What a difference one goal makes

[Jim Hyla]

I think the amazing thing is any team going like 30 years between snippers..  derrough and lemon were so long ago . if only we had a moulson/gallagher 20 goal scorers, just 2 double digit goal scorers make the team harder to defend. ferlin alone i think adds 2-3 wins.

we should make a pool for next time cornell has a 30 goal guy again.. it might roll over for 20 more years.

What do you think the explanation for this is? Recruiting? Coaching? Players going early to the pros? The System^(TM)?

Other teams seem to be able to be able to be above average defensively and offensively. Why can't Cornell? ::bang::

How about our seniors didn't turn out as good as projected. Ferlin and maybe Ryan and Bardreau gave us something of what I expected. Ryan is still not as good this year as last, lingering injury? Bardreau has not done as well as I expected, after getting picked for Juniors. Lowry probable came close, but of course he's no longer able. Overall I, and I expect most, were expecting considerable offense from these guys and they just didn't give it. Nor do I think it's the system holding them back, I just don't see it coming from them.

[margolism]

It is true that we were quite possibly one goal away from a national championship multiple times in the last decade (which makes the Yale and Union championships 10x more frustrating), but I don't think it's particularly farfetched to wonder where Cornell would be if they scored about one more goal per game.  

One more goal per game would give them an average--not even good, but average--offense.  They would have a bye in the ECAC tourney and probably make the NCAA's.  We cannot expect this team to play better defense, but we can justifiably expect it to score more goals.  Because this team has 7 draft picks, multiple recruiting advantages, and is yet the 54th best offense in the country!  I don't think there is a team in the country with as much room to improve+ability to improve as Cornell.

This was my intention.  I am not dreaming of Cornell as an elite offensive team.  I was just imagining where they could be with a middle-of-the-road offense.

[imafrshmn]

I think we have a better chance of wishing we could allow one goal less than wishing we could score one goal more..

Nah, we're below the mean in goals allowed as it is, so we're pushing against a steeper gradient.  If "force" is some conceptual combination of ability, preparation, effort, and luck, it requires far more force to move the same distance the farther you move from the mean.

Our best bet is for Algernop Krieger to fix Lowry.

Say what?

With standard Newtonian physics, F=ma. If the mean location is the origin, point A = (0,0), but one starts at B = (10,10) instead of A and moves to x+5, where x is the horizontal coordinate of either A or B, F still equals ma no matter where you started.

You seem to be assuming some nonlinearities in the hockey determinants of F, or perhaps a gravitational pull, or perhaps a Harvard suck. Please state you assumptions.

sounds like he was making a spring or pendulum analogy, which makes sense to me.

[cbuckser]

How about our seniors didn't turn out as good as projected. Ferlin and maybe Ryan and Bardreau gave us something of what I expected. Ryan is still not as good this year as last, lingering injury? Bardreau has not done as well as I expected, after getting picked for Juniors. Lowry probable came close, but of course he's no longer able. Overall I, and I expect most, were expecting considerable offense from these guys and they just didn't give it. Nor do I think it's the system holding them back, I just don't see it coming from them.

Bingo. This is the reason the team has struggled for three consecutive seasons.

The Class of 2015 came in with an excellent pedigree, and many of its players became key contributors from Day One. They helped a team with four seniors earn an NCAA Tournament berth and beat Michigan in the first round. In my lifetime, a Cornell team with a thin senior class had never been so successful.

So we had high hopes that the Class of 2015 would lead the team to be national-championship contenders for the next three years. That hasn't happened.

If this were a common phenomenon for Cornell, I think it would be fair to blame the coaching staff. But I believe that the Class of 2015's trajectory has been unprecedented in the Schafer Era.

Hopefully, it will remain an aberration. I don't want to go through a 20-year period of perpetual underachieving like Harvard had from 1994-95 through last season.

[Jim Hyla]

How about our seniors didn't turn out as good as projected. Ferlin and maybe Ryan and Bardreau gave us something of what I expected. Ryan is still not as good this year as last, lingering injury? Bardreau has not done as well as I expected, after getting picked for Juniors. Lowry probable came close, but of course he's no longer able. Overall I, and I expect most, were expecting considerable offense from these guys and they just didn't give it. Nor do I think it's the system holding them back, I just don't see it coming from them.

Bingo. This is the reason the team has struggled for three consecutive seasons.

The Class of 2015 came in with an excellent pedigree, and many of its players became key contributors from Day One. They helped a team with four seniors earn an NCAA Tournament berth and beat Michigan in the first round. In my lifetime, a Cornell team with a thin senior class had never been so successful.

So we had high hopes that the Class of 2015 would lead the team to be national-championship contenders for the next three years. That hasn't happened.

If this were a common phenomenon for Cornell, I think it would be fair to blame the coaching staff. But I believe that the Class of 2015's trajectory has been unprecedented in the Schafer Era.

Hopefully, it will remain an aberration. I don't want to go through a 20-year period of perpetual underachieving like Harvard had from 1994-95 through last season.

Why stop at last season.:-D

[Scersk '97]

This!

Bingo.

The most glaring problem is that they lack a Paolini-type. Should've been McCarron: his trajectory on offense is the one with which I'm most disappointed.

The result of his most recent game-changing charging of the net notwithstanding, Hilbrich at least seems to have gotten it. That encourages me. I'm hoping that either Weidner or Kubiak turns into another one. Or maybe Yates or Tschantz. Or, hell, tell Stoick that developing into a "screening wing" is now his new goal.

PS I still hold out hope that Ryan can get back to his old self soon. Perhaps when the "other" McCarron comes back. Will he ever?

[margolism]

Not sure how this compares to previous years, but through 23 games, we have been shut out 5 times already, or 20% of the time.  (Actually, just under 22%.) This has resulted in four losses and one tie thus far.

I believe four of those five games were ECAC games.

I don't know if it is players not playing up to their potential, coaching, chemistry, or just poor luck, but it is clear that our inconsistent scoring is keeping down what should otherwise be an NCAA tournament team.

[Towerroad]

How about our seniors didn't turn out as good as projected. Ferlin and maybe Ryan and Bardreau gave us something of what I expected. Ryan is still not as good this year as last, lingering injury? Bardreau has not done as well as I expected, after getting picked for Juniors. Lowry probable came close, but of course he's no longer able. Overall I, and I expect most, were expecting considerable offense from these guys and they just didn't give it. Nor do I think it's the system holding them back, I just don't see it coming from them.

Bingo. This is the reason the team has struggled for three consecutive seasons.

The Class of 2015 came in with an excellent pedigree, and many of its players became key contributors from Day One. They helped a team with four seniors earn an NCAA Tournament berth and beat Michigan in the first round. In my lifetime, a Cornell team with a thin senior class had never been so successful.

So we had high hopes that the Class of 2015 would lead the team to be national-championship contenders for the next three years. That hasn't happened.

If this were a common phenomenon for Cornell, I think it would be fair to blame the coaching staff. But I believe that the Class of 2015's trajectory has been unprecedented in the Schafer Era.

Hopefully, it will remain an aberration. I don't want to go through a 20-year period of perpetual underachieving like Harvard had from 1994-95 through last season.

I think you are letting the coaching staff off way too easily. They recrutied the "underperforming class", they coached the "underperforming class", they are the architects of "The System ^(tm). Sorry, there are some well paid professionals who need to take some responsibility here.

[upprdeck]

if anything the lack of scoring is perplexing because in many games its not for lack of quality chances. I think the last several weeks they have improved in many areas on offense but the goals are still not coming. it feels like we are generating more shots, more shots getting on goal.  still way to many empty net chances not being finished.  still the margin from a bad team at scoring to a good team is only 1 goal.

[Trotsky]

I think we have a better chance of wishing we could allow one goal less than wishing we could score one goal more..

Nah, we're below the mean in goals allowed as it is, so we're pushing against a steeper gradient.  If "force" is some conceptual combination of ability, preparation, effort, and luck, it requires far more force to move the same distance the farther you move from the mean.

Our best bet is for Algernop Krieger to fix Lowry.

Say what?

With standard Newtonian physics, F=ma. If the mean location is the origin, point A = (0,0), but one starts at B = (10,10) instead of A and moves to x+5, where x is the horizontal coordinate of either A or B, F still equals ma no matter where you started.

You seem to be assuming some nonlinearities in the hockey determinants of F, or perhaps a gravitational pull, or perhaps a Harvard suck. Please state you assumptions.

sounds like he was making a spring or pendulum analogy, which makes sense to me.

I'm not well versed in the physics of ceiling (and floor) effects.  What I need is a model where increasing force at a constant rate gets you asymptotically closer to a limit, hitting which would require the addition of infinite force.  Prosaically, I'm saying it requires less "force" to go from 2.5 to 1.5 GA/GP then 1.5 to 0.5 GA/GP.

[Dafatone]

How about our seniors didn't turn out as good as projected. Ferlin and maybe Ryan and Bardreau gave us something of what I expected. Ryan is still not as good this year as last, lingering injury? Bardreau has not done as well as I expected, after getting picked for Juniors. Lowry probable came close, but of course he's no longer able. Overall I, and I expect most, were expecting considerable offense from these guys and they just didn't give it. Nor do I think it's the system holding them back, I just don't see it coming from them.

Bingo. This is the reason the team has struggled for three consecutive seasons.

The Class of 2015 came in with an excellent pedigree, and many of its players became key contributors from Day One. They helped a team with four seniors earn an NCAA Tournament berth and beat Michigan in the first round. In my lifetime, a Cornell team with a thin senior class had never been so successful.

So we had high hopes that the Class of 2015 would lead the team to be national-championship contenders for the next three years. That hasn't happened.

If this were a common phenomenon for Cornell, I think it would be fair to blame the coaching staff. But I believe that the Class of 2015's trajectory has been unprecedented in the Schafer Era.

Hopefully, it will remain an aberration. I don't want to go through a 20-year period of perpetual underachieving like Harvard had from 1994-95 through last season.

I think you are letting the coaching staff off way too easily. They recrutied the "underperforming class", they coached the "underperforming class", they are the architects of "The System ^(tm). Sorry, there are some well paid professionals who need to take some responsibility here.

Again, I feel it needs to be pointed out that our "bad" years are years where we go .500.  Plenty of teams would take .500 as a bad year.

Somehow, Wisconsin is 2-18-4.  Big programs can have much, much, much worse years than .500.

[cbuckser]

I think you are letting the coaching staff off way too easily. They recrutied the "underperforming class", they coached the "underperforming class", they are the architects of "The System ^(tm). Sorry, there are some well paid professionals who need to take some responsibility here.

I have some criticisms of the coaching staff, but I don't believe that systemic failures caused the senior class to fall short of expectations. I have not perceived a drop off in the quality of recruits. I don't understand why The System ^(TM) would have suited the Class of 2012 but failed the Class of 2015. I don't see enough evidence to support the conclusion that the coaching staff has a subpar record developing forwards. However, I concede that the player-development question, particularly with respect to playmaking forwards and pure scorers, is the most debatable of the three.

[margolism]

I do think that, from a recruiting perspective, if you don't get kids who were prolific scorers in junior hockey, it will be hard to convert them to prolific scorers at the college level.  I don't know if you can rewire kids into top goal scorers.  Many of the current (and past) forwards, in their junior leagues, just didn't score a ton of goals.  

Case in point for some currently recruited forwards:

Ott (1G, 1A in 30 games)
Kubachka (8G in 44 games)
Otterman (4G in 24 games)

[Swampy]

I do think that, from a recruiting perspective, if you don't get kids who were prolific scorers in junior hockey, it will be hard to convert them to prolific scorers at the college level.  I don't know if you can rewire kids into top goal scorers.  Many of the current (and past) forwards, in their junior leagues, just didn't score a ton of goals.  

Case in point for some currently recruited forwards:

Ott (1G, 1A in 30 games)
Kubachka (8G in 44 games)
Otterman (4G in 24 games)

Given how many teams are ahead of us in scoring, I have to believe there are more prolific scorers out there. So is recruitiing them more difficult than MVP goalies or defensemen who make it to the NHL?

[Cop at Lynah]

I believe it's a known trend that our recruits are younger than in previous time periods.  It was never unusual to get freshman in at 20-22 years old.  Now most of the freshman are 18-20 years old.  The younger age brings with it a steeper curve as it relates to be ready for NCAA level of play.  

I remember a former Cornell assistant coach telling me a few years ago that he couldn't believe that Cornell had resorted to recruiting high school kids.  Never paid much attention to it at the time, but maybe it actually means something ?