Bracketology Sunday

[Scersk '97]

Even though it seems John, et al. will be debuting some tool (heh) on USCHO soon, I figured I'd post what I'm using for others convenience.  Here are the finals from tonight and the rest of the schedule--I think, someone can double check--filled out with the higher KRACH teams winning:

20050313 Da 0 Vt 1 NC
20050313 AA 0 Wi 1 NC
20050313 FS 0 OS 1 NC
20050313 WM 0 NM 1 NC
20050313 AH 0 BS 1 NC
20050317 MS 1 NO 0 NC
20050317 Ak 0 NM 1 NC
20050317 ND 0 Wi 1 NC
20050318 Me 0 BC 1 NC
20050318 NH 1 BU 0 NC
20050318 Vt 0 Cr 1 NC
20050318 Cg 0 Ha 1 NC
20050318 MS 0 Mi 1 NC
20050318 NM 0 OS 1 NC
20050318 Wi 0 DU 1 NC
20050318 Mn 0 CC 1 NC
20050318 By 0 Qn 1 NC
20050318 HC 1 Mh 0 NC
20050319 NH 0 BC 1 NC
20050319 Ha 0 Cr 1 NC
20050319 Vt 0 Cg 1 NC
20050319 OS 0 Mi 1 NC
20050319 MS 0 NM 1 NC
20050319 CC 1 DU 0 NC
20050319 Wi 0 Mn 1 NC
20050319 HC 0 Qn 1 NC

Did I miss a conso?

[jtwcornell91]

[Q]Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:

Has that been tested though, Scott? If MN didn't have to play at home, it's be the Red and Gophers 1/2 in one of the eastern regionals. No argument there. But because MN can't move and because the committe has, "made a concerted effort in the two years the 16-team field has existed to maintain a strict bracket" (uscho's words) can you say that young Grant is in fact correct? I'd reason that the committee is so stuck on bracket integrity that they'd reward MN not only with home ice but also with the weakest 1 seed.

The 16 team field has only existed for two years. In both cases the one seeds were split east and west, but I don't think there was a situation where bracket integrity butted heads with the geographic placement of 1 seeds. [/q]

RTFM: http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/iceHockey/2005/2005_d1_m_ice_hockey_handbook.pdf

Or if you only believe what USCHO tells you, read Jayson Moy's column from last week, where he puts the overall #1 and #5 in the same regional: http://www.uscho.com/news/2005/03/07_010230.php

For hockey, "bracket integrity" means having one 1-seed, one 2-seed, one 3-seed, and one 4-seed in each regional.  Seeding the tournament 1-16 is not explicitly described in the handbook, but presumably falls under the heading of "competitive equity" which should not override the specific directives.

[Scersk '97]

[Q]Dart~Ben Wrote:

 FWIW, here's how Dartmouth backs into the NCAA tourny.

Bucky losing to NoDak would be big. Michigan winning the CCHA tourny is likewise a near must. Cornell or Harvard must win the ECAC tourny. NMU is likely out of the picture. Less certain on whether tOSU must lose twice or if they can win once and still leave Dartmouth in the hunt.[/q]

So, I changed what you suggested in my list above, and, well, Dartmouth won't back into the tourney like that.  I'll tell you what would help, though:  Holy Cross winning the AHA tournament.  

Not to be cruel, but, boy, am I glad the very continuation of our season doesn't depend on something as seemingly insignificant as the AHA championship game.  :-D

Imagine that:  you guys could end up having a beef with Quinnipiac before they even join the league.  Lucky you.  (Where's that St. Patrick's Day smiley?)

[Avash]

Playing around with the You are the Committee feature on USCHO, and using a .003/.002/.001 bonus, Cornell finishes second in the pairwise rankings if the following occurs:

CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks. 
CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State. 
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan. 
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. 
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State. 
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. 
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate. 
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont. 
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard. 
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Vermont. 
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire. 
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine. 
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College. 
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota. 
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota. 
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin. 
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver. 
WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota.***
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross. 
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley. 
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst. 

***If this game went the other way, Cornell finishes 4th in the PWR. Also, in both cases, Colgate is the last team in. Dartmouth is the last team out.

Keeping the CCHA and AHA picks the same, Cornell also finishes in 2nd overall if Maine beats BU for the HE title and CC beats Wisconsin for the WCHA title (with Minnesota losing the consolation game).

If the higher seeds win every game in all conference tournaments, Cornell finishes 5th in the PWR.

Finally, this very reasonable set of results gives Cornell a #1 seed as the 3rd team overall in the PWR (BC, CC, Cornell, Denver, Minnesota):

CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks. 
CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State. 
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan. 
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. 
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State. 
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. 
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate. 
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont. 
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard. 
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate and Vermont tie. 
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire. 
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine. 
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University. 
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota. 
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota. 
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin. 
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver. 
WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin. 
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross. 
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley. 
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst. 

[adamw]

I just ran a scenario with Cornell at 2T - and both Colgate and Dartmouth in as No. 13 and No. 14:

CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Ohio State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Quinnipiac.

[Scersk '97]

Oh my.  I'm sure there are other ways for it to happen as much as I'm sure it's not going to happen, but oh my:

1   CC
2t  Cornell
2t  Denver
4   BC
5   Minnesota
6   Michigan
7   UNH
8   BU
9   North Dakota
10  Maine
11  Harvard
12  Colgate
13t Dartmouth
13t Vermont
**  Bemidji
**  Bentley

Yep:

ECAC(HL)  5
WCHA      4
HE        4
CCHA      1
CHA       1
AHA       1

Oh, oh, the howling!

Here are the inputs:

   
    * CCHA Play-in #2: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Northern Michigan.
    * CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Ohio State.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
    * CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Ohio State.
    * ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
    * ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
    * ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
    * ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.
    * Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Maine.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
    * WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
    * WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Bentley defeats Quinnipiac.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.

And, yes, Cornell wins the tournament in this scenario.

[A-19]

what does everyone think is more plausible: harvard or colgate winning the 2v3 game in albany? colgate took two this year, but harvard is playing better as a team more recently (save the beanpot episodes).
i'm not sure against which opponent we'd fare better either.

and it looks like all the above "you are the committee" results depend on 2 main things: minny doesnt win the wcha and bc doesnt win the hea. that may be overstating it. i'm sure someone could show we make the top 4 if both those things occur?

everyone keeps saying we are out of contention for a #1 seed if we lose in albany. has anyone run the numbers though? i'm just curious if there could be a situation in which everything else goes our way except our actual game and we still make it. at that point, if we are close, we might need the ecac hardware to convince the committee we deserve a #1 seed.

[adamw]

Actually, I've got a scenario with BC and Minnesota winning their tournament --  Cornell getting a 1 seed -- AND Colgate and Dartmouth both making it.... Don't ask me how, but here it is. ... Quinnipiac losing is huge.  And Colgate needs to win the semi.


CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac.

[Scersk '97]

Well, after one abortive attempt at bracketing my scenario, I came up with this:

Mariucci
   1   CC
     16   Bentley
     12   Colgate
   5   Minn

Amherst
   2   Cornell
     15   Bemidji
     11   Harvard
   7   UHN

GR
   3   Denver
     14   Vermont
     10   Maine
   6   Michigan

Worcester
   4   BC
     13   Dartmouth
      9   UND
   8   BU

As has been discussed, Minnesota as a #2 seed is problematic.  So is BU.  Personally, I think this is a great bracket.  CC gets screwed, Denver gets to play Michigan in hostile territory, and BC meets a team that gives them fits.  Cornell avoids a Big 4 first round game and then gets to play a grudge match to make it to Columbus.  Nice.

Ideally, we'd beat Michigan in the semi and BU for the championship.  "My head a splode."

[A-19]

how is the QU v holy cross game so significant, being as neither team is a TUC anyway, and they're only competing for one of the two weak autobids?

by the way, i can get us tied for 3 even if we lose the champ. game, though the inputs are incredibly unlikely (require msu and maine winning out, and wisconsin beating denver). so i guess nothing's impossible...

CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan State defeats Michigan.  (a bit unlikely)
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Ohio State. (a bit unlikely)
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan. (very unlikely)
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Cornell. (no no no)
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College. (a bit unlikely)
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston University. (more unlikely)
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats Denver. (more unlikely)
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac. (more unlikely)

[Scersk '97]

Somebody lost to Quinnipiac this season...  Dartmouth!

[A-19]

i just ran through lots of possible combinations and came to the following conclusion:

no matter what happens elsewhere, if cornell wins the tourney we are a #1 seed EXCEPT in one case (denver wins the WCHA and minny wins the consolation vs CC). that is, even if things that "need to" go our way (minny losing, maine winning, msu winning) don't, we still sneak in as long as we take care of business in albany (except in the aforementioned situation).

this is because if minny wins the WCHA we sneak ahead of denver (even if denver wins its consolation game), while if CC wins the WCHA we still sneak ahead of denver (regardless of who wins the consolation game, though the result is a messy tie for third which we win by pwr). in both of these situations, i have maine and msu losing outright, which won't necessarily happen (but would be the worst case scenario for our pwr). besides that one situation i mentioned, it's good to know that the destiny of the team is in their own hands.

conv. wisdom has been to root madly against cc and bc. i think another bottom line is to root like hell against denver, based on these results. yeah, and root against vermont, harvard and colgate too.

wow, it's 5am and i really should get to this iran defense paper.

-mike

[Ken \'70]

Under your scenario (DU winning WCHA, MN winning consolation) we still make a #1 seed as long as Maine beats BC in the HE semi and MI wins the WCHA championship

It's still preliminary, but the big out-of-towns on Friday look like Maine over BC and MI winning, and DU losing.  

[Al DeFlorio]

[Q]A-19 Wrote:

 how is the QU v holy cross game so significant, being as neither team is a TUC anyway, and they're only competing for one of the two weak autobids?
[/q]
The AHA champion will be a TUC come next Saturday night.

[ithacat]

[Q]ajec1 Wrote:

Wait, Cornell wearing white at Mariucci? Am I dreaming? That would be incredible (Even better if there were 10,000 fans in red!).[/q]

Yes, you're dreaming a mad dream. I believe Mariucci sells out, though their website says SRO and scattered tix were available for regular season games. Minny would have an enormous home ice advantage, not to mention they're 22-0 in WCHA playoff games played in-house.

I gotta say, however, I like that dream...