What a difference one goal makes

margolism · February 09, 2015, 01:50:40 PM

It's amazing where this season would be if Cornell could just muster one more goal per game.

1. Our offense ranking (nationally) would be 28th in the country, a hair above the national median. Far better than where we are now at 54th in the country, which is not too far from the two lowest scoring teams in the land, Lake Superior State and Princeton. Two teams we lost to, to boot.

2. By my calculations, our record would be 13-4-6.

Assuming we scored one more goal in regulation:

- Games 2, 3, and 4, all one-goal losses in regulation, would have instead been ties.
- The 3-1 loss to Denver would be a 2-2 tie. We wouldn't have pulled our goalie and allowed an ENG.
- We would have won against Lake Superior State
- Our second game against St. Lawrence would have ended as a 2-2 tie. Once again, we wouldn't have pulled the goalie, allowing the ENG.
- The 2-2 tie against Colgate would instead be a 3-2 win
- Our most recent loss to Q would have been a tie

3. Significantly, this would have given Cornell 5 more points in the ECAC standings. (4 losses would be ties, 1 tie would be a win.)

We would be in 3rd place as of now, with 22 points, and 3 points out of first place. (Q would have two fewer points, St L one less point.)

4. I didn't get into it, but I would imagine our national ranking and other tournament qualifying statistics would also be higher.

We don't need to be an offensive powerhouse. Just score one more goal a game...

ithacat · February 09, 2015, 02:00:48 PM

Quote from: margolismIt's amazing where this season would be if Cornell could just muster one more goal per game.

- Our most recent loss to Q would have been a tie

One goal on Friday would have been a win, most likely, and a shutout for Mitch.

BMac · February 09, 2015, 02:29:02 PM

How realistic is one more goal per game, though?

I'd argue that just one more *goal*- not per game, just one goal- would have likely won the championship in 2004-05 or 2005-06 (when we lost to the eventual champion in regional finals, at their home state rink, in xOT).

So... you know, coulda shoulda woulda. Give us the injured guys back and maybe we can turn this thing around. One thing I'll say about this team though- I've never cheered for a frisky Cornell team. We've always been consistently good, then consistently bad. This business of suddenly dropping 5 on Union, beating Colgate at home, beating Harvard in OT- it's kinda fun! We're unpredictable all of a sudden. At least that's what it seems like to me- admittedly I've watched significantly fewer games this season compared to the last few.

upprdeck · February 09, 2015, 02:29:05 PM

If we could just get a a few more replays to go our way. the replays against Quin both didnt really happent but one was changed and one was ignored.. turned 2 ties at worst into 1-1 but instead ended up 0-2. those 2 pts puts us into 3rd without scoring another goal at all.

billhoward · February 09, 2015, 02:57:03 PM

Instead of one more goal per game, how about it we scored 2 goals a game, every game, and had to protect that lead? 51 of 59 teams average 2 GPG or better. We'd have a couple more regulation wins and we wouldn't have been guarding an empty net and given up ENGs in games that could have been a win and a couple ties. We would have started the season with wins at Princeton and Quinnipiac.

Beeeej · February 09, 2015, 04:02:16 PM

Not that I don't respect hypotheticals, but as long as we're wishing, why not wish for an absurd, record-setting string of brutal, dominating shutouts, culminating in an exciting (but ultimately not really that close) national championship game where we finally win our third NCAA title (the day after Gillam wins the Hobey, natch)?

upprdeck · February 09, 2015, 04:09:16 PM

I think we have a better chance of wishing we could allow one goal less than wishing we could score one goal more..

Chris '03 · February 09, 2015, 04:12:36 PM

Quote from: upprdeckI think we have a better chance of wishing we could allow one goal less than wishing we could score one goal more..

I look forward to the taem's first 0 to -1 win...

Trotsky · February 09, 2015, 04:31:05 PM

Fewer Goddammit, not less.

Trotsky · February 09, 2015, 04:36:41 PM

Quote from: upprdeckI think we have a better chance of wishing we could allow one goal less than wishing we could score one goal more..

Nah, we're below the mean in goals allowed as it is, so we're pushing against a steeper gradient. If "force" is some conceptual combination of ability, preparation, effort, and luck, it requires far more force to move the same distance the farther you move from the mean.

Our best bet is for Algernop Krieger to fix Lowry.

Towerroad · February 09, 2015, 04:37:01 PM

I is very easy to say what the desired result should be. The real question is how. What should the Coach do differently to achieve this desired result?

upprdeck · February 09, 2015, 07:02:44 PM

I think the amazing thing is any team going like 30 years between snippers.. derrough and lemon were so long ago . if only we had a moulson/gallagher 20 goal scorers, just 2 double digit goal scorers make the team harder to defend. ferlin alone i think adds 2-3 wins.

we should make a pool for next time cornell has a 30 goal guy again.. it might roll over for 20 more years.

BearLover · February 09, 2015, 09:02:40 PM

It is true that we were quite possibly one goal away from a national championship multiple times in the last decade (which makes the Yale and Union championships 10x more frustrating), but I don't think it's particularly farfetched to wonder where Cornell would be if they scored about one more goal per game.

One more goal per game would give them an average--not even good, but average--offense. They would have a bye in the ECAC tourney and probably make the NCAA's. We cannot expect this team to play better defense, but we can justifiably expect it to score more goals. Because this team has 7 draft picks, multiple recruiting advantages, and is yet the 54th best offense in the country! I don't think there is a team in the country with as much room to improve+ability to improve as Cornell.

Swampy · February 09, 2015, 09:07:51 PM

Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: upprdeckI think we have a better chance of wishing we could allow one goal less than wishing we could score one goal more..
Nah, we're below the mean in goals allowed as it is, so we're pushing against a steeper gradient. If "force" is some conceptual combination of ability, preparation, effort, and luck, it requires far more force to move the same distance the farther you move from the mean.

Our best bet is for Algernop Krieger to fix Lowry.

Say what?

With standard Newtonian physics, F=ma. If the mean location is the origin, point A = (0,0), but one starts at B = (10,10) instead of A and moves to x+5, where x is the horizontal coordinate of either A or B, F still equals ma no matter where you started.

You seem to be assuming some nonlinearities in the hockey determinants of F, or perhaps a gravitational pull, or perhaps a Harvard suck. Please state you assumptions.

Swampy · February 09, 2015, 09:14:31 PM

Quote from: upprdeckI think the amazing thing is any team going like 30 years between snippers.. derrough and lemon were so long ago . if only we had a moulson/gallagher 20 goal scorers, just 2 double digit goal scorers make the team harder to defend. ferlin alone i think adds 2-3 wins.

we should make a pool for next time cornell has a 30 goal guy again.. it might roll over for 20 more years.

What do you think the explanation for this is? Recruiting? Coaching? Players going early to the pros? The System^(TM)?

Other teams seem to be able to be able to be above average defensively and offensively. Why can't Cornell? ::bang::