ECAC Playoff Possibilities and Race in a Nutshell Thread

[Jim Hyla]

The latest on Yale's Malcolm from New Haven Register.  

Short enough to just post it.

Yale goalie Jeff Malcolm doubtful for the weekend
Yale coach Keith Allain isn't expecting goaltender Jeff Malcolm to return for this weekend's games at Quinnipiac and Princeton. But the senior did some limited team work in practice Wednesday for the first time since his injury on Feb. 1.

Allain ruled Malcolm out for Quinnipiac on Friday, and has yet to decide on Nick Maricic or Colin Wilson as his starter. Though he didn't completely rule out Malcolm for Princeton, Allain hinted it's unlikely.

"He's getting closer, and when he's healthy he'll play," Allain said. "There's a chance (he could play Saturday) but I wouldn't count on that either."

Malcolm's work Wednesday included getting on the ice to face a shots. Allain said he's mostly doing conditioning and "warm-up stuff", with a possibility his workload could increase today.

[Trotsky]

In the absence of the Real Thing, a guide to our rooting interest in this weekend's games.  Red indicates our rooting choice.

Standings prior to weekend:

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                        Conference Only                    Overall
                    Pts  GP  Record  Win%  GF- GA   GP  Record  Win%  GF- GA
 1 Quinnipiac        32  18 15- 1- 2 .889  61- 25   30 22- 4- 4 .800  87- 47
 2 RPI               21  18  9- 6- 3 .583  48- 42   30 14-11- 5 .550  84- 73
 3 St. Lawrence      20  18  8- 6- 4 .556  52- 54   30 15-11- 4 .567  90- 83
   Union             20  18  8- 6- 4 .556  52- 43   30 15-10- 5 .583  88- 66
 5 Dartmouth         19  18  8- 7- 3 .528  50- 45   25 12- 9- 4 .560  74- 61
   Yale              19  18  9- 8- 1 .528  49- 51   25 13- 9- 3 .580  73- 71
 7 Clarkson          17  18  7- 8- 3 .472  52- 52   30  8-15- 7 .383  80- 91
   Princeton         17  18  7- 8- 3 .472  44- 49   25  9-12- 4 .440  62- 70
 9 Brown             15  18  5- 8- 5 .417  41- 42   25  9-11- 5 .460  57- 61
10 Colgate           13  18  5-10- 3 .361  42- 53   30 13-13- 4 .500  96- 81
   Cornell           13  18  5-10- 3 .361  36- 49   25  9-13- 3 .420  57- 68
12 Harvard           10  18  4-12- 2 .278  34- 56   25  7-15- 3 .340  56- 81


Games

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Friday, February 22:
  Brown *              at [b][color=#FF0000]Princeton[/color][/b]            EC            bad (kind of)
  [b][color=#FF0000]Dartmouth[/color][/b]            at Clarkson *           EC            bad
  Harvard              at [b][color=#FF0000]St. Lawrence[/color][/b] *       EC            good
  RPI                  at [b][color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color][/b] *            EC            good
  [b][color=#FF0000]Union[/color][/b]                at Colgate *            EC            bad
  Yale                 at [b][color=#FF0000]Quinnipiac[/color][/b]           EC            still going on and we don't really care

Saturday, February 23:
  Brown                at [b][color=#FF0000]Quinnipiac[/color][/b]           EC            7:00 pm ET
  [b][color=#FF0000]Dartmouth[/color][/b]            at St. Lawrence         EC            7:00 pm ET
  [b][color=#FF0000]Harvard[/color][/b]              at Clarkson             EC            7:00 pm ET
  [b][color=#FF0000]RPI[/color][/b]                  at Colgate              EC            7:00 pm ET
  Union                at [b][color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color][/b]              EC            7:00 pm ET
  [b][color=#FF0000]Yale[/color][/b]                 at Princeton            EC            7:00 pm ET


Edit: changes based on replies

SLU > Drt flipped to Drt > SLU
Brn > Prn flipped to Prn > Brn
Actuals noted by *

[nyc94]

Not sure about the games not directly involving our prey.

Shouldn't we root for St. Lawrence over Harvard?  We aren't likely to catch St. Lawrence, we don't want Harvard to catch us, and well, it's Harvard.

[KeithK]

Not sure about the games not directly involving our prey.

Shouldn't we root for St. Lawrence over Harvard?  We aren't likely to catch St. Lawrence, we don't want Harvard to catch us, and well, it's Harvard.

Besides, even if Harvard were 7 points behind us instead of 3 you'd want to root against just because.

[Trotsky]

Not sure about the games not directly involving our prey.

Shouldn't we root for St. Lawrence over Harvard?  We aren't likely to catch St. Lawrence, we don't want Harvard to catch us, and well, it's Harvard.

Other than it being Harvard, I was thinking in terms of the tiebreak effects of top/middle/bottom four (which still exist, I think?)

I'm proceeding under the assumption that if we are worrying about Harvard then it's all gone to hell anyway.

[Give My Regards]

I think I would root for Princeton over Brown.  The Big Red is going to have to climb over Brown and somebody to get home ice for the first round (likely a pipe dream but what the hey...) and right now, Clarkson offers a slightly easier path than Princeton does.  Cornell loses the head-to-head tie with Princeton, but the one against Clarkson will probably come down to record against the top 4, which would probably favor the Big Red, especially if Dartmouth is among the top 4.

[Trotsky]

I think I would root for Princeton over Brown.  The Big Red is going to have to climb over Brown and somebody to get home ice for the first round (likely a pipe dream but what the hey...) and right now, Clarkson offers a slightly easier path than Princeton does.  Cornell loses the head-to-head tie with Princeton, but the one against Clarkson will probably come down to record against the top 4, which would probably favor the Big Red, especially if Dartmouth is among the top 4.

Which would also dictate rooting for Dartmouth over SLU.  Thanks.

I have changed those results above.

[Trotsky]

Code Select Expand

Standings after Friday's games:

 5. 19 Clarkson
    19 Dartmouth
    19 Yale
 8. 17 Brown
    17 Princeton
10. 15 Colgate
    15 Cornell

Saturday, February 23:

  Brown     at [color=#FF0000]Quinnipiac[/color]
  Dartmouth at [color=#FF0000]St. Lawrence[/color]
  [color=#FF0000]Harvard[/color]   at Clarkson
  [color=#FF0000]RPI[/color]       at Colgate
  Union     at [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color]
  [color=#FF0000]Yale[/color]      at Princeton

Fun fact: it is possible for all 7 teams to be separated by just 2 points after tomorrow night.

[Give My Regards]

According to the 2/23 ECAC Hockey weekend update, it's possible for 10 of the 12 teams to finish anywhere from a first-round bye to a first-round road series.  Quinnipiac has obviously already wrapped up the top seed, and Harvard can't finish higher than 10th.

[Jim Hyla]

According to the 2/23 ECAC Hockey weekend update, it's possible for 10 of the 12 teams to finish anywhere from a first-round bye to a first-round road series.  Quinnipiac has obviously already wrapped up the top seed, and Harvard can't finish higher than 10th.

Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Side note, there is a North Dakota substitute for the playoff program, but it doesn't do tie breakers. I'll wait till tonight.

[Give My Regards]

Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me.  I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye.  Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40  Quinnipiac
28  St. Lawrence
25  RPI
21  Cornell
21  Union
20  Clarkson
20  Princeton
20  Yale
19  Colgate
19  Dartmouth
17  Brown
14  Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record.  (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

[Jim Hyla]

Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me.  I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye.  Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40  Quinnipiac
28  St. Lawrence
25  RPI
21  Cornell
21  Union
20  Clarkson
20  Princeton
20  Yale
19  Colgate
19  Dartmouth
17  Brown
14  Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record.  (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

Thanks, you have more energy than I do.:-P

[Rita]

Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me.  I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye.  Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40  Quinnipiac
28  St. Lawrence
25  RPI
21  Cornell
21  Union
20  Clarkson
20  Princeton
20  Yale
19  Colgate
19  Dartmouth
17  Brown
14  Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record.  (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

Thanks, you have more energy than I do.:-P

And more optimism than I have. I'm resigned to 1st round playoff games on the road.

[Scersk '97]

Unfortunately I suspect that none of these stories do more than say Cornell has 15 pts and Union, the fourth place team, has 20. Since we can get 6 more points, we could get ahead of them and finish fourth. But none of that takes into account what the other teams would do. Some of them have to win as well, and would likely get ahead of us. Short of having our good old reliable ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script, it's too time consuming for me too figure out. However, I suspect we can't get a bye. After tonight it'll be a lot easier to see.

Yeah, that thought occurred to me.  I certainly didn't check all the scenarios, but just for the hell of it, I did find a way in which Cornell could still get a bye.  Predictably, this gets bumpy, but here's what we want:

2/23:
Cornell over Union
Quinnipiac over Brown
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Harvard over Clarkson
Yale and Princeton tie
RPI-Colgate -- don't really care, give it to RPI to take Colgate out of the picture

3/1:
Cornell over Brown
Colgate over Yale
RPI over Clarkson
Princeton over Dartmouth
St. Lawrence over Union
Quinnipiac-Harvard -- don't really care, give it to Quinnipiac

3/2:
Cornell over Yale
Colgate over Brown
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Harvard over Princeton
Clarkson and Union tie
St. Lawrence-RPI -- don't really care, give it to St. Lawrence

...which gives these final standings:

40  Quinnipiac
28  St. Lawrence
25  RPI
21  Cornell
21  Union
20  Clarkson
20  Princeton
20  Yale
19  Colgate
19  Dartmouth
17  Brown
14  Harvard

with Cornell taking #4 over Union thanks to a 2-0 head-to-head record.  (Don't know or care about the other ties)

It's a measure of how freaking unlikely this whole scenario is to note that, if the above does play out, it will be the first time since the ECAC-HE split, and probably the first time in league history, that the #4 seed finished with a sub-0.500 league record.

Actually, the second tie, Clarkson vs. Union, is unnecessary.  (Good, because ties are a bit rare.)

If we tie Clarkson, we'll beat them on the top 4 (3) with that top 4 (3) scenario.

Indeed, if we win out, the only team that we tie unfavorably with would be Princeton, I think, because we have a comparatively good record vs. SLU and RPI.  (And everyone has a poor record vs. Quinnipiac.)

[Scersk '97]

Whelp, great weekend.  Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.