Bracketology Sunday

[DeltaOne81]

I did also realize, guys, there's always the chance of trying to buck common wisdom. If Minny wins, they could definitely move up, if they beat DU, either in the title game or in the Consy, they would take that comparison on the strength of a 3-1 H2H record - and they would . That would move them up to 3rd. Perhaps we could follow them up to 4th and get the #1 seed, or else, even if we stay 5th we'd no longer matchup with Minny.

So Minn losing is good, Minn winning is fine too.  We seem to have a dozen scenarios in which we end up a #1, and there are several more, by us losing or Minn winning, where we'd at least not match up with Minn.

So here's the question, can people figure out a scenario in which we *stay* 4/5 with Minn (or, I suppose, maybe 3/6 or 2/7 or 1/8). In other words, would it be easier to decide what we *don't* want to happen?

[jkahn]

[Q]A-19 Wrote:

 i just ran through lots of possible combinations and came to the following conclusion:

no matter what happens elsewhere, if cornell wins the tourney we are a #1 seed EXCEPT in one case (denver wins the WCHA and minny wins the consolation vs CC)...
-mike[/q]
Has anyone run these scenarios assuming Colgate losing twice, which might cause Brown to lose TUC status, as they played Colgate four times?

[Tub(a)]

[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote:

 I did also realize, guys, there's always the chance of trying to buck common wisdom. If Minny wins, they could definitely move up, if they beat DU, either in the title game or in the Consy, they would take that comparison on the strength of a 3-1 H2H record - and they would . That would move them up to 3rd. Perhaps we could follow them up to 4th and get the #1 seed, or else, even if we stay 5th we'd no longer matchup with Minny.

So Minn losing is good, Minn winning is fine too.  We seem to have a dozen scenarios in which we end up a #1, and there are several more, by us losing or Minn winning, where we'd at least not match up with Minn.

So here's the question, can people figure out a scenario in which we *stay* 4/5 with Minn (or, I suppose, maybe 3/6 or 2/7 or 1/8). In other words, would it be easier to decide what we *don't* want to happen?[/q]

Here is an awful one (3,2,1 Bonus):

    * CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
    * CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
    * ECAC Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Cornell.
    * ECAC Championship game: Vermont defeats Colgate.
    * ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
    * Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
    * WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.

Which leads to (with lots of shuffling to avoid intra-conference matchups, BC gets screwed):

Amherst

BC
UNH
ND
Wisconsin

Grand Rapids

CC
Michigan
Vermont
Quinnipiac

Minnesota

Minnesota
Cornell
Maine
Ohio State

Worcester

Denver
Harvard
BU
Bemidji


I don't think I would be booking Columbus hotels with a regional like that  ::twitch::

[DeltaOne81]

So in that situation, Minn wins twice, they would probably move up to 3? So by us losing twice, including to Harvard, we only drop to 6? Plus, I have a hunch the loss to Harvard is key, to flip our comparison with them. The odds of Cornell/Harvard being the consolation game, well, its definitely possible, but that's a weird thought. Alright, so that's a little bit of a stretch, and wouldn't go along with us doing well. If we lose out in Albany, I guess we deserve our fate.

[Tub(a)]

[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote:

 So in that situation, Minn wins twice, they would probably move up to 3? So by us losing twice, including to Harvard, we only drop to 6? Plus, I have a hunch the loss to Harvard is key, to flip our comparison with them. The odds of Cornell/Harvard being the consolation game, well, its definitely possible, but that's a weird thought. Alright, so that's a little bit of a stretch, and wouldn't go along with us doing well. If we lose out in Albany, I guess we deserve our fate.[/q]

In that situation (Minnesota winning the WCHA):

If we lose twice and either Vermont or Colgate wins the title, we go to Minnesota. If we lose twice and Harvard wins the title, we go to Grand Rapids in CCs bracket.

If we lose the first game and win the consolation, we go to Minnesota.

If we win the first game and lose the championship, we go to Minnesota.

If we win the ECAC, Minnesota is 3rd, and we are 4th. We would probably be in Amherst with Denver, Maine (to avoid HE matchup), and Wisconsin.

Finally done editing I think, and I also think it's pretty clear that we are cheering AGAINST Minnesota under pretty much any circumstance.

[jkahn]

[Q]jkahn Wrote:

Has anyone run these scenarios assuming Colgate losing twice, which might cause Brown to lose TUC status, as they played Colgate four times?[/q]

Answering my own question, it looks like only one Colgate loss will drop Brown out of TUC.
So the above scenarios therefore do have Colgate out as a TUC.  Brown's non-TUC status results in part from the added effect of the Albany wins and losses of not only Colgate, but the other 3 semi-finalists, which bring down Brown's opponents' winning percentage.

[CrazyLarry]

The UVM-MichState Comparison, crucial in deciding whether UVM or the Badgers are last in in this scenario, seems to hinge on RPI, and thus the bonus, in this scenario.  So, not only do the games have to be right, the bonus does, too.  So, unlikely doesn't begin to describe it.

Still fun to think about.

[Ken \'70]

Actually not.  I've run a bunch of scenarios with MN winning out and as long as we win out we get a #1 seed.

In fact, MN winning out is one of the most forgiving assumptions about the WCHA results.

We should be rooting for MN to win out because even if we lose the ECAC championship game we stay east (as #5 against DU as #4) under most likely scenarios.

These include either MI or OSU as CCHA champs and UNH or BC as HE champs.

[Tub(a)]

[Q]Ken '70 Wrote:

 Actually not.  I've run a bunch of scenarios with MN winning out and as long as we win out we get a #1 seed.

In fact, MN winning out is one of the most forgiving assumptions about the WCHA results.

We should be rooting for MN to win out because even if we lose the ECAC championship game we stay east (as #5 against DU as #4) under most likely scenarios.

These include either MI or OSU as CCHA champs and UNH or BC as HE champs.

[/q]

Everything I ran (which was BC, MI, and MN winning their tournies) shows Minnesota moving up to 3 winning out and us at a tie for 5th (unless we win the ECACHL) that we lose, sending us to Minnesota. Do you have the results page from USCHO so we can see where we differ? Did you use something besides 3 2 1 bonuses?

[Ken \'70]

Here's an example.  In this case we're the #5 seed playing DU.  The key seems to be that MN wins out and beats DU in the process and that we lose to Colgate.  OSU over MI seems to yield slightly more good scenarios for us, but most MI winning are good too.

ME winning HE is slightly better than other options (we get a #1 seed even if we lose the ECAC final to Colgate in that case).

So I think we do have a big rooting interest in the late game Friday.  Playing Colgate Saturday gives us more eastern ice options (should we lose).

CCHA Play-in #2: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Championship game: Ohio State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.

[Ken \'70]

The real magic seems to be Maine winning out.  I can't find a scenario where we don't get a #1 seed if we win out when Maine does.  I'm sure I haven't tested them all, but Maine seems to be our insurance policy.

Here's a wierd one.  We get the #3 seed under this scenario whether we win or lose to Colgate in the Final.

CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.

[andyw2100]

Ken--

Are you going to Albany? If so, will you have net access, and will you be updating us as the weekend progresses? If so, it would be much appreciated.
                             Andy W.

[Ken \'70]

Andy, if you haven't already, run the Your are the Committee script at http://www.uscho.com/rankings/yatc.php.  It's fun and addicting.

I'll be commuting the couple hours each way from the Boston area to Albany on Fri and Sat.  By Sat. morning the probabilities as to where they'll end up, and why, might be narrowing down a lot.  No doubt I'll share my thoughts on that here.

[andyw2100]

[Q]Ken '70 Wrote:

I'll be commuting the couple hours each way from the Boston area to Albany on Fri and Sat.  By Sat. morning the probabilities as to where they'll end up, and why, might be narrowing down a lot.  No doubt I'll share my thoughts on that here.[/q]


That's great, Ken. Thanks!
                     Andy