2005-2006 PWR - playoffs edition!

[A-19]

this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2006/03/02_tourney.php

[ebilmes]

[quote A-19]this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2006/03/02_tourney.php[/quote]

Who honestly believes that we deserve a #1 seed?

[Beeeej]

[quote ebilmes][quote A-19]this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2006/03/02_tourney.php[/quote]

Who honestly believes that we deserve a #1 seed?[/quote]

If we won out, and other things happened that mathematically delivered unto us a #1 seed, we'd "deserve" a #1 seed.

Beeeej

[Chris \'03]

There are two ways to look at the PWR at this point: root for the chips to fall so that Cornell finishes as high as possible or root for the chips to fall in such a way that lets Cornell stay east for the NCAAs. There are probably some overlaps and certainly some differences.

The easier analysis is the Cornell maximizing scenario. Here's some things to root for:
- Cornell to win out.
- Niagara to win the CHA. 2 TUC wins could come in handy.
- Canisius to win the AHA somehow some way. Again, a TUC win would help.
- Cornell to play (and beat) at least one of SLU/Clarkson/RPI. That would break the CoP tie with Miami and help flip that comparison (Cornell would still need some help in RPI)
- North Dakota to do some losing. Cornell flips that comparison if it can close a .0058 RPI gap. The CoP and TUC are split and won't change.
- Clarkson to either lose the next two, bow out with an RPI < .500 or play and be swept by Cornell next week.
- Loses by Union and RPI tonight dropped their RPI to below .4900 which should be low enough that even with series wins they don't threaten to be TUC's. Both teams bowing out wouldn't hurt though given Cornell's record against them this season.
- If Harvard plays SLU next week, it would help if they lost at least once. A 2-0 TUC boost for the Crimson would flip the comparison in Harvard's favor. The CU/HU comparison could be big in determining whether Cornell is a 2 or 3 seed down the line. Beating SLU 2-0 flips the comparison. Beating them 2-1 does not. It also goes without saying that if the two meet Cornell has to win.
- Maine to do some losing. Cornell currently leads the comparison 2-1 but is losing RPI by .0015. A loss to UMass tomorrow would be nice. A quick exit from the HEA tourney would be nicer. Could be rooting for Vermont at Alfond next week.
- Denver to stop winning! As I write this CC tied them up 6x5. Win or Tie, DU will probably flip the Cornell comparison. Cornell leads in RPI by .0006 for now.
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope.
- There's obviously more to root for, but these are a few to start.

The analysis of keeping Cornell east is much more difficult. If by some miracle Cornell rises to a 1 seed, they'd be in Albany unless UND falls to a 4 and all hell breaks loose with intraconference matchups out west. Strictly by bracket integrity, presuming the WCHA teams hold 1-2 in the overall, Cornell finishing 7,8,9, or 10 is a ticket west. There are so many teams fighting for those spots right now that it's hard to nail down any formula. Someone else is welcome to run through those possibilities.

With all Fri. results now in, the DU tie flipped the Cornell comparison and Cornell is now alone in 10th:

Rk    Team            PWR    Record    W-L-T            Win %    Rk    RPI
1    Minnesota    29    1    24-6-5            .7571    1    .5863
2    Wisconsin    28    4    22-9-3            .6912    2    .5761
3    Miami            27    2    23-7-4            .7353    4    .5661
4t    BU            25    7    20-9-4            .6667    3    .5661
4t    Michigan State    25    10t    20-10-8    .6316    5    .5604
6    Colorado College24    10t    23-13-2    .6316    6    .5503
7t    North Dakota    21    15    22-14-1    .6081    7    .5487
7t    Harvard    21    12    17-10-2    .6207    8    .5455
7t    Nebraska-Omaha    21    18    19-12-6    .5946    13    .5429
10    Cornell    20    6    17-7-4            .6786    11    .5431
11t    Maine            19    5    23-10-2    .6857    9    .5445
11t    Denver            19    17    20-13-3    .5972    10    .5439
13    Michigan    18    24    18-13-5    .5694    12    .5430
14    Boston College    17    9    20-10-3    .6515    14    .5367
15    New Hampshire    16    20    17-11-7    .5857    16    .5319
16    Dartmouth    14    19    16-11-2    .5862    15    .5331
17    Northern Mich    12    21    20-14-2    .5833    22    .5224
18    Providence    11    25t    17-13-3    .5606    20    .5246
19t    Ferris State    10    29    16-13-8    .5405    17    .5315
19t    St. Lawrence    10    22    18-13-2    .5758    18    .5281*
21    UAF        9    30t    16-14-5    .5286    21    .5241
22    Vermont    8    16    18-11-6    .6000    24    .5194
23    Ohio State    7    37    15-18-5    .4605    25    .5187
24t    Holy Cross    5    3    22-9-2            .6970    19    .5268
24t    Colgate    5    13    18-10-6    .6176    23    .5200
26t    Sacred Heart    4    8    20-10-2    .6563    27    .5161
26t    St. Cloud     4    23    18-13-4    .5714    26    .5173
28t    Lake Superior    3    30t    15-13-7    .5286    28    .5148
28t    Minnesota St    3    33    16-16-4    .5000    29    .5039
30    Clarkson    0    32    16-15-3    .5147    30    .5008

[nyc94]

Canisius?

[Chris \'03]

[quote nyc94]Canisius?[/quote]

Yeah. Don't wins last year count for the PWR this year? I totally thought that game wa this year when I wrote that. ::uhoh::  I think everything else is right.

Since the AHA champ doesn't have much of an impact on Cornell so I'll root for Canisius now. Go Griffs...

[Jim Hyla]

[quote Chris '03]The easier analysis is the Cornell maximizing scenario. Here's some things to root for:
- Cornell to win out.
- Niagara to win the CHA. 2 TUC wins could come in handy.
- Canisius to win the AHA somehow some way. Again, a TUC win would help.
- Cornell to play (and beat) at least one of SLU/Clarkson/RPI. That would break the CoP tie with Miami and help flip that comparison (Cornell would still need some help in RPI)
- North Dakota to do some losing. Cornell flips that comparison if it can close a .0058 RPI gap. The CoP and TUC are split and won't change.
- Clarkson to either lose the next two, bow out with an RPI < .500 or play and be swept by Cornell next week.
- Loses by Union and RPI tonight dropped their RPI to below .4900 which should be low enough that even with series wins they don't threaten to be TUC's. Both teams bowing out wouldn't hurt though given Cornell's record against them this season.
- If Harvard plays SLU next week, it would help if they lost at least once. A 2-0 TUC boost for the Crimson would flip the comparison in Harvard's favor. The CU/HU comparison could be big in determining whether Cornell is a 2 or 3 seed down the line. Beating SLU 2-0 flips the comparison. Beating them 2-1 does not. It also goes without saying that if the two meet Cornell has to win.
- Maine to do some losing. Cornell currently leads the comparison 2-1 but is losing RPI by .0015. A loss to UMass tomorrow would be nice. A quick exit from the HEA tourney would be nicer. Could be rooting for Vermont at Alfond next week.
- Denver to stop winning! As I write this CC tied them up 6x5. Win or Tie, DU will probably flip the Cornell comparison. Cornell leads in RPI by .0006 for now.
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope.
- There's obviously more to root for, but these are a few to start. [/quote] ::nut::  ::nut::  ::nut:: I think it's time for bed.

[calgARI '07]

I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus?  Because without it, Cornell is alone in 7th.  Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?

[jy3]

clarkson becoming a tuc hurt. root for them to lose two more. plus isnt it hard to get tickets from the clarkson ticket office?

[Ken \'70]

I'd say root for exactly the same results tonight.  That way we play Clarkson and, while winning, either 1) knock them from TUC - Good, or 2) beat them twice while they hang on to TUC and thus we add two more TUC wins - Good

We want to control our destiny re: Clarkson's TUC status, not have them play someone else and stay TUC.

Another reason to play them is they'll come in with a 17-15 record, so we may get a small RPI boost from beating them.  Playing and beating Brown, Yale, Princeton, Union, QU or even RPI wouldn't be as helpful.

[Ken \'70]

[quote Chris '03]
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope. [/quote]

UMD's RPI will stay about where it is with another result like friday. Since they're at .500 they are at the exact point where a win or a loss has the highest impact on their own record, which is 25% of RPI.  Losing again tonight drops their win % to .486 which is enough to almost offset adding another instance of MN's record to their Opp record column.

They're playing at DU in the WCHA quarters.  They'll lose two more there putting their win % at .463, even if they win one of three.  They don't need to get swept.

There's only one case of a TUC having a losing record, that's OSU which has the highest strength of schedule in the country.  UMD's is currently 32nd, and they'll being playing Denver who's win rank is only 17th.  

No way they stay TUC, unless they win 2 more games.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote calgARI '07]I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus?[/quote]

No, but it is sure they'll use some bonus, and its been in that range. The numbers aren't released.


[quote calgARI '07]Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?[/quote]

You're a smart guy, Ari. I suggest you take some time to learn how the PWR works a bit more. So you know why no one can just answer that question. Or if you already do know and are just being lazy, well that I totallly respect

http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=pwrexplanation

[calgARI '07]

[quote DeltaOne81][quote calgARI '07]I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus?[/quote]

No, but it is sure they'll use some bonus, and its been in that range. The numbers aren't released.


[quote calgARI '07]Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?[/quote]

You're a smart guy, Ari. I suggest you take some time to learn how the PWR works a bit more. So you know why no one can just answer that question. Or if you already do know and are just being lazy, well that I totallly respect

http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=pwrexplanation[/quote]

Sometimes I feel like I really understand it whereas others I just don't know.  I just want to go to Albany or Worcester and really dont wanna go to North Dakota or Wisconsin.  Maybe I'll just start praying or something.

[jy3]

yeah i know what u mean ari. I just want to go to ithaca for the playoffs next weekend...cant find tickets. clarkson is usually a bitch to get tix from...I hope cornell plays someone other than clarkson.

[billhoward]

PWR maybe makes sense if you just capture one snapshot at season's end (or seeding time) and it is what it is. Following it daily as the season winds down, you see that Cornell is unchanged as a team and unchanged in its abilities to play hockey (in sickness or health), yet our potential seed and playoff location bounces around if North Dakota wins or RPI loses. Especially vexing when we're affected by a team that plays a team we never played.

Or is it like democracy ... worst form of government except everything tried before?