Castagna and Walsh - The Worry Zone

[ugarte]

Not really going off my own opinion - going mostly off buzz from scouts and publicly available reporting. For example, the Athletic's NHL prospect analyst Scott Wheeler listed Stanley as a "tier 3 prospect" ranked as the 10th best prospect in the Senators' 26th ranked farm system. Here's what Wheeler wrote a couple weeks ago:...

appreciate this. but that makes it even more likely (imo) that if the Senators offer him the entry-level contract that Wheeler doesn't think he's quite earned, he takes it. You can finish your degree whenever but you're only 21 for a year.

fyi, i edited my post to add a response to something else while you were responding, in case you missed that.

[tretiak]

Yeah - Castagna got over $1 million a year for 3 years so chances are Calgary has him slotted into a middle 6 position at worst.  500k over 3 years is nice cheddar too and he can easily go back and finish his degree with $ in the bank.  So yeah he is just getting paid to walk away from a fourth year of Cornell hockey.
[/quote]
That assumes Castagna sticks in the NHL. If he ends up in the AHL, he makes a small fraction of that.
[/quote]

Pghas meant the total 3 year contract not a single year. At a minimum, they both average $190k a year for three years. That's $570k over the 3 years of the contract if they don't play in the NHL.

[tretiak]

Yes, we are certainly in agreement that Castagna leaving, on the one hand, and Bancroft/Stanley leaving, on the other hand, are two very different things. If just Castagna signs, we aren't having this discussion. It's the Stanley departure that's truly surprising and causing me to look back and reflect on the fact that this type of departure is mostly unprecedented in Cornell history.

In what way, shape or form is that "unprecedented"? In this thread alone, numerous examples have been pointed out of similar Cornell players leaving after their junior year.

I'd argue it's "mostly unprecedented" in the sense that he is only the third Cornell player drafted in the fourth round or higher to leave early in the last 30+ years, and because he does not project as an NHL player. He's the lowest drafted early departure among defensemen in the last 30+ years as well (and probably much longer, but I didn't look back that far).  It's been extremely rare for us to not retain this type of player.

depends who is doing the projecting! you keep substituting your judgment for the people involved. ottawa was interested enough to buy him out of his senior year with $500K+ over the next three years (between bonuses and minor league salary) regardless of whether he ever makes the NHL. He's only 21 and regarded as a solid defensive defenseman who is likely to grow into his frame. He doesn't project as an NHL star but I think they see him as someone who will get to skate on the good ice.

Not only do I think that it is unlikely that Stanley would turn down that offer, I further assume that Jones-the-mentor (as opposed to Jones-the-guy-who-wants-to-win) would advise him to take it.

Not really going off my own opinion - going mostly off buzz from scouts and publicly available reporting. For example, the Athletic's NHL prospect analyst Scott Wheeler listed Stanley as a "tier 3 prospect" ranked as the 10th best prospect in the Senators' 26th ranked farm system. Here's what Wheeler wrote a couple weeks ago:

10. Hoyt Stanley, RHD, 21, Cornell (No. 108, 2023)

Stanley was the best under-18 defenseman in the BCHL three seasons ago and earned a spot on the league's All-Rookie team after missing most of the prior season with a concussion. Then, as an 18-year-old freshman at Cornell, he looked like he belonged without standing out, which is kind of all you can hope for out of a player who has taken that path to playing college hockey (especially given his age at the time). He's now a junior, though, and his production hasn't taken a step despite expanded minutes — he averaged 20 per game last year and is up to 22 this year — and positive two-way results generally.

He's a long, mobile, pro-sized (6-3, 207 pounds) right-shot defenseman with impressive skating technique, enough ability to handle and maneuver with the puck on his stick, and a decent shot that I'd like to see him use more. He's still a little raw in some areas, but I expect him to blossom into a standout college defenseman as an upperclassman. He projects as an efficient, effective two-way D with some secondary puck-transporting elements, and I saw enough NHL potential to rank him No. 98 pre-draft (10 spots in front of where the Sens picked him) ahead of the draft. I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant an entry-level contract to this point, though, and while he's still young for a junior, the clock is now ticking.

every draft prospect guy fucking sucks at evaluation lmao, from my experience. a BUNCH of them mostly just go "points good".

anyway if they want Stanley as an upside bottom four minute muncher with a sneaky shot, I mean, that's what he is rn.

Tom Fitzgerald (thanks for catching that BL) goes "BIG good" and he's a (worthless) GM.

[BearLover]

Yes, we are certainly in agreement that Castagna leaving, on the one hand, and Bancroft/Stanley leaving, on the other hand, are two very different things. If just Castagna signs, we aren't having this discussion. It's the Stanley departure that's truly surprising and causing me to look back and reflect on the fact that this type of departure is mostly unprecedented in Cornell history.

In what way, shape or form is that "unprecedented"? In this thread alone, numerous examples have been pointed out of similar Cornell players leaving after their junior year.

I'd argue it's "mostly unprecedented" in the sense that he is only the third Cornell player drafted in the fourth round or higher to leave early in the last 30+ years, and because he does not project as an NHL player. He's the lowest drafted early departure among defensemen in the last 30+ years as well (and probably much longer, but I didn't look back that far).  It's been extremely rare for us to not retain this type of player.

depends who is doing the projecting! you keep substituting your judgment for the people involved. ottawa was interested enough to buy him out of his senior year with $500K+ over the next three years (between bonuses and minor league salary) regardless of whether he ever makes the NHL. He's only 21 and regarded as a solid defensive defenseman who is likely to grow into his frame. He doesn't project as an NHL star but I think they see him as someone who will get to skate on the good ice.

Not only do I think that it is unlikely that Stanley would turn down that offer, I further assume that Jones-the-mentor (as opposed to Jones-the-guy-who-wants-to-win) would advise him to take it.

Not really going off my own opinion - going mostly off buzz from scouts and publicly available reporting. For example, the Athletic's NHL prospect analyst Scott Wheeler listed Stanley as a "tier 3 prospect" ranked as the 10th best prospect in the Senators' 26th ranked farm system. Here's what Wheeler wrote a couple weeks ago:

10. Hoyt Stanley, RHD, 21, Cornell (No. 108, 2023)

Stanley was the best under-18 defenseman in the BCHL three seasons ago and earned a spot on the league's All-Rookie team after missing most of the prior season with a concussion. Then, as an 18-year-old freshman at Cornell, he looked like he belonged without standing out, which is kind of all you can hope for out of a player who has taken that path to playing college hockey (especially given his age at the time). He's now a junior, though, and his production hasn't taken a step despite expanded minutes — he averaged 20 per game last year and is up to 22 this year — and positive two-way results generally.

He's a long, mobile, pro-sized (6-3, 207 pounds) right-shot defenseman with impressive skating technique, enough ability to handle and maneuver with the puck on his stick, and a decent shot that I'd like to see him use more. He's still a little raw in some areas, but I expect him to blossom into a standout college defenseman as an upperclassman. He projects as an efficient, effective two-way D with some secondary puck-transporting elements, and I saw enough NHL potential to rank him No. 98 pre-draft (10 spots in front of where the Sens picked him) ahead of the draft. I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant an entry-level contract to this point, though, and while he's still young for a junior, the clock is now ticking.

every draft prospect guy fucking sucks at evaluation lmao, from my experience. a BUNCH of them mostly just go "points good".

anyway if they want Stanley as an upside bottom four minute muncher with a sneaky shot, I mean, that's what he is rn.

Ray Shero goes "BIG good" and he's a (worthless) GM.

Ray Shero passed away last year, so I would say your post is in bad taste.

[ugarte]

Pghas meant the total 3 year contract not a single year. At a minimum, they both average $190k a year for three years. That's $570k over the 3 years of the contract if they don't play in the NHL.

depends whicih part of the pghas post you mean. he mentioned both $1MM/yr (same as Stanley, based on NHL rostering) and the $570K bonus/AHL guarantees. BL was responding to the first part.

[ugarte]

Ray Shero passed away last year, so I would say your post is in bad taste.

come on man

[tretiak]

Ray Shero passed away last year, so I would say your post is in bad taste.

Got the wrong GM. Corrected.

[stereax]

Yes, we are certainly in agreement that Castagna leaving, on the one hand, and Bancroft/Stanley leaving, on the other hand, are two very different things. If just Castagna signs, we aren't having this discussion. It's the Stanley departure that's truly surprising and causing me to look back and reflect on the fact that this type of departure is mostly unprecedented in Cornell history.

In what way, shape or form is that "unprecedented"? In this thread alone, numerous examples have been pointed out of similar Cornell players leaving after their junior year.

I'd argue it's "mostly unprecedented" in the sense that he is only the third Cornell player drafted in the fourth round or higher to leave early in the last 30+ years, and because he does not project as an NHL player. He's the lowest drafted early departure among defensemen in the last 30+ years as well (and probably much longer, but I didn't look back that far).  It's been extremely rare for us to not retain this type of player.

depends who is doing the projecting! you keep substituting your judgment for the people involved. ottawa was interested enough to buy him out of his senior year with $500K+ over the next three years (between bonuses and minor league salary) regardless of whether he ever makes the NHL. He's only 21 and regarded as a solid defensive defenseman who is likely to grow into his frame. He doesn't project as an NHL star but I think they see him as someone who will get to skate on the good ice.

Not only do I think that it is unlikely that Stanley would turn down that offer, I further assume that Jones-the-mentor (as opposed to Jones-the-guy-who-wants-to-win) would advise him to take it.

Not really going off my own opinion - going mostly off buzz from scouts and publicly available reporting. For example, the Athletic's NHL prospect analyst Scott Wheeler listed Stanley as a "tier 3 prospect" ranked as the 10th best prospect in the Senators' 26th ranked farm system. Here's what Wheeler wrote a couple weeks ago:

10. Hoyt Stanley, RHD, 21, Cornell (No. 108, 2023)

Stanley was the best under-18 defenseman in the BCHL three seasons ago and earned a spot on the league's All-Rookie team after missing most of the prior season with a concussion. Then, as an 18-year-old freshman at Cornell, he looked like he belonged without standing out, which is kind of all you can hope for out of a player who has taken that path to playing college hockey (especially given his age at the time). He's now a junior, though, and his production hasn't taken a step despite expanded minutes — he averaged 20 per game last year and is up to 22 this year — and positive two-way results generally.

He's a long, mobile, pro-sized (6-3, 207 pounds) right-shot defenseman with impressive skating technique, enough ability to handle and maneuver with the puck on his stick, and a decent shot that I'd like to see him use more. He's still a little raw in some areas, but I expect him to blossom into a standout college defenseman as an upperclassman. He projects as an efficient, effective two-way D with some secondary puck-transporting elements, and I saw enough NHL potential to rank him No. 98 pre-draft (10 spots in front of where the Sens picked him) ahead of the draft. I'm not sure he has done enough to warrant an entry-level contract to this point, though, and while he's still young for a junior, the clock is now ticking.

every draft prospect guy fucking sucks at evaluation lmao, from my experience. a BUNCH of them mostly just go "points good".

anyway if they want Stanley as an upside bottom four minute muncher with a sneaky shot, I mean, that's what he is rn.

Tom Fitzgerald (thanks for catching that BL) goes "BIG good" and he's a (worthless) GM.

Absolutely fucking worthless. We could've had fucking Buium or Dickenson but noooo Silayev big.

Fml. I need to stop letting the Devils ruin my life.

[stereax]

hey anyone want some half finished poetry i wrote in my head caught in a thunderstorm in cortland waiting for the bus, or are we just gonna talk in circles about debate 101 all day?

I vote for the poem.

ask and you shall receive

still VERY much a work in progress lol and not even done but. the first line came to me trudging through a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and trying to flag down a Centro Cortland lmao

[Trotsky]

beings of pure rationality

Just say "Swedes."

[upprdeck]

the max contract two way deal is 850k-950 with 10% bonus.  Its not like there is much difference.  The big deal is that he signed a 3 yr deal so the team can spread it out for 3 yrs to sweeten the pot.

[Snowball]

hey anyone want some half finished poetry i wrote in my head caught in a thunderstorm in cortland waiting for the bus, or are we just gonna talk in circles about debate 101 all day?

I vote for the poem.

ask and you shall receive

still VERY much a work in progress lol and not even done but. the first line came to me trudging through a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and trying to flag down a Centro Cortland lmao

Promising, but I feel like Jesus is more of a Rosé kind of guy.

[stereax]

hey anyone want some half finished poetry i wrote in my head caught in a thunderstorm in cortland waiting for the bus, or are we just gonna talk in circles about debate 101 all day?

I vote for the poem.

ask and you shall receive

still VERY much a work in progress lol and not even done but. the first line came to me trudging through a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and trying to flag down a Centro Cortland lmao

Promising, but I feel like Jesus is more of a Rosé kind of guy.

Vodka carries better imagery here - high alcohol content, easier to get drunk off, especially drinking from the bottle. Plus, it complements the image of a specifically bodega Jesus, getting shitfaced in the back of a store off cheap liquor that's dubiously even his and making passes at people. Wine would be more classical - rebirth, water into wine, miracles. Miracles are mundane now. This Jesus isn't a good person, he's an entitled dick like the rest of us lol. So he drinks vodka to get wasted and forget that he died for the world to turn into this.

[BearLover]

I looked at every draft pick of the Schafer era and noted their draft year, draft round, and whether they left early. I also indicated whether they had a strong junior season (i.e. there would have been strong desire for their drafting team to sign them after their junior year).

PLAYER, DRAFT YEAR, DRAFT ROUND, LEFT EARLY? STRONG JUNIOR YEAR?

• Jean-Marc Pelletier, 1997, 2nd round, left after 2 seasons, N/A [didn't get much playing time]
• Matt Underhill, 1999, 6th round, did not leave early, Yes (.928 sv%)
• Stephen Baby, 1999, 7th round, did not leave early, Yes (point per game)
• Douglas Murray, 1999, 8th round, did not leave early, Yes (11 goals and point per game as a defenseman)
• Brian Mcmeekin, 1999, 9th round, did not leave early, No
• Matt Mcrae, 2000, 5th round, did not leave early, No
• Mark Mcrae, 2000, 9th round, did not leave early, Yes (point per game as a defenseman)
• Mike Knoepfli, 2001, 9th round, did not leave early, Yes (24 points in 32 games as strong defensive forward)
• David LeNeveu, 2002, 2nd round, left after 2 seasons, N/A [.950 sv% year before he left]
• Dan Glover, 2002, 8th round, did not leave early, No
• Ryan O'Byrne, 2003, 3rd round, left after 3 seasons, Yes (7-6-13 as a defenseman, good at defending)
• Shane Hynes, 2003, 3rd round, left after 3 seasons, Yes (point per game)
• Byron Bitz, 2003, 4th round, did not leave early, Yes (almost a point per game and great defensive forward)
• Mark McCutcheon, 2003, 5th round, did not leave early, No
• Matt Moulson, 2003, 9th round, did not leave early, YES (dominant numbers, 22 goals)
• Ray Sawada, 2004, 2nd round, did not leave early, No (21 points in 32 games)
• John Gleed, 2004, 7th round, did not leave early, No
• Mitch Carefoot, 2005, 8th round, did not leave early, No
• Sasha Pokuluk, 2005, 1st round, left after 2 seasons, N/A [half a point per game as a big D]
• Colin Greening, 7th round, did not leave early, Yes (point per game)
• Tony Romano, 2006, 6th round, went to CHL after one season, N/A [had a good freshman year numbers-wise]
• Justin Krueger, 2006, 7th round, did not leave early, No
• Riley Nash, 2007, 1st round, left after three years, N/A [great college player][a 1st rounder staying 3 years I consider equivalent to a later round pick staying 4 years]
• Braden Birch, 2008, round 6, did not leave early, No
• Sean Collins, 2008, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Nick D'Agostino, 2008, round 7, did not leave early, Yes (8 goals, 20 points as a defenseman)
• Kirill Gotovets, 2009, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Brian Ferlin, 2011, round 4, left after 3 seasons, Yes (point per game)
• Joel Lowry, 2011, round 5, did not leave early, Yes (24 points in 32 games; also had a very good sophomore year)
• Reece Willcox, 2012, round 5, did not leave early, No
• John McCarron, 2012, round 6, did not leave early, Yes (24 points in 32 games)
• Joakim Ryan, 2012, round 7, did not leave early, Yes (8 goals, 24 points as a defenseman)
• Matt Buckles, 2013, round 4, did not leave early, No
• Beau Starrett, 2014, round 3, did not leave early, No
• Anthony Angello, 2014, round 5, left after 3 seasons, Yes (13-13-26 in 33 games)
• Jared Fiegl, 2014, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Dwyer Tschantz, 2014, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Misha Song, 2015, round 6, did not leave early, No
• Matt Cairns, 2016, round 4, did not leave early, No
• Morgan Barron, 2017, round 6, UNKNOWN, Yes (point per game) [Barron was forced to sign due to COVID.]
• Alex Green, 2018, round 4, did not leave early, Yes (7-9-16 in 29 games as a defenseman, defensive defenseman of the year) [Note: Green did sign during the canceled 2021 season, but confirmed on the Big Red Hockeycast that he would have returned for his senior year if not for COVID wiping out the season]
• Matthew Stienburg, 2019, round 3, did not leave early, Yes (point per game)
• Jack Malone, 2019, round 6, did not leave early, No
• Justin Ertel, 2021, round 3, left for CHL after one season, N/A
• Hank Kempf, 2021, round 7, did not leave early, No

I marked in bold the early departures.
I marked in red the players who had strong junior seasons.
I crossed out players who left early for another league besides the pros, or who we cannot say would have gone pro due to COVID knocking out the season.

Analysis:
Cornell had 46 draft picks under Schafer.
I have chosen to exclude Riley Nash from this analysis because I don't think it would be fair to categorize him as either an early departure or a four-year player. He obviously wasn't a four-year player, but keeping a first round pick three years is way better than a program would typically hope for.
Out of 42 draft picks excluding R. Nash and those crossed out, 7 left early. (16.67%)
Out of 18 players who had strong junior seasons, 4 left before their senior year. (22%) Adding LeNeveu to that total (given he had an incredible sophomore season), 5/19 left. (26%)

Conclusions:
Under Schafer, Cornell did an incredible job retaining drafted players through their senior seasons. 16.67% early departures among drafted players is very low. Even more impressive, Cornell retained a huge majority of players who had strong sophomore/junior seasons. In many of these cases, the drafted players ended up signing with their drafting teams anyway. See, e.g., Murray, Moulson, Ryan, Greening, Stienburg, Bitz. And in each of these cases, the player got NHL time. This indicates that in many cases, a player staying four years was not due to their team not wanting them but rather a result of that player desiring to return to Cornell.

It is no surprise that the last three Ivies to make the Frozen Four - Cornell in '03, Yale in '13, and Harvard in '17 - were loaded with seniors who could have gone pro after their junior seasons but chose to return to college.

Unfortunately, this postseason we've already seen two juniors jump to the pros. This includes Hoyt Stanley, who seems like a longshot to have any kind of NHL career. This is an unfortunate development and very atypical in Cornell Hockey history. Going forward, if Cornell wants to compete with more talented programs, it will be critical that our best players stick it out for four years, as they mostly did for the past 30 seasons.

Correction: Pelletier left for the QMJHL, not pro hockey. That means only 6/42 draft picks under Schafer left early.

[BearLover]

Yes, we are certainly in agreement that Castagna leaving, on the one hand, and Bancroft/Stanley leaving, on the other hand, are two very different things. If just Castagna signs, we aren't having this discussion. It's the Stanley departure that's truly surprising and causing me to look back and reflect on the fact that this type of departure is mostly unprecedented in Cornell history.

As to the hypothetical about the #1 pick - Cornell (also Quinnipiac) is totally noncompetitive for such a player and does not even attempt to recruit him.

Exactly.  And so the question becomes, does going down that path over the next few years make sense and if so, should they?  OR should they take advantage of the transfer portal, where someone who is both talented but disgruntled (perhaps about being displaced by said hypothetical #1 pick) would welcome the opportunity (and be duly loyal) to come to Cornell and be a part of building something, and would that something be able to finish the job?

We need to be realistic about our limitations. We cannot go down the path of getting the McKennas, nor can we go down the path of bringing in a bunch of high-end transfers. These players do not want to play at an Ivy League school in the ECAC that does not offer scholarships. Any changes in philosophy will take place on the margins.

As far as how Cornell grows as a program, I'm not really sure at this point. The model has been to recruit very good, though not blue-chip, players who value an education, and develop them for four years. Stanley leaving is bearish. There's some BL catastrophizing going on here, but I really do think that if guys are leaving Cornell for a career in the AHL, then we're in trouble. Looking around the country, it's quite common for teams to retain a player of this caliber. We'd have been a top team in the country this season if we had Robertson and Bancroft back, and we'd be a top team next year if we had Castagna, Stanley, Walsh, and Fegaras back. If we want a legit chance at the Frozen Four, we need to get most of these players to stay. Beyond that, what else can we do? Casey is already recruiting the best player he can. The quality of talent coming in is pretty good. I suppose NIL is one path forward--we can't do real NIL, but some Penn basketball-style thing where we set players up with fancy internships sounds plausible and I understand Casey has already been looking into something like that.

The recruits in the pipeline look alright. But there is going to be a clear step down from the stacked 2023 recruiting class (Castagna, Walsh, Stanley, Fegaras, Robertson, Devlin, Kraft, Catalano).