebraska-Omaha    19    23t    15-11-4    .5667    9    .5479
10    Michigan State    17    18t    16-10-7    .5909    10    .5461
11    Harvard    16    26    12-9-2    .5652    17    .5311
12t    Ohio State    15    29    14-12-4    .5333    14    .5354
12t    Providence    15    21    14-10-2    .5769    12    .5416
14    St. Cloud State    14    10t    16-9-3    .6250    15    .5327
15    Ferris State    13    23t    14-10-6    .5667    13    .5408
16    North Dakota    11    20    18-13-1    .5781    11    .5445
17t    Lake Superior    10    14t    14-8-6    .6071    16    .5323
17t    Denver    10    14t    16-10-2    .6071    19    .5297
19    New Hampshire    9    22    14-10-4    .5714    23    .5247
20    St. Lawrence    8    27t    14-11-1    .5577    18    .5303
21    Maine    7    9    18-10-0    .6429    21    .5275
22t    Vermont    6    7    17-8-3    .6607    22    .5248
22t    Northern Michigan    6    23t    16-12-2 .5667    26    .5176
22t    Alaska-Fairbanks    6    35    11-13-4 .4643    20    .5285
25    Bowling Green    4    38t    12-16-1    .4310    28    .5001
26    Holy Cross    3    2t    19-6-1    .7500    25    .5196
27    Colgate    2    10t    15-8-5    .6250    24    .5209
28    Dartmouth    0    30    11-10-2    .5217    27    .5134

[jy3]

here is the comparison that changed for cornell:

Boston University    vs    Cornell
   .5540    1    RPI    0    .5529    
9-5-2    .6250    0    TUC    1    .7143    5-2-0
3-1-1    .7000    1    COp    0    .6250    2-1-1
0-0-0       0    H2H    0       0-0-0
      2    TOT    1

[ugarte]

So if we beat Harvard will that boost our RPI enough to flip the comparison back to us?

[Jacob '06]

[quote ugarte]So if we beat Harvard will that boost our RPI enough to flip the comparison back to us?[/quote]

It would at least make our cop a tie which makes it 1-1 so they still win on RPI if theirs is higher.