2005-2006 PWR

Just found this. [www.uscho.com]

You Might Think They're NCAA-Bound, But The PairWise Disagrees
No. 15 (tie) Cornell: Simply put, the Big Red haven't played anybody yet. Cornell has a 2-1-1 record against TUCs, and while the winning percentage there (.6250) is good, the problem is that there are only four games in there. That's right — Cornell has only played four of its 17 games this season against teams with a .500 RPI or better (two against Michigan State, one against Harvard, and one against Rensselaer). A quick look at the Big Red's schedule shows why: Cornell's ECACHL schedule is ridiculously back-loaded. The Big Red's remaining opponents include Clarkson (twice), St. Lawrence (twice), Colgate (twice), Harvard and Rensselaer, all currently TUCs. A reasonable record in those games would enhance the Big Red's chances for an at-large bid if the team doesn't win the ECACHL tournament.

cth95
A reasonable record in those games would enhance the Big Red's chances for an at-large bid if the team doesn't win the ECACHL tournament.

And an "unreasonable" record in those games would mean we deserve to stay home.

Nothing new or surprising in that quote. We haven't played the tough part of our conference schedule yet and as Al says if we don't do well in that part we won't deserve to play for the national championship.

Gates ranking surprised me a bit - I guess I hadn't payed close attention to who they've played and beaten. Also MSU at #5 is a shock, since for a while there it looked like they were playing well below expectations. In both cases the PWR rank isn't too far away from the KRACH rank, so it makes sense.

Lot's of hockey left to be played. A timely ten game win streak would do wonders for our tournament chances. (Especially a ten game streak starting in March...)

How does the number of games vs TUC affect our PWR, except through the strength of schedule part of the RPI? This isn't lacrosse where SoS is the main criterion. I guess they're trying to say our RPI is worse than just looking at our record would lead you to believe, but number of games vs TUC is not a criterion.

jtwcornell91
How does the number of games vs TUC affect our PWR, except through the strength of schedule part of the RPI? This isn't lacrosse where SoS is the main criterion. I guess they're trying to say our RPI is worse than just looking at our record would lead you to believe, but number of games vs TUC is not a criterion.

Theres also the winning percentage against TUCs point in the PWR. Looking at the comparisons with all the people above us, we lose TUC and RPI to all of them.

But John's point is that it doesn't matter whether we are 2-1-1 against TUCs or 8-4-4. The TUC criteria would be the same either way. Our RPI would likely be a lot higher though.

KeithK
But John's point is that it doesn't matter whether we are 2-1-1 against TUCs or 8-4-4. The TUC criteria would be the same either way. Our RPI would likely be a lot higher though.

Yeah, I understood that.

Well I think 2 wins against SLU will really help, they are currently number 3 in the PWR ranking. Winning against SLU alone will significantly boost our RPI. Of the ECAC teams with a better RPI then us, it is only Harvard and SLU. For some reason, I think the 2 weekends against the North Country and the Harvard game will determine if we make it in or not. If we sweep those 5 games, I think we could be maybe a number 2 seed. The losses to Princeton and Union are going to kill us if we are a bubble team for making the tourney this year. Like everyone said there is still a lot of hockey to be played, hopefully we can win the same percentage of the games as we did in the first half.

We currently lose 10 PWR comparisons by having the lower RPI, if this changes for the better which it should based on who left we have left, we can gain back quite a few comparisons.

For the record, the PWR rankings cited in the article do not all match USCHO's PWR page. For example, on the ranking page SLU is listed as #6 (tie), not #3. I suspect the article was written a few days ago and is a little out of date.

I thikn it's also relevant to point out that if we had played more games against TUCs and had the same record (overall and TUC pct.), our PWR standing might be better due to H2H effects. The hypothetical extra TUC wins could swing individual comparisons that we currently tie or lose. Not that I think the author is making this point - he's just making the easy SoS argument.

Well the tie breaker on even comparisons is RPI and currently we are currently 21 in this ranking. With a better RPI even though I have not looked at it closely I think we would take another 5-6 comparisons. This weekend is just as big of a weekend as the MSU weekend. If we play as well as we seem them play in stretches, our spot in the PWR ranking will be significantly higher.

I think the article already factored in the 3-2-1 bonus

That would make SLU the third ranked PWR team

I've noticed that the PWR published on www.siouxsports.com matches exactly with the USCHO one, but the www.rpihockey.net one seems to have some differences.

TCHL8842
Well I think 2 wins against SLU will really help, they are currently number 3 in the PWR ranking. Winning against SLU alone will significantly boost our RPI.

Winning against SLU vs someone else doesn't matter, that's not how the mechanics of RPI work. If you're 20 - 10 at the end of the year it doesn't matter how those wins and losses are distributed. Against the same set of opponents you can flip the 10 losses to 10 entirely different teams and still have the same RPI.

[Q]
Winning against SLU vs someone else doesn't matter, that's not how the mechanics of RPI work. If you're 20 - 10 at the end of the year it doesn't matter how those wins and losses are distributed. Against the same set of opponents you can flip the 10 losses to 10 entirely different teams and still have the same RPI.
[/Q]

If the RPI is calculated by averaging the winning percentage of your opponents, as stated in the USCHO explanation, then it does matter slightly.

If every team played the same number of games, then who you lose to wouldn't matter. Since the Ivies play fewer games, the optimal strategy would be to have the 10 losses be against the Ivy teams, since beating them would have more of an effect on an Ivy team's winning percentage.

I seem to recall that your games are not included in an opponents record when computing OppWin% and OppOppWin%, in order to avoid double counting. If I am remembering correctly then it really does not matter who you beat.

KeithK
I seem to recall that your games are not included in an opponents record when computing OppWin% and OppOppWin%, in order to avoid double counting. If I am remembering correctly then it really does not matter who you beat.

You are correct, those games are subtracted.

Dont look now, but MSU is suddenly #9 in the RPI and #4 in the PWR.

French Rage
Dont look now, but MSU is suddenly #9 in the RPI and #4 in the PWR.

Root for MSU against Ferris and LSSU (last couple weekends). If they win those games (or 1-01 against LSSU), and we play decent down the stretch, that should give us two more comparisons.

DeltaOne81: Root for MSU against Ferris and LSSU (last couple weekends). If they win those games (or 1-01 against LSSU), and we play decent down the stretch, that should give us two more comparisons.

If we play well down the stretch we'll probably pick up those comparisons anyway. With the expected RPI bonus (.0033,.0022,.0011) we're winning the Ferris comparison right now.

Cornell is likely, with decent play, to pick up 4 or 5 comparisons. Just tonight (Sat) for example, as long as there's a winner in the VT-BC game we'll probably pick up one of those. A Colgate victory over St Law will bring us just a hair short of flipping the SLU comparison, and if we beat Hahvahd at home that will probably flip both Hahvahd and BU. The only ones that look untouchable are WI, Miami, MN and CC.

MSU has a strong schedule remaining, so it will be hard to catch them on RPI, but it's possible. I'd go the other way than you: root against MSU for the rest of the season. And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.

Ken '70
And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.

More to the point, root for Niagara to win the CHA tournament, thus granting them automatic TUC status regardless of RPI.

Will

Ken '70
And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.

More to the point, root for Niagara to win the CHA tournament, thus granting them automatic TUC status regardless of RPI.

TUC, though, isn't that important for us this year. Of the 13 comparisons we're losing, every one could be flipped just by winning RPI. Only 2 comparisons, Harvard and BC, can be flipped just by winning TUC.

However, only 8 of those potential RPI flips are within reason (currently below .5600 to our .5358, with bonus). The ones where RPI flips are probably unreasonable are WI, Miami, CC, MN and SLU. But the overall SLU comparison can be flipped by any 2 of 3 of the remaining criteria, all of which are within reach.

Only two comparisons can be flipped by COP alone, that's MN and BU. For the former it would require MN to split, or worse, their season finale weekend with UMD while we beat Union. For the latter we need to beat Harvard while BU doesn't beat Harvard in the Beanpot.

Only one comparison can be flipped by H2H alone: Harvard.

It's really seems to be mostly about RPI from here on out.

Let's use this thread to discuss PWR. A new one started yesterday, but that one seems to have a drunk as its main contributor.

Cornell had almost the perfect day yesterday re: PWR. They had picked up 4 comparisons as a result of the afternoon games (they were winning both LSSU and Ferris before the evening games started). But the night games also helped a lot.

Colgate def. SLU - puts the SLU comp. in reach, despite SLU's insurmountable RPI advantage

Alaska Fairbanks def. OSU - flipped the RPI and the comparison to Cornell

Neb. Omaha def. MSU - tightens up the RPI difference a lot. Downside is MSU's loss hurts Cornell's Op %, but the prospect of winning the MSU comparison is far more important. That one may be the key to a 6th seed and eastern ice.

Niagara won - not a big deal, but helps Cornell's Op % and may eventually get Niagara to TUC

Yale def. RPI - dropping RPI from TUC and erasing a TUC tie from Cornell's record

BC def. Vermont - we just needed a winner in this one, didn't matter who. The TUC critria vs. UVM got stronger and the RPI flipped, giving Cornell the comparison

ME def. PVD - not huge, but it keeps a hot PVD at bay

HC def. Darmoth - bringing the Big Green to the brink of TUC oblivion and erasing one of Cornell's two TUC losses. TUC isn't a factor in Cornell winning any new comparisons, but it is a big factor in holding on to some of the ones we already have.

Of course, Cornell has to keep winning. Last year after the last weekend series in January Cornell was 15-4-2 and had a .5795 RPI (incl. bonus). From then through the Clarkson playoff series on March 12 Cornell went 8-0-1 but their RPI only went up to .5835, a .004 gain. So flipping RPI comparisons are not just about what you do, you need the other teams to come back to you.

One of the best days for the out-of-town scores you'll see, as a Cornell fan. Even MI lost, making that comparison somewhat stronger.

i had the same thought last night about things going the way of the big red in the out of town score board. pretty sweet.

And the upshot of all that is that with a .003/.002/.001, Cornell wins the 7th place tie with Michigan:

28 Wisco
27 Minny
26 Miami
24 BC
22 CC
22 MSU
20 Cornell
20 Michigan

Cornell's record is listed as 12-4-2 on the USCHO PWR site: [www.uscho.com]. I assume that's because the RIT game is dropped?

Oh come on - someone tell me that the RIT game counts. just cuz they play a couple D3 games doesnt make them not a D1 school. ??
eh

They're a D1 school. They're just in a probationary period for the first 2 (?) years, in which they are not eligible for the NCAA tournament, and therefore games against them do not count in whether other teams are eligible.

Jayson Moy did a chat for USCHO/CSTV today - see [www.cstv.com]

Of note at the bottom:

Mike Lentz (Lakeville, MN): Just because I'm curious who you think will be in there at the end, who's your picks to be in the Final Four?

Jayson Moy: Love the way Minnesota is playing right now. I love the way Wisconsin has looked all year. I'll take the two of them to start. And then I'll throw in Cornell, who seem to be just starting to gear up, and the fourth team, well, I'll go with Miami because I love their defense, Andy Greene and two goalies you can't go wrong with.

Really interesting weekend coming up in terms of PWR (ranks presume a 3/2/1 bonus).

#1 WI v. #3 MN (2 games)
#2 MI v. #5 FSU (2)
#4 BC v. #17 BU (1)
#7 UM v. #8 MSU (2)
#11 ND v. #24 SCSU (2)
#12 SLU v. #28 CCT (2)
#13 UNO v. #25 UAF (2)
#15 UNH v. #18 PC (1)

Everything could get mixed up this weekend. Three pairs or top ten teams playing series is really amazing. Time for the CCHA teams to start beating each other up.

as implied by ferris at #5, ferris beating michigan improved cornell 2nite.
Bonus Weight
The committee adds a bonus to a team's RPI for "good wins." The amount of the bonus is kept secret, but you can add your best guess here and see how it would affect the PWR.

Road Neutral Home
(Switch To: Individual Comparisons Table)
.0003/2/1
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 1 18-4-2 .7917 1 .6086
2 Miami 27 3 17-4-4 .7600 2 .5820
3 Minnesota 26 6 16-6-4 .6923 3 .5792
4 Boston College 24 2 16-4-2 .7727 4 .5652
5t Michigan 21 14t 14-9-1 .6042 7 .5521
5t Ferris State 21 22t 12-8-6 .5769 9 .5479
5t Cornell 21 4 12-4-2 .7222 11 .5389
8 Colorado College 20 10t 17-10-1 .6250 8 .5516
9 Michigan State 19 24 14-10-5 .5690 12 .5379
10 North Dakota 18 10t 17-10-1 .6250 6 .5524
11t St. Lawrence 17 13 13-8-1 .6136 5 .5546
11t Nebraska-Omaha 17 27t 13-11-2 .5385 13 .5365
13 Harvard 16 21 10-7-2 .5789 18 .5333
14 Northern Michigan 15 26 14-11-1 .5577 14 .5351
15 New Hampshire 14 17 13-8-4 .6000 22 .5256
16t Boston University 13 18 12-8-2 .5909 15 .5351
16t Ohio State 13 27t 12-10-4 .5385 17 .5341
18 Providence 11 19t 13-9-1 .5870 10 .5411
19t Vermont 10 7 15-7-2 .6667 16 .5348
19t Denver 10 22t 14-10-2 .5769 19 .5322
21 Lake Superior 9 14t 12-7-5 .6042 20 .5322
22t Maine 8 10t 15-9-0 .6250 21 .5271
22t Bowling Green 8 36 12-14-1 .4630 27 .5103
24 St. Cloud State 7 25 12-9-3 .5625 23 .5222
25 Alaska-Fairbanks 6 32t 10-11-3 .4792 24 .5208
26 Colgate 4 9 13-6-5 .6458 25 .5177
27 Holy Cross 2 5 15-6-1 .7045 26 .5154
28 Clarkson 1 30 11-10-2 .5217 28 .5050
29 Dartmouth 0 37 8-10-1 .4474 29 .5050

jy3
as implied by ferris at #5, ferris beating michigan improved cornell 2nite (sic).

Add the bonus. Cornell went down from 7 to 9 (now losing a 3 way tie for 7).

Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.

TCHL8842
Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.

it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.

A-19
it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.

Any bracket that has us in Albany is fine by me.

A-19

TCHL8842
Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.

it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.

If you threw in UNH as the 4 it'd be some party, but how do you reach that outcome? If MN is the one seed there, they'd have to be the one behind UW and another WCHA team. Right now MN would go to the ND regional, Miami would be in Albany, and BC would be in Worcester.

Minnesota would have to fall to a 2 seed before they end up out here if BC and Miami maintain position. Of course at this point it's just as likely that Cornell could be in a regional with pretty much any of the top 25 teams as being in the "revenge" region.

Chris '03

jy3
as implied by ferris at #5, ferris beating michigan improved cornell 2nite (sic).

Add the bonus. Cornell went down from 7 to 9 (now losing a 3 way tie for 7).

i did, i think i did .0003/2/1 instead of .003/2/1

Chris '03

A-19

TCHL8842
Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.

it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.

If you threw in UNH as the 4 it'd be some party, but how do you reach that outcome? If MN is the one seed there, they'd have to be the one behind UW and another WCHA team. Right now MN would go to the ND regional, Miami would be in Albany, and BC would be in Worcester.

Minnesota would have to fall to a 2 seed before they end up out here if BC and Miami maintain position. Of course at this point it's just as likely that Cornell could be in a regional with pretty much any of the top 25 teams as being in the "revenge" region.

In my opinion, this is not the year to get "revenge" against MN, I would rather wait until they don't have Kessel, Potulny or Irmen. They are a much better team than last year, without question. Well, that, and I don't think that our team is good enough to beat them. We have been giving up far too many odd man rushes off of overcommiting into the offensive zone and turning the puck over, at least like 2-3 per game, and the Gophers would bury those pucks. The Gophers and CC are teams that I do not want to see in our bracket come March (Also, look out for St. Cloud who is sneaky-good and on an influential run right now).

Something interesting...

In USCHO's "bracketology", only one hockey east team gets in. Sure, it's way too early to tell much, and it isn't exactly a great source, but it's nice to see hockey east's poor interconference record actually reflected for once.

A tournament with 4 ECAC teams and 1 HE team would be so hot.

Also one where we and Colgate are both in Albany.

granted harvard would be seeded ahead of us for that particular bracket to work... but i think i can live with them going out west instead of us

Colgate is shown only because the bracket has to include the ECAC tournament winner. USCHO puts the current league point leader into that role by default.

Colgate is decidedly not "in" in any real world sense. They would have to win the ECAC tournamentt to get in, but you could put Brown or Princeton there just as well and get 4 ECAC teams in the NCAAs.

HE is likely to get 2 teams. With expected bonuses UNH is the last the at large qualifying today.

i think unh is the 15 seed if u use .003/2/1 today. tOSU is 14 so they are last out by colgate being in. of interesting note will be how far colgate will climb if they win out except against cornell (i hope) and then if they lose in the albany finals (to cornell i would hope! ). i would be curious to see...no woofing intended woofing gods!
LGR!

You're right about UNH, I took a quick look and saw 14 next to them but didn't notice it was a tie that they would lose.

I use .33/.22/.11. Some post on USCHO said that someone examined the entrails of last year's RPI movements and discovered this was the more exact weighting. Who knows if it was true then and if the committee would not adjust the weighting year to year anyway?

Colgate would have to raise their RPI by about .02 to get in the hunt for an at large. They're also losing TUC quite badly to many teams they'd have to overtake. That's a lot of wood to chop. Near flawless in remainder of regular season, then meeting teams with high win %s in playoffs and losing to a non-TUC in final. Or something close to that.

Ken '70
You're right about UNH, I took a quick look and saw 14 next to them but didn't notice it was a tie that they would lose.

I use .33/.22/.11. Some post on USCHO said that someone examined the entrails of last year's RPI movements and discovered this was the more exact weighting. Who knows if it was true then and if the committee would not adjust the weighting year to year anyway?

Colgate would have to raise their RPI by about .02 to get in the hunt for an at large. They're also losing TUC quite badly to many teams they'd have to overtake. That's a lot of wood to chop. Near flawless in remainder of regular season, then meeting teams with high win %s in playoffs and losing to a non-TUC in final. Or something close to that.

i tend to use 0.0033/22/11 myself as well. 'gate could do it, but it will be a tough task. it would be sweet to have 4 ecac teams in it, though i fear that will be unlikely. i just want cornell to make it above all else of course
a win against clarkson will help slu(T) this weekend as that will improve their tuc status. we shall see.

the reason they claim there are 4 ecac teams in is because they give the autobid to whoever is currently winning the division, which happens to be 'gate for ecac

Games of interest:

Miami def. Ferris: time to start realing Ferris back
MI - MSU TIE: only result that helps Cornell
Clarkson def. SLU: keep Clarkson TUC
Union def. Darmoth: drop Big Green from TUC
BU def. BC: keep TUC advantage and comparison
UMD def. Mn St: jeez, can these guys ever win another game?

Also:

Hahvahd def. RPI: keep RPI from TUC
AF def. NO: keeps NO at bay on TUC and RPI
St CL def. UND: we can dream can't we? The RPI dif. is only(?) .015

I'd expect Cornell to take some hits on these tonight and maybe drop a couple comparisons, MI and BC being the most likely. A bad night and we're back on the bubble.

Ken '70
Games of interest:

Miami def. Ferris: time to start realing Ferris back
MI - MSU TIE: only result that helps Cornell
Clarkson def. SLU: keep Clarkson TUC
Union def. Darmoth: drop Big Green from TUC
BU def. BC: keep TUC advantage and comparison
UMD def. Mn St: jeez, can these guys ever win another game?

Also:

Hahvahd def. RPI: keep RPI from TUC
AF def. NO: keeps NO at bay on TUC and RPI
St CL def. UND: we can dream can't we? The RPI dif. is only(?) .015

I'd expect Cornell to take some hits on these tonight and maybe drop a couple comparisons, MI and BC being the most likely. A bad night and we're back on the bubble.

Pretty good night so far. Union and UMD didn't come through, but six out of eight (so far) ain't bad. Biggest problem is the hit on RPI from playing Brown, but can't do much about that.

.003/.002/.001 has us last in a three-way tie for 9th (a.k.a., 11th) with OSU and Harvard. Interesting pair comparisons:

Even though BC is #3, we're ahead in the comparison 2-1.
Even though Michigan is #7, we're ahead there too, 2-1.
OTOH, we trail #14 NoDak, 2-1 (though NoDak is probably irredeemable in record v. TUC).
The Harvard comparison is a virtual deal heat: 2-2, with Harvard ahead in RPI by only .013. Harvard still has the Beanpot to either put their TUC out of reach or, if they get destroyed, knock them down and give Cornell the comparison (assuming Cornell can win F N' F and keep the H2H comparison).
OSU has only a .017 lead in RPI.
BU and Cornell are tied 1-1 with BU's point coming on COp. So, if Harvard does win a 'Pot game with BU, we get the consolation of perhaps overtaking BU.

Last night was another good one for out of town results, we even got the beneficial tie between MI and MSU, but we still dropped three comparisons overall and our RPI dropped .0015. Such is the nature of the RPI and playing a 3-12-5 team as well as having some games like BC-BU where any winner will cause a comparison loss. But there's more good news than bad:

- RPI: the combined record of our remaining regular season Ops is .576, there are no more Browns
- Of the 11 comparisons we're losing, all can be flipped by just RPI, and 7 of those are within reach. Of those 7, the greatest distance is just .0117, and that's BU which can be flipped by COP alone - go Harvard!
- The RPI delta to 3 of the 7 is trivial: NO, OSU and HA. All could be flipped tonight
- The RPI delta to 2 is bordering on trivial: Ferris and MSU and could be closed within two games
- Even NoDak is now within reach. Their RPI dropped .0049 just last night with their loss to SCSU. The delta is just .0106

Though dropping 3 comparisons may seem like evidence to the contrary, last night was a strategic success.

Games of interest tonight:

- MI def. MSU: Due to last nights tie it's now OK for MI to go ahead and beat MSU
- Miami def. Ferris: Close the RPI gap
- ND def. OSU: RPI, flip the comparison
- AF def. NO: RPI, flip the comparison
- Clarkson def. SLU: SLU comp flipped to us last night. Another Clarkson win helps keep it that way.
- RPI def. Darmoth: Drop Darmoth from TUC, or a step in that direction
- UMASS def. BU: If HA can't take care of BU in B'pot, this helps bring BU's RPI closer
- SCSU def. NoDak: RPI delta
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI and moves NI closer to TUC
- HA def. Union: Pretty much the nail in the coffin for Union getting back to TUC

Ken '79
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI

Please help me out. We had the same record in the same number of games against each team. Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum? In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?

nevermind.

Trotsky

Ken '79
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI

Please help me out. We had the same record in the same number of games against each team. Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum? In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?

You are correct.

In fact QU winning would actually help us more, because it would not only push up our Opp's winning percentage, but it would do the same for all ECAC teams, which would then push up our opponent's opponent's winning percentage, giving us a few more RPI points.

But... there's another consideration from a PWR perspective though, which is record against TUC. If Niagra pulls itself up to a TUC, that will give us two more wins in that column. Which could pull us up much more sigifnicant than a few ten-thousandths of a point in RPI.

But (final 'but')... it won't. Of all the comparisons we lose, we win the TUC column anyway in all but 3 of them - Wisconsin, Miami, and Harvard. Harvard is the only one that we can flip by winning the TUC anyway, but we can win that a lot easier by beating them . So, if we keep playing well, all the TUC "luck" in the world seems mostly irrelevant (Dartmouth dropping out, Niagra making it in, etc). Not that it can hurt.

Trotsky

Ken '79
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI

Please help me out. We had the same record in the same number of games against each team. Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum? In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?

It's due to relativeness: Our RPI is only important relative to other teams' RPI, obviously. When QU loses all teams that played QU lose in the SOS catagory and the same would be true, of course, for Niagara. While we get a zero-sum effect from a QU-NI game, teams that have not played QU and NI equally, as we have, don't. MI and HA are examples, and we are in close competition with both. Both played QU twice, neither played Niagara. Therefore our RPI relative to both is advantaged by a theoretical zero-sum outcome for us (NI wins and QU loses), as you point out, which is not a zero-sum outcome for them (QU loses, hurting their SOS rating, with no compensating NI games like we have).

I should have said "Helps our relative RPI" to have made it clearer.

DeltaOne81: But (final 'but')... it won't. Of all the comparisons we lose, we win the TUC column anyway in all but 3 of them - Wisconsin, Miami, and Harvard. Harvard is the only one that we can flip by winning the TUC anyway, but we can win that a lot easier by beating them . So, if we keep playing well, all the TUC "luck" in the world seems mostly irrelevant (Dartmouth dropping out, Niagra making it in, etc). Not that it can hurt.

Getting an at-large, or having a high seed or eastern ice, is as much a consideration of holding onto the comparisons you are currently winning as it is winning additional ones.

Of the 17 comparisons we are currently winning, 9 can be lost by just by a swing in TUC. The BC comparison, in particular, is hanging in the balance based on TUC. The others that we could lose just on a TUC swing are MI, PVD, SLU, DU, SCSU, Cogate, UVM and HC.

TUC is very important, and Niagara getting there is insurance against road, or home, losses in any of our remaining 6 TUC games.

In the strangely sensitive world of PWR, last night's results (Princeton loss to Robert Morris and Mich. win over WMU) dropped us from 10th to 13th with .003/.002/.001 bonuses and from 10th to 17th with .0004/.0025/.0001. As a KRACH advocate, I note that last night's results dropped us from 11th to 12th.

One might may the argument that any team that loses to a team that loses to Robert Morris should automatically be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.

Trotsky
One might may the argument that any team that loses to a team that loses to Robert Morris should automatically be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.

Hmmmm...

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.

Section A Banshee

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.

With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon.

Jeff Hopkins '82

Section A Banshee

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.

With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon.

Or Paul Erdõs: [en.wikipedia.org]

Jeff Hopkins '82

Section A Banshee

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.

With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon.

Of course, the fact that you can do that from any team to any other team is what makes everyone's KRACH finite.

Jeff Hopkins '82

Section A Banshee

I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.

With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon.

OK, if you insist:

Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State, which defeated Cornell, which was watched at Yale by me, who knows Phil, owner of the Towne Crier Cafe in Pawling, NY, where a certain duo occasionally sing...and that duo would be Michael and Kevin Bacon.

Killer
OK, if you insist:

Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State, which defeated Cornell, which was watched at Yale by me, who knows Phil, owner of the Towne Crier Cafe in Pawling, NY, where a certain duo occasionally sing...and that duo would be Michael and Kevin Bacon.

You need to get out more.

[q]You need to get out more.[/q]Says the person with 1800 posts on this forum...

someone with 1600+ is no one to talk...

Heh. I almost added that to my post.

KeithK
[q]You need to get out more.[/q]Says the person with 1800 posts on this forum...

Hey, I never denied that I should get out more too.

The traveling Faithful getting some recognition as Moy moves the 4-seed to the Albany regional to boost attendance.

[www.uscho.com]

BCrespi
The traveling Faithful getting some recognition as Moy moves the 4-seed to the Albany regional to boost attendance.

[www.uscho.com]

yeah except when they add bonuses, WE'RE NOT EVEN IN THE TOURNEY

Jason L

BCrespi
The traveling Faithful getting some recognition as Moy moves the 4-seed to the Albany regional to boost attendance.

[www.uscho.com]

yeah except when they add bonuses, WE'RE NOT EVEN IN THE TOURNEY

Well, we're in with the .003/.002/.001 bonus. If the bonus gets bumped up to .004/.0025/.001, then we're out.

Will

KeithK
[q]You need to get out more.[/q]Says the person with 1800 posts on this forum...

Hey, I never denied that I should get out more too.

Ha, amateurs

Referring to the Albany and Worcester regionals as "East" and "Northeast" is sort of a misnomer, since Worcester is almost due east from Albany. (Albany is actually just a smidge further north, so if one of them should be "Northeast", Albany is it.) Is there some NCAA rule that regionals have to be referred to by compass directions? Couldn't they just call them the "Albany" and "Worcester" regionals?

Pete Godenschwager
If the bonus gets bumped up to .004/.0025/.001, then we're out.

"Just win the ECACs, baby."

Cornell is listed as "Looking good, but pay attention to details" in the latest article about the PWR.

The gist of the article is that Cornell is on an unstable base right now (nothing we didn't know). We are in the meat of the schedule now, with 6 straight TUC games, and the article is saying that with so few TUCs so far any one loss hurts our impressive percentage much more. At least these games will also act to raise the RPI some as well.

Cornell is really in an excellent position right now. By Monday night at 11PM it's not at all out of the question Cornell could have flipped as many as 8 comparisons and lost maybe only 1 it's now winning.

Cornell needs 3 points this weekend to make serious headway. They now have to start winning the TUC games consistently. If they can, they're in a great position to make up a ton of ground without needing the out-of-towns to break perfectly every night.

At least 3 points against 15-6 Colgate and here's what can happen:

- UNO or LSSU will flip, maybe both. They're playing each other and they're only the slightest bit ahead of Cornell in RPI right now.
- An OSU split, or worse, at MI flips the OSU comparison
- Ferris could barely hang on if they sweep WMU. If not, it will flip.
- SCSU is playing 6-19 AA. Even if they sweep a 3 pt Cornell weekend will flip this one
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
- MSU is playing 9-14 ND, even a seep might not do it for them
- It's a bit far fetched, but a CC sweep of visiting NoDak could flip that one as well. More reasonably, a split in that series would make the NoDak advantage infinitesimal.

It's in Cornell's control to get to 5 or 6 in the PWR and stay home for the regionals. A #1 seed is even theoretically possible at this point. Just win.

Ken '70
Just win.

You said it!

Ken '70
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us

It's Beanpawt time, huh?

And on a bright side, even if BU wins, it firms the comparison with over Harvard, which is *very* close right now.

Ken '70
It's in Cornell's control to get to 5 or 6 in the PWR and stay home for the regionals.

For a lot of reasons, even a 5 or 6 doesn't guarantee an eastern regional. Note that the committee's guidelines say the top four, in order, get sent to the closest regional. Wisconsin or Minneapolis at #1 are closest to Green Bay. If Miami were #2, Albany is the next closest for them and even Worcester is closer than Grand Forks. Of course, the committee will do whatever it wants anyway.

Speaking of ridiculously uncertain circumstances, with a .003/.002/.001 Cornell is currently (Thursday afternoon) in a 5-way tie for 10th (i.e., the difference between on the cusp of a 3-seed and being eliminated would resolve in tie-break procedures): [www.uscho.com]

Trotsky
Speaking of ridiculously uncertain circumstances, with a .003/.002/.001 Cornell is currently (Thursday afternoon) in a 5-way tie for 10th (i.e., the difference between on the cusp of a 3-seed and being eliminated would resolve in tie-break procedures): [www.uscho.com]

Stupid Princeton.*

* Yes, I am more upset with losing the game, but I still choose to blame Princeton.)

BTW, has anybody ever definitely determined that substituting, say, 2 losses to Miami for 2 wins against Niagara cannot, be definition, improve Cornell in the PWR?

Trotsky
BTW, has anybody ever definitely determined that substituting, say, 2 losses to Miami for 2 wins against Niagara cannot, be definition, improve Cornell in the PWR?

Well, the common opponents, TUC and H2H categories are based purely on wins. So adding losses instead of wins can only hurt you there. The switch could only help in the RPI category and would if the SoS differential exceeded the Win% differential.

Of course there's a lot of hockey to be played. Miami, WI and MN all have weak schedules to finish the RS. WI is pretty far ahead, maybe Miami can get MN. Just have the feeling Miami is due to cool off a bit, maybe 4-2-1 to finish.

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved.

And, besides, this is the Beanpot. Horses for courses.

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

ugarte

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.

Killer

ugarte

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.

Or genius

redhair34

Killer

ugarte

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.

Or genius

This is what happens when people quote messages...

Trotsky

redhair34

Killer

ugarte

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.

Or genius

This is what happens when people quote messages...

But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.

Al DeFlorio
But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.

You mean something like this?
[elf.elynah.com]

Trotsky
This is what happens when people quote messages...

Yeah I admit that is a bit of an eye sore.

Al DeFlorio

Trotsky

redhair34

Killer

ugarte

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.

Or genius

This is what happens when people quote messages...

But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.

I disagree.

[q]But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/q]May I suggest a manual quote or at least some editing for these cases?

Trotsky
I disagree.

Which makes you both wrong and frequently inscrutable.

Trotsky

Al DeFlorio

Trotsky

redhair34

Killer

ugarte

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.

Or genius

This is what happens when people quote messages...

But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.

I disagree.

ooh lets make a huge one of these

pending cc and und...und losing to CC will help cornell possibly flip the und comparison if not make it easier...
with 33/22/11 bonus

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 2 19-6-2 .7407 1 .6057
2 Minnesota 27 6 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5957
3 Miami 26 1 19-5-4 .7500 3 .5770
4 Colorado College 25 11 17-10-1 .6250 4 .5596
5 Boston University 24 10 15-8-2 .6400 5 .5506
6t Boston College 22 5 17-6-2 .7200 6 .5505
6t Nebraska-Omaha 22 25 15-11-3 .5690 7 .5473
8t Michigan State 20 23 15-10-7 .5781 9 .5448
8t Cornell 20 4 14-4-3 .7381 12 .5419
10 Michigan 19 18 15-10-3 .5893 8 .5454
11t Ohio State 16 27t 14-11-4 .5517 14 .5397
11t Harvard 16 17 12-8-2 .5909 18 .5318
13t Providence 15 20t 14-10-1 .5800 11 .5419
13t St. Cloud State 15 12t 15-9-3 .6111 17 .5325
15 Ferris State 14 27t 13-10-6 .5517 13 .5405
16 North Dakota 13 19 17-12-1 .5833 10 .5432
17t Lake Superior 11 12t 14-8-5 .6111 16 .5335
17t Denver 11 14 16-10-2 .6071 20 .5309
19 Maine 10 7t 18-9-0 .6667 19 .5312
20t Alaska-Fairbanks 9 35 11-12-4 .4815 21 .5276
20t St. Lawrence 9 20t 14-10-1 .5800 15 .5384
20t New Hampshire 9 26 13-10-4 .5556 22 .5213
23 Vermont 7 7t 17-8-2 .6667 24 .5211
24 Northern Michigan 6 27t 15-12-2 .5517 27 .5153
25 Colgate 4 9 15-7-5 .6481 23 .5213
26t Bowling Green 3 39 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5025
26t Dartmouth 3 30 11-10-1 .5227 25 .5187
28 Holy Cross 2 3 18-6-1 .7400 26 .5183
29 Clarkson 0 31t 12-12-2 .5000 29 .5012

well und wins and storms up the computer rankings...and cc gets caught at #4 and we are alone at #8. lets get another win tomorrow RED!
33/22/11

Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 2 19-6-2 .7407 1 .6041
2 Minnesota 27 6 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5958
3 Miami 26 1 19-5-4 .7500 3 .5772
4t Colorado College 23 14 17-11-1 .6034 4 .5551
4t Boston College 23 5 17-6-2 .7200 5 .5505
4t Boston University 23 10 15-8-2 .6400 6 .5501
7 Nebraska-Omaha 21 25 15-11-3 .5690 8 .5472
8 Cornell 20 4 14-4-3 .7381 11 .5419
9 Michigan State 19 23 15-10-7 .5781 10 .5447
10 Michigan 18 19 15-10-3 .5893 9 .5450
11 North Dakota 17 16 18-12-1 .5968 7 .5482
12t Ohio State 16 27t 14-11-4 .5517 14 .5389
12t Harvard 16 18 12-8-2 .5909 18 .5325
14 Providence 15 20t 14-10-1 .5800 12 .5419
15t St. Cloud State 14 11t 15-9-3 .6111 17 .5328
15t Ferris State 14 27t 13-10-6 .5517 13 .5405
17 Denver 12 13 16-10-2 .6071 20 .5305
18 Lake Superior 11 11t 14-8-5 .6111 16 .5335
19t Maine 10 7t 18-9-0 .6667 19 .5308
19t New Hampshire 10 26 13-10-4 .5556 22 .5219
21t Alaska-Fairbanks 9 35 11-12-4 .4815 21 .5275
21t St. Lawrence 9 20t 14-10-1 .5800 15 .5383
23 Vermont 7 7t 17-8-2 .6667 24 .5211
24 Northern Michigan 6 27t 15-12-2 .5517 27 .5152
25 Colgate 4 9 15-7-5 .6481 23 .5213
26t Bowling Green 3 39 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5024
26t Dartmouth 3 30 11-10-1 .5227 25 .5187
28 Holy Cross 2 3 18-6-1 .7400 26 .5183
29 Clarkson 0 31t 12-12-2 .5000 29 .5012

Looks like we need to be Clarkson fans for a while, especially if (not a woof) we beat them again next weekend. We're not in danger of losing any comparisons right now if Clarkson drops out, but a better record vs TUC is always a good thing. Niagara is at .4888, but their remaining games include Air Force (5-15-1) twice, Wayne State (5-15-5) twice, and RMU (7-15-2) twice, so I don't see how they could possibly become a TUC, regardless of the outcomes of those games. Union may have a better shot at becoming a TUC - they're at .4882. However, their remaining schedule (with two notable exceptions) is a who's who of the dregs of the ECAC: Brown, Quinnipiac, Princeton, RPI, and Yale. If they find a way to meet Clarkson in the first round, they'd have the complete list of the bottom half in the standings.

So I think we're unlikely to pick up any TUC points by teams moving up - we just need to hope that Clarkson stays above .500.

redhair34

Killer

ugarte

Killer

Ken '70
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...

Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02

First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?

Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.

Or genius

In his NFL.com column this year, Gregg Easterbook (AKA Tuesday Morning Quarterback) took each game and matched the New York Times' predictions against his generic prediction of Home Team 20, Visiting Team 17. I think his generic prediction blew the NYT's predictions out of the water.

Which is to say, if you try to look like a genius and succeed, great, but more often you're going to look like you're just talking out your ass.

Robb
Niagara is at .4888, but their remaining games include Air Force (5-15-1) twice, Wayne State (5-15-5) twice, and RMU (7-15-2) twice, so I don't see how they could possibly become a TUC, regardless of the outcomes of those games.

In other words, root for Niagara in the CHA tournament.

Looking at the comparisons we're losing (after all games on Feb 3):

UND: We're losing the comparison 2-1. We lose RPI .5482 to .5419. We're unlikely to take that back, though they do have 2 games remaining with UMD (8-17-4) and 2 with MTU (6-18-3), so there's a chance. We appear pretty secure on TUC: .7143 for us and .3947 for them, but our .7143 is based on a 5-2 record, so we'd have to drop 6 games to TUCs to be below them at 5-8 (.3846). Of course, their TUC record could improve, too, but if we drop 5 or 6 games to TUCs between now and selection, the UND comparison will be the least of our problems! To win this comparison, we have to get the common opponents back in our favor. Our common opponents are Harvard, UMD, Northeastern, and MSU. They're at 5-2 (.7143) and we're at 3-1-1 (.700). They have 2 remaining vs. UMD and we have 1 vs. Harvard, plus possible playoff matchups with those same teams. If UMD can take one game and we beat Harvard, they'd be at 6-3 (.6667) and we'd be at 4-1-1 (.7500), winning the comparison. OTOH, if UND sweeps UMD, they'll be up to .7778, so we'd need to beat Harvard again in the ECAC tournament to get up to 5-1-1 (.7857). Of course, UND could also meed UMD in the WCHA playoffs, so this one is going to be tight - go UMD!

MSU: lose the comparison 2-2 on RPI tiebreaker, .5447 to .5419. MSU's RPI is definitely going to go up with 2 games remaining vs. Miami (19-5-4) and 2 vs. LSSU (14-8-5), so we probably can't take RPI. For this comparison, our TUC is 4-1 (games vs. MSU don't count) to their 9-8-6, so we'd have to drop at least 4 TUC games to be below them - again, could happen, but it had better not. Interestingly, we have no common opponents, just head-to-head with each other of 1-1, which obviously won't change. I think MSU keeps the comparison, based on their RPI. I guess we can hope that they tank badly enough for their record to drop to cancel out their RPI SOS bump, but that seems unlikely, and would probably be bad for some other comparisons for us (common opponents, etc).

UNO: we lose the comparison 2-1. UNO has RPI at .5472 to .5419. Our upcomming opponents are remarkably similar: several games against teams just over .500 (LSSU, NMU, and UMich for them, Gate, Clarkson, SLU, Harvard, Dartmouth, Union for us), but they have two stinkers (WMUx2) and we only have one, RPI. This still seems like a tossup - we need to have a much better record in our last few games than UNO does. Unfortunately, they look like they're flying right now (beat LSSU, no slouch, 8-0 tonight!). Their TUC is closer at 12-8-2 (.5909) to our .7143. On the surface, that looks secure, but remember that our TUC record is only 5-2. Two losses to TUCs would put us at 5-4 (.5556). Still, we should manage to keep TUC. They have common opponents right now at 4-1 (.8000) to 2-1-1 (.6250). The common opponents are MSU and Yale. Even if we beat Yale 3 more times (1 RS and 2 playoffs), that only gets us up to 5-1-1 (.7857). Therefore, we need help from MSU - they need to beat UNO in the playoffs for us to win common opponents. RPI could still flip, too, so this one is probably still a tossup.

BU: lose the comparison 1-1 on RPI of .5501 to .5419. BU still has Northeastern (2x, maybe 3 in the 'pot) and UMass on the schedule, but also Harvard, UNHx2, Vermontx2, and possibly BC in the 'pot. Their RPI will probably rise, so I don't think we'll catch them. Their record vs TUC is 8-5-2 (.6000), so it's pretty much the same story as UNO - as long as we don't tank horribly against our remaining TUCs, we'll probably keep this point. Right now, common opponents is tied at 2-1-1. The common opponents are Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth, and Northeastern. We each have 3 more games currently scheduled (Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth for us and Harvard and Northeasternx2 for them, plus could see Northeastern again in the 'pot, too.) vs. common opponents. Northeastern (1-18-6) is as close to a sure thing as you can get and the Harvard game is in the BU invitational, so I'm guessing that BU will do better in their games (3-0, perhaps 4-0) than we will do vs.Harvard, RPI, and Dartmouth - we'll probably drop a point somewhere in there, and that will give the point to BU. On the other hand, chances are that we'll see at least one of our common opponents in the ECAC playoffs, so even if we both sweep the remaining 3 games and both end up at 5-1-1, we'll have more of a chance to improve in the playoffs than BU will, so we could still take the point. Either way, go Harvard and go Northeastern.

CC: we lose 2-1. CC has RPI by .0132, so we probably won't get that. We have TUC pretty secure (they're only at .4412), so we have to flip common opponents: Union, UMD, and MSU. They're at 3-1 with 2 games remaining vs UMD. We only have Union once, and we're at 1-2-1. Even if UMD sweeps (yeah, right) and we beat Union, the best we do is tie at .500, so CC keeps the comparison 1-1 on RPI tiebreaker, unless we get another win vs. Union in the playoffs and CC doesn't beat UMD in the WCHA playoffs. Either way, go UMD.

Miami: we lose 1-1 on RPI, where they are crushing us, .5772 to .5419. Not gonna happen. We have TUC at .7143, but they are right behind at 13-5-2 (.7000). If we do worse than .700 in our remaining TUC games (Gate, Clarkson (for now), SLU, Dartmouth, and Harvard), this will flip back to Miami, so we need 7 points (3-1-1) in those games just to stay even. If Miami goes better than .700 in THEIR remaining TUC games (all 6 of their remaining games are TUCs), then we'd need to do even better to keep this point. Go Miami's opponents and go us. Common opponents (Clarkson, SLU, RPI, MSU) are even at 2-0-1, we need to do better in our 3 remaining games (Clarkson, SLU, and RPI) than they do in theirs (MSUx2). From above, I don't think we'll retake the MSU comparison anyway, so go MSU, which will help us keep TUC and win common opponents vs. Miami.

UMinn: we lose 2-1. Their RPI is untouchable at .5958. Their TUC is .6389, so we'll again need to be in the range of 3-1-1 or better vs. our remaining TUCs to keep this point. They have common opponents (UMD, MSU, Union, Niagara) 3-1-2 to 3-2-1. They have Duluth twice more and we have Union, so if we beat Union, that'll get us to 4-2-1 (.6429). so we'd need UMD to at least split to take UMinn down to 4-2-2 (.6250) to take the point. If UMinn sweeps UMD to get to 5-1-2 (.7500), we can't catch them even if we beat Union 3 times to get to 6-2-1 (.7222), so we'd need UMD to beat UMinn in their playoffs. Whatever - go UMD. That's our only hope for flipping this comparison.

Wisconsin: we lose 2-1. Again, an unassailable RPI of .6041, and a pretty similar story on TUCs: they're at .6842, so we need to go about 3-1-1 vs our remaining TUCs to keep this point. If we can do this, this again comes down to common opponents: SLU, MSU, UMD. They're 3-1, we're 2-1-1. They have one game remaining vs. UMD and we have one with SLU. Obviously, we need to win and they need to lose. If Wisconsin beats UMD tomorrow night, they'll be at 4-1 (.8000) so we wouldn't be able to catch them even with 3 wins vs. SLU (5-1-1 = .7857). We'd need to get 3 wins vs SLU and have UMD beat Wisconsin in the WCHAs.

So, to summarize my thoughts: The only comparison that seems mathematically out of reach is the MSU one - oh, to have that weekend in Nov to do over! Our fate is almost entirely in UMD's hands - if they were to go on a tear right now and win out, we'd probably pick up comparisons vs Wisconsin, UMinn, and UND. It looks like extra wins in the ECAC playoffs over Union, SLU, Clarkson, RPI, Harvard, or Yale have the potential to help us win some of these comparisons, so we want to stay away from Colgate, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Brown, and Princeton.

Teams to cheer for: UMD in a big way, MSU, Harvard and Northeastern (vs. BU)
Teams to cheer against: all of the teams we're losing to except MSU.

I think that's it. Time for ->