ECAC Playoff Possibilities and Race in a Nutshell Thread

[Give My Regards]

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  Hell no!

[BearLover]

So basically Cornell needs to beat Brown, and probably beat Yale too, and even then a home playoff series isn't guaranteed.  The boys have been playing better lately, though...

[Jim Hyla]

Here's the SiouxSports ECAC playoff possibilities program. I don't believe it does tie-breakers, so you'll have to do that yourself. With the closeness of the teams, that could be a lot of work.

edit: Malcolm is back in net for Yale. However 17 saves on 20 shots against Princeton is not up to his standard this year.

[jtwcornell91]

From the ashes of slack...

I think it works now.  Many thanks to Age for hosting:

http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2013/ecac.cgi
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2013/ecac.nutshell

[Josh '99]

Whelp, great weekend.  Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

You're not going to believe this, but it looks like the fat lady is still only humming (loudly).  While a Cornell-Yale tie goes Yale's way, it is possible for those two to finish in a four-way tie for fourth place along with Dartmouth and either Union or Clarkson... and in that completely ridiculous scenario, head-to-head results would give the #4 seed to the Big Red.

As for Tom's six-way tie, that gets gross, but from 4 to 9, the seeds would go Clarkson, Yale, Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth, Union.

Technically speaking you don't need Union or Clarkson.  A three-way tiebreaker between Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth would also go to Cornell, but as far as I can figure the only way that happens is a three-way tie for fifth with Union in 4th, and where's the fun in that?

It's an implausible scenario, but not an impossible one that requires Harvard to beat Quinnipiac or anything.  Though it does require them not to lose to Princeton.  Actually, the most implausible part (much as I hate to say it) might be Cornell winning at Yale and Brown after getting no points from that home weekend.  That puts Cornell at 21 points, tied with what Yale and Dartmouth already have.  Beyond that:  

- Quinnipiac-Harvard doesn't matter, but call it a Quinnipiac win for the sake of argument.
- Colgate needs to beat Yale to keep Yale at 21 points.  Also implausible.
- Dartmouth needs to lose to both Quinnipiac (entirely likely) and Princeton (less likely but not implausible) to stay at 21 points.
- Harvard needs to at least tie Princeton (somewhat implausible); if Princeton wins, they're in the tie at 21 points too, and that screws up the tiebreaker for Cornell because they swept Cornell.
- Colgate-Brown doesn't matter (going with the above assumptions).  Call it a tie for the sake of argument.
- St. Lawrence-RPI doesn't matter (again going with the above assumptions), call it a tie.
- Our three unresolved games now are Clarkson-RPI, St. Lawrence-Union, Clarkson-Union.  Union can't pick up more than one point, or they finish with 22 points or more, ahead of Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth.  Also, Clarkson can't beat RPI, or they'll have 21 points before their game with Union, and one of them will finish with over 21.  Scenarios that are left:

RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union:  Union joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union:  Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points

If you add Princeton to any of the above ties (whether to form a five-way tie or a six-way tie), Yale wins the tiebreaker by virtue of their addition.

So if you want to see the implausible first-round bye, on Friday root for:
Cornell over Brown, for obvious reasons.
Quinnipiac over Harvard, because it doesn't matter so root against Harvard.
Colgate over Yale, to keep Yale at 21 points.
Princeton over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
RPI over Clarkson, because a Clarkson win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.
St. Lawrence over Union, because a Union win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.

Then on Saturday root for:
Cornell over Yale, for obvious reasons.
Harvard over Princeton, because a Princeton win (coupled with one on Friday) adds them to the tiebreaker and knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye.
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
Clarkson not to lose to Union, with the particulars depending on the Friday results.
As noted above, the Colgate-Brown and St. Lawrence-RPI games don't matter, so take your pick.

Sorry about the marathon post.  One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th.  So take heart, and have faith in our guys, and maybe something good will happen.

[Jim Hyla]

Whelp, great weekend.  Unfortunately, our outside chance at a first-round bye has slipped away with Yale's victory, given that wins are the first tiebreak past head-to-head now.

You're not going to believe this, but it looks like the fat lady is still only humming (loudly).  While a Cornell-Yale tie goes Yale's way, it is possible for those two to finish in a four-way tie for fourth place along with Dartmouth and either Union or Clarkson... and in that completely ridiculous scenario, head-to-head results would give the #4 seed to the Big Red.

As for Tom's six-way tie, that gets gross, but from 4 to 9, the seeds would go Clarkson, Yale, Princeton, Cornell, Dartmouth, Union.

Technically speaking you don't need Union or Clarkson.  A three-way tiebreaker between Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth would also go to Cornell, but as far as I can figure the only way that happens is a three-way tie for fifth with Union in 4th, and where's the fun in that?

It's an implausible scenario, but not an impossible one that requires Harvard to beat Quinnipiac or anything.  Though it does require them not to lose to Princeton.  Actually, the most implausible part (much as I hate to say it) might be Cornell winning at Yale and Brown after getting no points from that home weekend.  That puts Cornell at 21 points, tied with what Yale and Dartmouth already have.  Beyond that:  

- Quinnipiac-Harvard doesn't matter, but call it a Quinnipiac win for the sake of argument.
- Colgate needs to beat Yale to keep Yale at 21 points.  Also implausible.
- Dartmouth needs to lose to both Quinnipiac (entirely likely) and Princeton (less likely but not implausible) to stay at 21 points.
- Harvard needs to at least tie Princeton (somewhat implausible); if Princeton wins, they're in the tie at 21 points too, and that screws up the tiebreaker for Cornell because they swept Cornell.
- Colgate-Brown doesn't matter (going with the above assumptions).  Call it a tie for the sake of argument.
- St. Lawrence-RPI doesn't matter (again going with the above assumptions), call it a tie.
- Our three unresolved games now are Clarkson-RPI, St. Lawrence-Union, Clarkson-Union.  Union can't pick up more than one point, or they finish with 22 points or more, ahead of Cornell and Yale and Dartmouth.  Also, Clarkson can't beat RPI, or they'll have 21 points before their game with Union, and one of them will finish with over 21.  Scenarios that are left:

RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union:  Union joins a four-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI beats Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence beats Union, Clarkson ties Union:  Clarkson and Union join a five-way tie, Cornell wins tiebreaker
RPI ties Clarkson, St. Lawrence ties Union, Clarkson beats Union: Clarkson finishes alone in fourth with 22 points

If you add Princeton to any of the above ties (whether to form a five-way tie or a six-way tie), Yale wins the tiebreaker by virtue of their addition.

So if you want to see the implausible first-round bye, on Friday root for:
Cornell over Brown, for obvious reasons.
Quinnipiac over Harvard, because it doesn't matter so root against Harvard.
Colgate over Yale, to keep Yale at 21 points.
Princeton over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
RPI over Clarkson, because a Clarkson win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.
St. Lawrence over Union, because a Union win knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye and a tie makes it difficult.

Then on Saturday root for:
Cornell over Yale, for obvious reasons.
Harvard over Princeton, because a Princeton win (coupled with one on Friday) adds them to the tiebreaker and knocks Cornell out of contention for a bye.
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth, to keep Dartmouth at 21 points.
Clarkson not to lose to Union, with the particulars depending on the Friday results.
As noted above, the Colgate-Brown and St. Lawrence-RPI games don't matter, so take your pick.

Sorry about the marathon post.  One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th.  So take heart, and have faith in our guys, and maybe something good will happen.

Thanks, but I might root for Harvard over Q, to give them some idea that they could beat PU.

[Josh '99]

Thanks, but I might root for Harvard over Q, to give them some idea that they could beat PU.

Good though, although with the inflated self-worth of a typical Hahvahd man, I don't know if we need to worry about confidence being an issue.  :-}

[billhoward]

Josh, a) awesome post (thank god you didn't send it as multiple tweets) and b) good to see work doesn't get in the way of what's important.

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

[andyw2100]

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

I think you think wrong there, Bill.

Josh said: "One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th."

Every other game being won by the team higher in the standings is one huge "if."

Josh's post was great. I just didn't want anyone to read your comment, Bill,  on the summary and misinterpret it. Beating Brown and taking at least a point at Yale does not give us a lock on 7th.

[Josh '99]

Josh's post was great.

Really?  I thought it was blathering and overlong, but what does my opinion matter?  :-D

[billhoward]

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

I think you think wrong there, Bill.

Josh said: "One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th."

Every other game being won by the team higher in the standings is one huge "if."

Josh's post was great. I just didn't want anyone to read your comment, Bill,  on the summary and misinterpret it. Beating Brown and taking at least a point at Yale does not give us a lock on 7th.

As in: a team lower than / even with Cornell could pick up points and get past us or make up an unfavorable H2H comparison (Princeton, 1 point back)? If so, makes sense.

[Trotsky]

Josh's post was great.

Really?  I thought it was blathering and overlong, but what does my opinion matter?  :-D

It can be both.  Some of us have made a posting career of it.  

[Tom Lento]

Also nice with the one line summary about how a win at Brown and tie/better at Yale is good for seventh (at least, I think). That was easy to understand.

I think you think wrong there, Bill.

Josh said: "One more hypothetical situation: if Cornell beats Brown and doesn't lose to Yale, and every other game is won by the team higher in the standings, Cornell would finish in 7th."

Every other game being won by the team higher in the standings is one huge "if."

Josh's post was great. I just didn't want anyone to read your comment, Bill,  on the summary and misinterpret it. Beating Brown and taking at least a point at Yale does not give us a lock on 7th.

As in: a team lower than / even with Cornell could pick up points and get past us or make up an unfavorable H2H comparison (Princeton, 1 point back)? If so, makes sense.

Cornell and Princeton both have 17 points right now. If both win out it's possible for them to finish the season tied for 8th with 21 points, in which case Princeton would host Cornell in the first round by virtue of having a better H2H record.