Cornell RS Worst Case Scenario Finish

[Will]

Since I'm too lazy to do the math myself, can somebody tell me what the worst case scenario for Cornell is in the regular season, should they lose the last four games?  What's the lowest they could finish?  If they haven't already done so, what needs to be done to clinch a first-round bye?

[jtwcornell91]

Third place.  We have the tiebreakers with both UVM and Dartmouth wrapped up.  Colgate as well.

[Will]

Nice. Who could finish ahead of Cornell? Just Harvard and Colgate right?

[andyw2100]

[Q]Will Wrote:

 Nice. Who could finish ahead of Cornell? Just Harvard and Colgate right?[/q]


Right.

I'm not much of a math guy either. But a simple look at the standings, coupled with the above knowledge that we win the tie breakers with Dartmouth and Vermont makes the "math" pretty simple.

Standings:

1 Cornell 18   14-2-2     30
2 Colgate 18   12-4-2    26
3 Harvard 17   12-4-1    25
4 Dartmouth 18   11-7-0   22
5 Vermont 18   10-6-2   22
6 Brown 17   8-7-2   18
7 Clarkson 18   7-10-1   15
8 St. Lawrence 18  7-10-1   15
9 Union 18  7-11-0   14
10 Rensselaer 18   5-12-1   11
11 Princeton 18   4-13-1   9
12 Yale 18   3-14-1   7  

The first number after the team name is the number of ECACHL games played, followed by the record, and the number of points. Colgate could gain another 8 points, and Harvard another 10, since they have 5, not 4 games remaining. Dartmouth and Vermont could also gain 8 points, but since we win the tie-breakers with those two, only Harvard and Colgate could finish ahead of us.

Of course this is all kinda silly, since I'd say the chances that we don't gain another point over the next four games is damn close to zero.
                                       Andy

[DeltaOne81]

True, but I think the mathmatical and realistic answers are the same. Both ways we could end up third. Realistically we just don't even have to bother to consider Dmouth and UVM, because the chances of us losing out and them winning out is absolutely tiny.

We'd have to majorly stumble to be 3rd or 2nd, but its within the realm of this universe, at least.

But back to the mathematically foollishness... Dartmouth sucked it up against the top teams this year, huh? Cause we're only 6-2-2 against teams possible to make it into the top 4 (excluding Clarkson), and there's no way Dartmouth can beat any combination of that, even with a game against Harvard left? If you take out Brown, who probably also won't make the top 4, we're 4-2-2 (1-0-1 against Gate, 1-1 against Harvard, 1-1 against Dmouth, and 1-0-1 against UVM).

[Dart~Ben]

[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote:
But back to the mathematically foollishness... Dartmouth sucked it up against the top teams this year, huh?[/q]

I wouldn't say Dartmouth sucked it up against the top teams.

1-1 vs. you guys (2-1 W, 1-3 L)
1-1 vs. Gate (1-2 L, 6-3 W)
1-1 vs. UVM (2-1 including the non-conference game) (1-5 L, 5-2 W, [6-3 W])
0-1 vs. Harvard (1-2 L)
1-0 vs. Brown (3-1 W)

That's .500 hockey against the conference teams with winning records. Not outstanding, but not exactly sucking, either.

The Harvard loss was bad merely because of how it happened. The Gate loss happened back when Dartmouth was averaging something like 1.25 goals per game (how times have changed, the Green now lead the conference in offense).

What's killing Dartmouth is their annual loss to Mayotte and Union (1-0), and the choke job they pulled against Princeton at home when Jessiman got hurt (3-0). There's 4 points they had no business giving away.

[Josh '99]

[Q]Dart~Ben Wrote:
I wouldn't say Dartmouth sucked it up against the top teams.

0-1 vs. Harvard (1-2 L)[/q]Do us a favor and win that second game?  Please?  :-D

[Scersk '97]

Quoting yourself is something best done by someone else, but here we go, from the post-Yale thread:

[Q]Scersk '97 Wrote:

 And, because I'm an obsessive, I've been cranking away at the possibilities for the next few games, using estimates based on the current KRACH.  (Likely to win 9 of 10 with Clarkson, RPI, and Union and 4 of 5 with SLU.)

Just to avoid jinxing I'll say that it never goes according to the numbers and they have to play them on the ice and every game is difficult in the ECAC(HL) and yada yada.

Four wins  ~ 58%
3 Ws, 1 L  ~ 34%
2 Ws, 2 Ls ~ 7 %
1 W, 3 Ls  ~ 1 %
4 Ls       ~ negligible
[/Q]
As you can see, the likelihood of ending up anything but the #1 seed is rather low.  But just take a look at the SUNYAC (in which I take a perverse interest, given that the rivalry between Plattsburgh and Oswego seems to mirror that between Harvard and us in the last few years) for this last weekend.  It can happen:

http://www.uscho.com/standings/index.php?season=20042005&conf=15&type=d3

[KeithK]

[q]As you can see, the likelihood of ending up anything but the #1 seed is rather low. But ...[/q]1991.  Nuff said.

[Dpperk29]

pardon my ignorance... but what happened in 1991? I was 4 and not exactly worried about hockey yet.

[DeltaOne81]

[Q]Dpperk29 Wrote:

 pardon my ignorance... but what happened in 1991? I was 4 and not exactly worried about hockey yet.[/q]
Jesus. I was a kid in 91 myself, but 4... that makes even me feel old.  ::twitch::

That said, I have no idea what happened either

[nyc94]

[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote:

 [Q2]Dpperk29 Wrote:

 pardon my ignorance... but what happened in 1991? I was 4 and not exactly worried about hockey yet.[/Q]
Jesus. I was a kid in 91 myself, but 4... that makes even me feel old.  

That said, I have no idea what happened either [/q]

We needed one point on the final weekend to take the RS title.  We didn't get it.

[Trotsky]

[Q]KeithK Wrote:

 [Q2]As you can see, the likelihood of ending up anything but the #1 seed is rather low. But ...[/Q]
1991.  Nuff said.[/q]

ARGH!!! :-( :-( :-( :-( :-( :-(

That was effin' awful.  Just awful.

[Trotsky]

[Q]Dpperk29 Wrote:

 pardon my ignorance... but what happened in 1991? I was 4 and not exactly worried about hockey yet.[/q]

Yikes.  I was 28 in 1991.  Thanks for making my day.  :`(

[Beeeej]

For context:  This was back when there were only four conferences, each with two auto-bids to a twelve-team NCAA tourney - and the RS champ got one of the auto-bids.

Beeeej