Castagna and Walsh - The Worry Zone

[stereax]

hey anyone want some half finished poetry i wrote in my head caught in a thunderstorm in cortland waiting for the bus, or are we just gonna talk in circles about debate 101 all day?

I vote for the poem.

ask and you shall receive

still VERY much a work in progress lol and not even done but. the first line came to me trudging through a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and trying to flag down a Centro Cortland lmao

[Trotsky]

beings of pure rationality

Just say "Swedes."

[upprdeck]

the max contract two way deal is 850k-950 with 10% bonus.  Its not like there is much difference.  The big deal is that he signed a 3 yr deal so the team can spread it out for 3 yrs to sweeten the pot.

[Snowball]

hey anyone want some half finished poetry i wrote in my head caught in a thunderstorm in cortland waiting for the bus, or are we just gonna talk in circles about debate 101 all day?

I vote for the poem.

ask and you shall receive

still VERY much a work in progress lol and not even done but. the first line came to me trudging through a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and trying to flag down a Centro Cortland lmao

Promising, but I feel like Jesus is more of a Rosé kind of guy.

[stereax]

hey anyone want some half finished poetry i wrote in my head caught in a thunderstorm in cortland waiting for the bus, or are we just gonna talk in circles about debate 101 all day?

I vote for the poem.

ask and you shall receive

still VERY much a work in progress lol and not even done but. the first line came to me trudging through a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and trying to flag down a Centro Cortland lmao

Promising, but I feel like Jesus is more of a Rosé kind of guy.

Vodka carries better imagery here - high alcohol content, easier to get drunk off, especially drinking from the bottle. Plus, it complements the image of a specifically bodega Jesus, getting shitfaced in the back of a store off cheap liquor that's dubiously even his and making passes at people. Wine would be more classical - rebirth, water into wine, miracles. Miracles are mundane now. This Jesus isn't a good person, he's an entitled dick like the rest of us lol. So he drinks vodka to get wasted and forget that he died for the world to turn into this.

[BearLover]

I looked at every draft pick of the Schafer era and noted their draft year, draft round, and whether they left early. I also indicated whether they had a strong junior season (i.e. there would have been strong desire for their drafting team to sign them after their junior year).

PLAYER, DRAFT YEAR, DRAFT ROUND, LEFT EARLY? STRONG JUNIOR YEAR?

• Jean-Marc Pelletier, 1997, 2nd round, left after 2 seasons, N/A [didn't get much playing time]
• Matt Underhill, 1999, 6th round, did not leave early, Yes (.928 sv%)
• Stephen Baby, 1999, 7th round, did not leave early, Yes (point per game)
• Douglas Murray, 1999, 8th round, did not leave early, Yes (11 goals and point per game as a defenseman)
• Brian Mcmeekin, 1999, 9th round, did not leave early, No
• Matt Mcrae, 2000, 5th round, did not leave early, No
• Mark Mcrae, 2000, 9th round, did not leave early, Yes (point per game as a defenseman)
• Mike Knoepfli, 2001, 9th round, did not leave early, Yes (24 points in 32 games as strong defensive forward)
• David LeNeveu, 2002, 2nd round, left after 2 seasons, N/A [.950 sv% year before he left]
• Dan Glover, 2002, 8th round, did not leave early, No
• Ryan O'Byrne, 2003, 3rd round, left after 3 seasons, Yes (7-6-13 as a defenseman, good at defending)
• Shane Hynes, 2003, 3rd round, left after 3 seasons, Yes (point per game)
• Byron Bitz, 2003, 4th round, did not leave early, Yes (almost a point per game and great defensive forward)
• Mark McCutcheon, 2003, 5th round, did not leave early, No
• Matt Moulson, 2003, 9th round, did not leave early, YES (dominant numbers, 22 goals)
• Ray Sawada, 2004, 2nd round, did not leave early, No (21 points in 32 games)
• John Gleed, 2004, 7th round, did not leave early, No
• Mitch Carefoot, 2005, 8th round, did not leave early, No
• Sasha Pokuluk, 2005, 1st round, left after 2 seasons, N/A [half a point per game as a big D]
• Colin Greening, 7th round, did not leave early, Yes (point per game)
• Tony Romano, 2006, 6th round, went to CHL after one season, N/A [had a good freshman year numbers-wise]
• Justin Krueger, 2006, 7th round, did not leave early, No
• Riley Nash, 2007, 1st round, left after three years, N/A [great college player][a 1st rounder staying 3 years I consider equivalent to a later round pick staying 4 years]
• Braden Birch, 2008, round 6, did not leave early, No
• Sean Collins, 2008, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Nick D'Agostino, 2008, round 7, did not leave early, Yes (8 goals, 20 points as a defenseman)
• Kirill Gotovets, 2009, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Brian Ferlin, 2011, round 4, left after 3 seasons, Yes (point per game)
• Joel Lowry, 2011, round 5, did not leave early, Yes (24 points in 32 games; also had a very good sophomore year)
• Reece Willcox, 2012, round 5, did not leave early, No
• John McCarron, 2012, round 6, did not leave early, Yes (24 points in 32 games)
• Joakim Ryan, 2012, round 7, did not leave early, Yes (8 goals, 24 points as a defenseman)
• Matt Buckles, 2013, round 4, did not leave early, No
• Beau Starrett, 2014, round 3, did not leave early, No
• Anthony Angello, 2014, round 5, left after 3 seasons, Yes (13-13-26 in 33 games)
• Jared Fiegl, 2014, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Dwyer Tschantz, 2014, round 7, did not leave early, No
• Misha Song, 2015, round 6, did not leave early, No
• Matt Cairns, 2016, round 4, did not leave early, No
• Morgan Barron, 2017, round 6, UNKNOWN, Yes (point per game) [Barron was forced to sign due to COVID.]
• Alex Green, 2018, round 4, did not leave early, Yes (7-9-16 in 29 games as a defenseman, defensive defenseman of the year) [Note: Green did sign during the canceled 2021 season, but confirmed on the Big Red Hockeycast that he would have returned for his senior year if not for COVID wiping out the season]
• Matthew Stienburg, 2019, round 3, did not leave early, Yes (point per game)
• Jack Malone, 2019, round 6, did not leave early, No
• Justin Ertel, 2021, round 3, left for CHL after one season, N/A
• Hank Kempf, 2021, round 7, did not leave early, No

I marked in bold the early departures.
I marked in red the players who had strong junior seasons.
I crossed out players who left early for another league besides the pros, or who we cannot say would have gone pro due to COVID knocking out the season.

Analysis:
Cornell had 46 draft picks under Schafer.
I have chosen to exclude Riley Nash from this analysis because I don't think it would be fair to categorize him as either an early departure or a four-year player. He obviously wasn't a four-year player, but keeping a first round pick three years is way better than a program would typically hope for.
Out of 42 draft picks excluding R. Nash and those crossed out, 7 left early. (16.67%)
Out of 18 players who had strong junior seasons, 4 left before their senior year. (22%) Adding LeNeveu to that total (given he had an incredible sophomore season), 5/19 left. (26%)

Conclusions:
Under Schafer, Cornell did an incredible job retaining drafted players through their senior seasons. 16.67% early departures among drafted players is very low. Even more impressive, Cornell retained a huge majority of players who had strong sophomore/junior seasons. In many of these cases, the drafted players ended up signing with their drafting teams anyway. See, e.g., Murray, Moulson, Ryan, Greening, Stienburg, Bitz. And in each of these cases, the player got NHL time. This indicates that in many cases, a player staying four years was not due to their team not wanting them but rather a result of that player desiring to return to Cornell.

It is no surprise that the last three Ivies to make the Frozen Four - Cornell in '03, Yale in '13, and Harvard in '17 - were loaded with seniors who could have gone pro after their junior seasons but chose to return to college.

Unfortunately, this postseason we've already seen two juniors jump to the pros. This includes Hoyt Stanley, who seems like a longshot to have any kind of NHL career. This is an unfortunate development and very atypical in Cornell Hockey history. Going forward, if Cornell wants to compete with more talented programs, it will be critical that our best players stick it out for four years, as they mostly did for the past 30 seasons.

Correction: Pelletier left for the QMJHL, not pro hockey. That means only 6/42 draft picks under Schafer left early.

[BearLover]

Yes, we are certainly in agreement that Castagna leaving, on the one hand, and Bancroft/Stanley leaving, on the other hand, are two very different things. If just Castagna signs, we aren't having this discussion. It's the Stanley departure that's truly surprising and causing me to look back and reflect on the fact that this type of departure is mostly unprecedented in Cornell history.

As to the hypothetical about the #1 pick - Cornell (also Quinnipiac) is totally noncompetitive for such a player and does not even attempt to recruit him.

Exactly.  And so the question becomes, does going down that path over the next few years make sense and if so, should they?  OR should they take advantage of the transfer portal, where someone who is both talented but disgruntled (perhaps about being displaced by said hypothetical #1 pick) would welcome the opportunity (and be duly loyal) to come to Cornell and be a part of building something, and would that something be able to finish the job?

We need to be realistic about our limitations. We cannot go down the path of getting the McKennas, nor can we go down the path of bringing in a bunch of high-end transfers. These players do not want to play at an Ivy League school in the ECAC that does not offer scholarships. Any changes in philosophy will take place on the margins.

As far as how Cornell grows as a program, I'm not really sure at this point. The model has been to recruit very good, though not blue-chip, players who value an education, and develop them for four years. Stanley leaving is bearish. There's some BL catastrophizing going on here, but I really do think that if guys are leaving Cornell for a career in the AHL, then we're in trouble. Looking around the country, it's quite common for teams to retain a player of this caliber. We'd have been a top team in the country this season if we had Robertson and Bancroft back, and we'd be a top team next year if we had Castagna, Stanley, Walsh, and Fegaras back. If we want a legit chance at the Frozen Four, we need to get most of these players to stay. Beyond that, what else can we do? Casey is already recruiting the best player he can. The quality of talent coming in is pretty good. I suppose NIL is one path forward--we can't do real NIL, but some Penn basketball-style thing where we set players up with fancy internships sounds plausible and I understand Casey has already been looking into something like that.

The recruits in the pipeline look alright. But there is going to be a clear step down from the stacked 2023 recruiting class (Castagna, Walsh, Stanley, Fegaras, Robertson, Devlin, Kraft, Catalano).

[BearLover]

Hmm. I thought I posted this but apparently did not.

I don't think this is true at all. The higher draft pick is a higher investment...

Sounds like sunk cost fallacy. NHL teams are smart enough reevaluate and update their beliefs based on how guys perform, without leaning much at all on draft round. If we were discussing first rounders I'd agree with you, but once you're into the middle rounds that all goes out the window...

First, the sunk cost fallacy describes how people behave, not how economic models and beings of pure rationality are supposed to behave.

Second, the same attributes that make you a projectible high-round pick are probably still there 2-3 years later. Morgan Barron, for example, definitely outperformed his draft position and expectations (including at training camps) and nudged the Rangers towards yanking him out of school (regardless of COVID imo). If you take someone in a late round you're mostly only pulling them early if they develop on their own. If you take someone earlier you probably want to mold the clay.

Right, I'm saying that you're ascribing sunk cost fallacy to NHL GMs, but I think they're smarter than that. I also think you're overstating the difference between a mid- and late-round draft pick. We're not talking about Macklin Celebrini here. Yes, draft round is a signal of how highly an NHL team values a player. It's not nothing. But I don't believe the Flames would view/treat Castagna any differently if he were drafted in the 6th round, or Walsh any differently if he were drafted in the 3rd round.

[scoop85]

I suspect that given the accelerated movement across junior and college hockey that is impacting everyone, in the next few years that in attempt to stay nationally competitive and counteract early departures, we'll see Cornell taking in more transfers (see, i.e., Ashton and Fisher) and late recruits (see, i.e., Cornyoyer). But in the long run (and this is not profound wisdom), unless Cornell adopts some form of NIL program, likely along the lines of the Penn basketball paid internship model, it will be increasingly challenging for Cornell and the other Ivies to remain top tier D1 hockey programs.

[Pghas]

Yes, we are certainly in agreement that Castagna leaving, on the one hand, and Bancroft/Stanley leaving, on the other hand, are two very different things. If just Castagna signs, we aren't having this discussion. It's the Stanley departure that's truly surprising and causing me to look back and reflect on the fact that this type of departure is mostly unprecedented in Cornell history.

As to the hypothetical about the #1 pick - Cornell (also Quinnipiac) is totally noncompetitive for such a player and does not even attempt to recruit him.

Exactly.  And so the question becomes, does going down that path over the next few years make sense and if so, should they?  OR should they take advantage of the transfer portal, where someone who is both talented but disgruntled (perhaps about being displaced by said hypothetical #1 pick) would welcome the opportunity (and be duly loyal) to come to Cornell and be a part of building something, and would that something be able to finish the job?

We need to be realistic about our limitations. We cannot go down the path of getting the McKennas, nor can we go down the path of bringing in a bunch of high-end transfers. These players do not want to play at an Ivy League school in the ECAC that does not offer scholarships. Any changes in philosophy will take place on the margins.

As far as how Cornell grows as a program, I'm not really sure at this point. The model has been to recruit very good, though not blue-chip, players who value an education, and develop them for four years. Stanley leaving is bearish. There's some BL catastrophizing going on here, but I really do think that if guys are leaving Cornell for a career in the AHL, then we're in trouble. Looking around the country, it's quite common for teams to retain a player of this caliber. We'd have been a top team in the country this season if we had Robertson and Bancroft back, and we'd be a top team next year if we had Castagna, Stanley, Walsh, and Fegaras back. If we want a legit chance at the Frozen Four, we need to get most of these players to stay. Beyond that, what else can we do? Casey is already recruiting the best player he can. The quality of talent coming in is pretty good. I suppose NIL is one path forward--we can't do real NIL, but some Penn basketball-style thing where we set players up with fancy internships sounds plausible and I understand Casey has already been looking into something like that.

The recruits in the pipeline look alright. But there is going to be a clear step down from the stacked 2023 recruiting class (Castagna, Walsh, Stanley, Fegaras, Robertson, Devlin, Kraft, Catalano).

Yeah I hear you.  I dont think Stanley leaving is a catastrophe, I just look more at the results the last few years - which are certainly great ones - and can see that we could use a bit more high end elite skill to get up those last few steps.  That said, it may work out that the players we develop and have a few years of experience at this level will ultimately trump the programs that are relying on one-year lottery picks.  we will see.  Also having two sons who are Cornellians I know a bit about majors and the process  - I will say that the hardest undergraduate program to get admitted to at Cornell is the Dyson business program, and at least a few of the hockey players are actually in that program, which is a pretty big recruiting pull and also suggests what those guys' intentions may be (Walsh and Fegaras are both in that program, although they may have transferred into it) in terms of NOT only thinking about hockey. Irrespective of that, Cornell is so well-represented and networked in finance that hockey players coming out of here have fantastic opportunities and I am sure they play that up.  I wonder if they take advantage of Cayuga lake in the warmer months for recruiting purposes.

[ugarte]

Right, I'm saying that you're ascribing sunk cost fallacy to NHL GMs, but I think they're smarter than that. I also think you're overstating the difference between a mid- and late-round draft pick. We're not talking about Macklin Celebrini here. Yes, draft round is a signal of how highly an NHL team values a player. It's not nothing. But I don't believe the Flames would view/treat Castagna any differently if he were drafted in the 6th round, or Walsh any differently if he were drafted in the 3rd round.

First, I don't think they are much smarter than that. Very sophisticated systems chase sunk costs all the time. But second (and more importantly imo) I am also saying that draft position matters because the non-production aspects are baked into the earlier evaluation and remain a significant factor in how they see the players years later.

[stereax]

the one thing I'll say is if you ever hear a player referred to as a "former first-round pick" you know they suuuuck.

[adamw]

Not really sure what it would take to convince BL that the player movement, and departure, is so accelerated nowadays, that any comparison to even 5-10 years ago is meaningless - but - for the sake of everyone else ...

Today, Western Michigan lost two undrafted players and their fourth-round goaltender - all to early signings. Two of those were sophomores. This is so commonplace now, it's a yawn. I really don't have time to do deep dive on actual numbers right now - because it's not easy to do from a simple database search.

You know another way I know this? I used to write a little news blurb for every player that departed early, probably up until as recently as 4-5 years ago. Now, there are so many, and they happen so fast, I don't even bother.

[BearLover]

Not really sure what it would take to convince BL that the player movement, and departure, is so accelerated nowadays, that any comparison to even 5-10 years ago is meaningless - but - for the sake of everyone else ...

Today, Western Michigan lost two undrafted players and their fourth-round goaltender - all to early signings. Two of those were sophomores. This is so commonplace now, it's a yawn. I really don't have time to do deep dive on actual numbers right now - because it's not easy to do from a simple database search.

You know another way I know this? I used to write a little news blurb for every player that departed early, probably up until as recently as 4-5 years ago. Now, there are so many, and they happen so fast, I don't even bother.

I get that it's commonplace, and I understand that it's becoming more commonplace. But the fact it's happening on a wide basis doesn't itself explain why e.g. Hoyt Stanley would make that decision--his individual calculus isn't any different than it would have been 5-10 years ago when we'd retain that type of player. These are highly personal decisions. Jackson LaCombe (high second round pick, now an NHL star) stayed at Minnesota all four years, after all.

I'm looking at it like this, basically: the last four years our season was ended by BU and Denver. How are we going to beat these teams and get to the Frozen Four? Well, we certainly can't out-recruit them. But we can out-retain them and beat them with experience. But if Cornell players are leaving early just like theirs--well, then we really have no chance at all.

[Al DeFlorio]

Good grief!  Stanley realized a life-long dream to sign a pro contract.  That's all the calculus he needed.

"Your reach should exceed your grasp, or what's a heaven for."  Enough with the repetitive deep analysis  He's taking a shot at the prize. Good luck to him.