2005-2006 PWR - playoffs edition!

[jy3]

here is the new thread. old thread is -> here http://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,79886

current rankings with .0033/.0022/.0011 bonus - 3/18/06 - after all games
note: hahvhad SUCKS is now the pink and not the crimson
Note2: clarkson NOT a TUC, niagara NOT a tuc, bemidji is due to their autobirth
Rk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1    Wisconsin    28    5    26-10-3    .7051    1    .5788*
2    Minnesota    27    1    27-8-5    .7375    2    .5775*
3    Boston University    26    4    25-9-4    .7105    3    .5712
4    Michigan State    25    8    24-11-8    .6512    4    .5703
5   Harvard    24    9    21-11-2    .6471    5 .5664
6t    Miami    22    2    26-8-4    .7368    6    .5620
6t    North Dakota    22    11    27-15-1    .6395    7    .5602
6t    Cornell    22    7    20-8-4    .6875    8 .5517
9    Michigan    20    19    21-14-5    .5875    9    .5479
10 Colorado College    19    14    24-15-2    .6098    10    .5461
11    Boston College    18    10    23-12-3    .6447    11    .5444
12t    Maine    16    6    26-11-2    .6923    12    .5428
12t    New Hampshire    16    16    20-12-7    .6026    13    .5405
12t    Nebraska-Omaha    16    21t    20-14-6    .5750    15    .5361
15t    Dartmouth    12    15    19-12-2    .6061    14    .5373
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15t    Denver    12    20    21-15-3    .5769    17    .5274
15t Northern Michigan    12    21t    22-16-2    .5750    21    .5233
18 St. Cloud State    11    23    22-16-4    .5714    18    .5263
19 Alaska-Fairbanks    10    28    18-16-5    .5256    19    .5244
20 Ferris State    9    29    17-15-8    .5250    20    .5235
21t    Holy Cross    7    3    26-9-2    .7297    16    .5333*
21t    St. Lawrence    7    25t    20-16-2    .5526    22 .5183*
23    Ohio State    6    37    15-19-5    .4487    24    .5114
24    Vermont    5    25t    18-14-6    .5526    25    .5076
25    Lake Superior    4    30t    15-14-7    .5139    27    .5059
26t    Colgate    3    18    20-13-6    .5897    23    .5171
26t    Providence    3    30t    17-16-3    .5139    26    .5067
28t    Bemidji State    2    17    20-13-3    .5972    33    .4945
28t Minnesota State    2    33    17-18-4    .4872    28    .5032



current rankings with 3/2/1 bonus
nRk    Team    PWR    Record    RPI
Rk    W-L-T    Win %    Rk    RPI
1    Wisconsin    28    5    26-10-3    .7051    1    .5782*
2    Minnesota    27    1    27-8-5    .7375    2    .5772*
3    Boston University    26    4    25-9-4    .7105    3    .5707
4    Michigan State    25    8    24-11-8    .6512    4    .5698
5   Harvard   24    9    21-11-2    .6471    5    .5655
6t    Miami    22    2    26-8-4    .7368    6    .5620
6t    North Dakota    22    11    27-15-1    .6395    7    .5596
6t    Cornell    22 7 20-8-4    .6875    8    .5516
9    Michigan    20    19    21-14-5    .5875    9    .5478
10    Colorado College    19 14    24-15-2    .6098    10    .5453
11    Boston College    18    10    23-12-3    .6447    11    .5444
12t    Maine    16    6    26-11-2    .6923    12    .5428
12t    New Hampshire    16    16    20-12-7    .6026    13    .5403
12t    Nebraska-Omaha    16    21t    20-14-6    .5750    15    .5360
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15t    Dartmouth    12    15    19-12-2    .6061    14    .5373
15t    Denver    12    20    21-15-3    .5769    17    .5274
15t    Northern Michigan    12 21t    22-16-2    .5750    21    .5233
18    St. Cloud State    11 23    22-16-4    .5714    18    .5263
19    Alaska-Fairbanks    10 28    18-16-5    .5256    19    .5241
20    Ferris State    9    29    17-15-8    .5250    20    .5235
21t    Holy Cross    7    3    26-9-2    .7297    16    .5330*
21t    St. Lawrence 7    25t    20-16-2    .5526    22    .5180*
23    Ohio State    6    37    15-19-5    .4487    24    .5111
24    Vermont    5    25t    18-14-6    .5526    25    .5075
25    Lake Superior    4    30t    15-14-7    .5139    27    .5059
26t    Colgate    3    18    20-13-6    .5897    23    .5171
26t    Providence    3    30t    17-16-3    .5139    26    .5067
28t    Bemidji State    2    17    20-13-3    .5972    33    .4945
28t    Minnesota State    2    33    17-18-4 .4872    28    .5028

Links:
uscho pwr http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php
sioux sports pwr http://www.siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr.php
uscho krach http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=krach
usa today poll http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=usatoday&week=poll
uscho poll http://www.uscho.com/rankings/
ecac possibilities script for playoffs http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/ecac.cgi
build your own pairwise http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/rankings.diy.shtml:-D

[Dpperk29]

just playing around with the build your own pwr thing. if we had beaten michigan state both games, we would be in 2nd place. I used all the default settings, just changed the score of that game to MS 2 COR 3

wow... that's nipping is in the ass...

[calgARI '07]

If they win out, what are the chances of them finishing in the 6-3 range?  If they sweep the first round and split in Albany, what are the chances?  I know it will probably depend on who the opponents are, but I'm assuming they will have two of Harvard, Colgate, Dartmouth, and SLU.

[Jordan 04]

Ok, completely honest question here, which requires that preface because otherwise it could come across as some type of flaming:

Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this?  Who cares?

Personally, I'll pay attention to bands and seeds and regionals and opponents, and opponents' opponents in two situations -- if we start to fall towards borderline at-large, or if we start to rise to the top 4.

Otherwise, in a word, whatever.  We'll play where we're sent, and there's no "better" or "worse" regional or set of opponents. If we want to make noise come March and (knock on wood) April, we'll have to beat good teams; that's not rocket science, obviously, but it makes all the PWR machinations seem like a waste of time. After all, who's to say that going out to Minnesota last year to play UM on their home ice wasn't the best possible scenario, taking all the pressure off the Big Red and nearly vaulting them to a Frozen Four?

All that being said, I'm glad we have so many folks around here willing to put the time in to figure out countless combinations and permutations.  It's fun reading

[/semi-rant]

:-)

[calgARI '07]

Because look what happened last year.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote calgARI '07]If they win out, what are the chances of them finishing in the 6-3 range?  If they sweep the first round and split in Albany, what are the chances?  I know it will probably depend on who the opponents are, but I'm assuming they will have two of Harvard, Colgate, Dartmouth, and SLU.[/quote]

PM me and I'll tell ya :-}

Sorry, Ari. Ya made it too easy.

Anyway, we currently lose to all the teams above us, and UND. Basically, in all those cases, winning RPI is about the only way for us to flip it.

Running it through JTW's script, using the mostly likely "win out scenario", I'm adding two wins over Union, one over Colgate and one over Dmouth. Would raise our RPI to .5568 and bring us to 6th.

Throwing in a few more Union, Colgate, and Dartmouth wins before then couldn't hurt either. But we would need some loses by the other teams. Luckily, with 3 or 4 WCHA and at least two CCHA teams in close competition, some loses are guaranteed.

There's one exception, which is that we could win the Miami comparison on Common Opponents. That could be helped by Miami playing and losing to MSU (plus that would help our RPI more). Also an over .500 record against Clarkson, SLU, or RPI would help us there too.


All in all, the guys just gotta show up and win and 3-6 (or, well, 6) is likely. Anything less, and probably not. I'm less interested in looking too deeply at what needs to happen elsewhere when we haven't shown that we can do what we need to do, but that's a quick look.

And if we end up 7, root for BU to get the opposing 2 (which looks possible if they do well and Miami and Wisc don't).

[nyc94]

[quote Jordan 04]there's no "better" or "worse" regional[/quote]

From the fan perspective, I'll take three hours by car over half a day and who knows how many planes to get to North Dakota.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Jordan 04]We'll play where we're sent, and there's no "better" or "worse" regional or set of opponents.[/quote]

There is when I live 20 minutes from Worcester and 2.5-3 hours from Albany... but many many moons from Fargo and Green Bay


[quote Jordan 04]Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?

...

All that being said, I'm glad we have so many folks around here willing to put the time in to figure out countless combinations and permutations. It's fun reading[/quote]

I think you just answered your own question.

[Jordan 04]

[quote calgARI '07]Because look what happened last year.[/quote]

Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."

Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.

And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.

Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."

[Jordan 04]

[quote nyc94][quote Jordan 04]there's no "better" or "worse" regional[/quote]

From the fan perspective, I'll take three hours by car over half a day and who knows how many planes to get to North Dakota.[/quote]

Fair enough, and I'd probably feel the same way about a drive up to Albany from the city, especially considering the Grand Forks possibility this year, which isn't quite as accessible as Minneapolis. But OTOH, having to fly out to Minnesota last year on 48-72 hours notice, and then experiencing that regional, was a helluva lot of fun.

[calgARI '07]

[quote Jordan 04][quote calgARI '07]Because look what happened last year.[/quote]

Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."

Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.

And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.

Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."[/quote]

The fact that the team went unbeaten in their last 20 games, won the regular season title, post season title yet had to go out to Minnesota and play a road game on Olympic Ice.  That was complete bull shit and had Cornell lost one of those games, it could have been a different story.  They shouldn't go strictly by the PWR but because they do, we have to look at very closely.  I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.  
I'm not going to sugar coat anything about that game against Minnesota.  Yeah, they took them to brink, but that after Cornell had finally adjusted to playing on bigger ice in a full road game.  Had they played them on a regular sheet of ice at a neutral site, I believe Cornell would have won that game.  That is how important the PWR is and that is why I and I think a lot of other people take it so seriously.

[Lauren '06]

[quote calgARI '07][quote Jordan 04][quote calgARI '07]Because look what happened last year.[/quote]

Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."

Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.

And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.

Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."[/quote]

The fact that the team went unbeaten in their last 20 games, won the regular season title, post season title yet had to go out to Minnesota and play a road game on Olympic Ice.  That was complete bull shit and had Cornell lost one of those games, it could have been a different story.  They shouldn't go strictly by the PWR but because they do, we have to look at very closely.  I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.  
I'm not going to sugar coat anything about that game against Minnesota.  Yeah, they took them to brink, but that after Cornell had finally adjusted to playing on bigger ice in a full road game.  Had they played them on a regular sheet of ice at a neutral site, I believe Cornell would have won that game.  That is how important the PWR is and that is why I and I think a lot of other people take it so seriously.[/quote]
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the point Jordan's trying to make is why bother analyzing every possible scenario when whatever happens is going to happen and the committee's going to send Cornell wherever their criteria tells them to?  It's not a question of how "fair" is it to get sent someplace as much as it is a question of "does it matter how many statistical analyses you compute when the end result will be the same."  I think "it's a fun read" is probably the only real answer. :-D

[RichH]

[quote Jordan 04]

Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this?  Who cares?[/quote]

Well, I can give you a list of people who care.  I don't care as much as some, so I'll take a stab at an answer.

1) Cheering interest.  I'm fine with saying "just let the chips fall where they may" on game nights and looking at the numbers after the fact.  But knowing through the work of people here that Northern Michigan beating Bowling Green in the CCHA consolation game most likely gives us a matchup with CHA champion Alabama-Huntsville instead of a date with Denver ahead of time is pretty nifty and gives me reason to actually get into games around the nation.  Ken '70 has done a pretty good job at keeping tabs on CU rooting interest so far.

2) Historical continuity and committee accountability.  JTW knows what the committee did differently in '03 vs. '02, and can try to apply that knowledge to what should happen this year, and can actually have numerical proof that someone got screwed in the selection.   Probably more than any other sport that I can think of.  And if this knowledge can be further utilized to have an effect on the system itself, well, that's pretty remarkable that fans can have that great an impact.  The KRACH movement gained momentum due to work like this.

3) It's fun and interesting to read.

4) Interest diversity.  I may not be very interested in what Justin Milo does on the ice until he's physically on the hill.  But that doesn't mean that others don't enjoy following the future Big Red skaters.  PWR possibilities may seem like a waste of time to you, but isn't this whole damn forum...nay...this whole CU hockey obsession, in the grand scheme of things, a huge waste of time?  :-D  Dryden, I sure hope not.

[nyc94]

[quote Section A Banshee]
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the point Jordan's trying to make is why bother analyzing every possible scenario when whatever happens is going to happen and the committee's going to send Cornell wherever their criteria tells them to?  It's not a question of how "fair" is it to get sent someplace as much as it is a question of "does it matter how many statistical analyses you compute when the end result will be the same."  I think "it's a fun read" is probably the only real answer. :-D[/quote]

It does give you a reason to root for one team over another in the other league tournaments.  Sort of like how the weekly football pool makes me care about Jets v. Texans.

[Chris \'03]

[quote calgARI '07] I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.  [/quote]

For the record, the GB regional is a neutral venue. It may be in Wisconsin but it is not Wisconsin's home ice nor are they host (MTU). In fact there is at least one scenario (NoDak as a 4 with BU, MN, Miami, and WI as 1's) that puts Wisconsin in Albany as a 1 seed.

I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.