PWR volatile, Cornell -> #8t

[DeltaOne81]

Must be a lot of close teams according to PWR. With all but 3 scores in (2 WCHA, 1 CHA), Cornell jumped from 13t -> 8 tonight with the win over Brown (22t after the loss).

Every game really will be very important, with one day making the difference between getting to the NCAA tournament "with some luck" vs. "a lock".

Note: UND is #9 and their score isn't in yet, and they won, so we very well may end up 9 or below by the end of the night, but my point is made . Also, #3 DU is down 2-0 after 2, and the CHA game involves, of course, no TUCs.


Edit: UND score comes through and Cornell and UND now tied for 8th. CHA score also in. DU looks ready to lose to Mich Tech, so we'll see if that shakes anything up.

[nyc94]

Now we need Brown to win a few to keep their RPI over .500 so we keep two wins over a TUC.

[jtwcornell91]

It apparently depends a lot on what values you use for the QW bonuses.

[DeltaOne81]

Using .0030, .0020, .0010, I get us down to 9th, which we really are now anyway.

Using .0050, .0030, .0010, I get us down to 11th (tie 10th).

Same thing with .0050, .0025, .0010.

Its probably in that range, right? I can't find a likely bonus situation that hurts us too much. Although it would if we were a few spots lower.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Maybe not.  

Before last night when we were in a three way tie with Lowell and Wisconsin, the 5,3,1 combo dropped Wisco below us, and kept us in the tie with Lowell.

Just keep winning and make it irrelevant.

[French Rage]

Tied w/ Colgate for 13th now, losing the tiebreaker via our RPI.

However, more of note is the conference breakdowns:
WCHA: 5
CCHA: 3
HEA: 4
ECAC: 4 (Harv, us, Colg, UVM)

Granted our top team is Harvard at #8, whereas the others have CC-Mich-BC in the top 3, but it's definitely a start and an improvement.

Since our schedule is mostly insular now except for the Harvard at the Beanpot and I think Brown/Providence, does anyone know if intra-ECAC matchups will hurt us (the conference as a whole) overall?  I would imagine so, since it would lower our opponent's RPI compared to OOC matchups, but it's hard to guess all the other factors that could take place...

[Greg Berge]

The insularity only hurts in that it drives down our RPI, which is just one point in the pairwise comparison.  Except for matchups with conference teams, the H2H is already established.  That leaves TUC and COP, and the unsurprising result that the better they do, the better they'll rank.

Having a preponderance of games against relatively weak TUCs helps both by (if everything goes well) raising the record against TUCs and helping out with quality win hocus pocus.  (If you get the same bonus for beating a .801 and a .501, then what the hey...)

[jtwcornell91]

Don't forget, you only get QW bonuses for interconference games.

[Greg Berge]

Aha.  In that case, it only helps with TUC, not the Double Secret Bonus.

[Avash]

At the conclusion of the conference tournaments in March, do the CHA and AHA winners become TUCs in the pairwise rankings prior to NCAA tournament selection?

(The reason I ask: Cornell beat Canisius, currently at the top of the AHA standings).

[Josh '99]

I believe so.

[Avash]

Brown (with 61 shots on goal tonight, including 27 in the first period) defeated American International 5-2, but by playing them, Brown's RPI dipped under .500, meaning that, for the time being, they are no longer a TUC. This dropped Cornell's PWR from 13th to 16th.

The PWR have not yet been updated (as of 10:00pm) to reflect Dartmouth's 9-8 (!) win over New Hampshire (in which UNH blew a 4 goal lead). Dartmouth is the third ECAC team (Yale, Vermont) to beat New Hampshire over the past 2 seasons.

[Steve M]

I didn't help us for now because Dartmouth became a TUC, an Cornell is 0-1 against them.  If we beat Dartmouth, though, that will even out and we will be helped in the long run by the ECAC's overall improved NC record.  Cornell's RPI is back above 0.55

[The Rancor]

gotta say that i'm more than a little worried about this team. they have all the talent in the world, but they seem to be pussyfooting around a lot this year. when they play with confidence and hit hard- they win. when they don't, well, you all have seen the results. this team, week in and out, has the respect of the pollsters and all opponents, but still hasn't proven that they are 'for real'. i cant help but feel like they blew it big time against Harvard, in what was one of our last chances to prove ourselves in the regular season as a true contender. We still have big weekends against Vermont and Dartmouth and Colgate, and it aint over till the playoffs are won, but it had better be an amazing run from here on out, or this team is sunk.
Statisticly, this is a great team. #2 Defence, #11 Offence (top ranked of ECEC teams nationaly) #3 PK, #7 PP, #1 combined special teams, #3 scoring margin and #39 in penalty mins (thats good).
all that means crap if we cant win against real tough teams, and so far we realy haven't (exceptions being maine and one against sucks)

heres to a great second half run. lets go red.

[Steve M]

I agree the team needs to turn it up a notch for the stretch drive.  Cornell needs to be firing right out of the gate instead of waiting to fall behind to turn it on.  

The 2-4-2 record against TUCs is what's hurting the Red in the PWR right now.  Here are a few things to be optimistic about though:

1.  Of the 8 games so far against TUCs, only one was at Lynah.  5 of the 8 remaining games against TUCs are at home.

2.  The composite record of the TUCs played so far are quite a bit better than the records of the TUCs we have left on the schedule.

3.  Brown can easily flip back to being a TUC, giving Cornell 2 more wins.


So far the Red have done a good job beating the teams they should.  In spite of all the TUCs left on the schedule, the only remaining game that I think we're an underdog is the one @Colgate.  If we run up a good record down the stretch, as we should be able to, an NCAA bid will follow without too much worrying.