Bracketology Sunday

[A-19]

[Q]jtwcornell91 Wrote:

 This is gonna get a whole lot easier in about 8 hours...[/q]

john, why in 8 hours? the game left for sunday (ignoring the vt/dc game which is irrelevant to PWR for moving up) really don't impact the teams above us that much.

i also noticed that brown is hanging on to being a TUC by a thread. being as they are done for the season, what are the odds they drop from being a tuc? (due to opponent's winning % etc)

-mike

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Actually, Minnesota has two losses and a tie against UAA.  If UAA wins tonight, they probably stay a TUC, and that's a hit to Minny which could help us flip them.

[jtwcornell91]

[Q]A-19 Wrote:

 [Q2]jtwcornell91 Wrote:

 This is gonna get a whole lot easier in about 8 hours...[/Q]
john, why in 8 hours? the game left for sunday (ignoring the vt/dc game which is irrelevant to PWR for moving up) really don't impact the teams above us that much.
[/q]

Today's results will nail down the brackets for next weekend's conference tournaments, which is the prerequisite for a certain tool to appear on USCHO...

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I think there are plenty of overly certain tools on USCHO most of the time.  Why is 8 hours from now all that different?   ::rolleyes::

JH

[Ken \'70]

Just root like hell for BU and AA.  Huge games for Cornell's 1 seed chances.  Dartmouth/VT is meaningless.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I understand UAA, but why is BU so big, Ken?

[Ken \'70]

Cornell has 2 paths to a #1 seed:

1) Flip the MN comparison so we both end up with the same number of wins but we take the tie-breaker based on the H2H.

2) Don't flip MN, but pick up two other comparison wins so we're 1 ahead of them.  It's in this path that BU s so important.

If BU goes onto to the HE semis they play UNH.  If UNH beats BU it flips the COP between UNH and MN to UNH.  If UNH wins out (beats BC or ME in HE Final), and MN doesn't, that will also flip the UNH - MN RPI to UNH with UNH taking the comparison from MN.  MN now down 1.

If BU wins out this will also flip the MN - BU comparison to BU (if MN doesn't win out) .MN still down 1.

Either of these two scenarios has meant BC has lost.  If Cornell wins out, which it has  to have almost any realistic chance, then Cornell flips the BC comparison to its favor.  Cornell plus 1.

Cornell plus 1 + MN minus 1 = Cornell moves ahead of MN for a #1 seed.

[Scersk '97]

I said it in another thread http://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,58576, and Ken '70 backed it up, but there are two things that matter in the upcoming weeks regarding the PWR:

1)  MN loses the #1 seed.
2)  We stay a #2 or move up.

Or you could reduce that to one thing:

1) Avoid Mariucci.

If MN drops to a #2 seed, we avoid them whether we're a #1 seed or not.  (Please, let's not consider what it would take to drop us to a #3 or #4 seed.)  There are teams other than us, as Ken has detailed, that are within striking distance of making that happen.  If we end up as a #1 seed, which surely will only happen with an ECAC championship, then we're eating a helluva lot of "cake" with some nice "icing."

So, go UNH (ugh), go BU (on account of a personal connection, not too distasteful for me).  Down with Minnesota!

[Pocket Scersk \'03]

[Q]Scersk '97 Wrote:


1) Avoid Mariucci.

If MN drops to a #2 seed, we avoid them whether we're a #1 seed or not.  [/q]

Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN.

[Tub(a)]

Doesn't 1 seed as close to home as possible override competitive equity?

[Scersk '97]

[Q]Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:

Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/q]

Oh Bizarro, how you will lead the kiddies wrong!

[Q]Tub(a) Wrote:

 Doesn't 1 seed as close to home as possible override competitive equity?[/q]

Out of the mouths of babes...

[Pocket Scersk \'03]

[Q]Scersk '97 Wrote:

 [Q2]Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:

Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/Q]
Oh Bizarro, how you will lead the kiddies wrong!

[Q2]Tub(a) Wrote:

 Doesn't 1 seed as close to home as possible override competitive equity?[/Q]
Out of the mouths of babes...





Edited 1 times. Last edit at 03/13/05 09:26PM by Scersk '97.[/q]

Has that been tested though, Scott? If MN didn't have to play at home, it's be the Red and Gophers 1/2 in one of the eastern regionals. No argument there. But because MN can't move and because the committe has, "made a concerted effort in the two years the 16-team field has existed to maintain a strict bracket" (uscho's words) can you say that young Grant is in fact correct? I'd reason that the committee is so stuck on bracket integrity that they'd reward MN not only with home ice but also with the weakest 1 seed.

The 16 team field has only existed for two years. In both cases the one seeds were split east and west, but I don't think there was a situation where bracket integrity butted heads with the geographic placement of 1 seeds.

[Scersk '97]

You are right, of course, Chris.   There have been many threads discussing the as yet ill-defined behavior of the committee in a 16-team tournament.  We don't exactly know what they'd do.

Yet, as JTW has stated most forcefully elsewhere, the next directive after placing host schools is for the committee to place #1 seeds closest to home in order.  I think the likelihood of the committee shipping a #1 seed somewhere far from home to preserve competitive equity is low.  What exactly is the reward for a #1 seed in this situation?  Also the committee has to think about attendance.  Supposedly, attendance creates the rationale for the rules regarding host teams and #1 seeds, assuming that host schools' and #1 seeds' fans will show up.

If we're a #1 seed, the only way we'll be shipped out west will be if two other Eastern teams are #1 seeds.  At this point, that seems rather unlikely.

[ajec1]

[Q]Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:

 
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/q]

Wait, Cornell wearing white at Mariucci? Am I dreaming? That would be incredible (Even better if there were 10,000 fans in red!).

[Dart~Ben]

FWIW, here's how Dartmouth backs into the NCAA tourny.

Bucky losing to NoDak would be big. Michigan winning the CCHA tourny is likewise a near must. Cornell or Harvard must win the ECAC tourny. NMU is likely out of the picture. Less certain on whether tOSU must lose twice or if they can win once and still leave Dartmouth in the hunt.