Castagna and Walsh - The Worry Zone

[stereax]

Starting the topic for these two, now that the season is over, and the sword of Damocles that's been hanging for what feels like months now.

As per Eric Francis:

The Flames have sent two front office people to Colorado to talk to Jonathan Castagna about signing with the Flames as early as today. Cornell was eliminated from the NCAA playoffs yesterday, opening the door for the centre acquired in the Weegar trade to join the Flames.

[stereax]

Jane says:

News on Jonathan Castagna. Would not at all be surprised if he signed. Team left this morning, so by presumption, he's still there.

Flames play in Colorado on Monday.

[fastforward]

I guess that's good news/bad news
Good for him
Bad for us

Regardless, it's well deserved and I wish him all the best

[stereax]

Random thought I just had: if the Bruins are so worried about breaking up chemistry right now that they're having Hagens on an ATO with Providence (and trying to force him to wing?), is that perhaps a good omen for Walsh returning for his senior year?

[underskill]

Both will sign. It is what it is unless NIL changes it up but you have to plan on 3 year contention windows now.

[fastforward]

So who's gonna be waiting for the guys to return to see if Casty is with them when they get back???

[stereax]

So who's gonna be waiting for the guys to return to see if Casty is with them when they get back???

It sounds like, between Francis and McNally, Casty is still in Colorado... though I am imagining a world where Flames agents show up in Loveland and try to find a Casty who's already halfway back to Ithaca 😂

[stereax]

Friedman is reporting that Castagna's probably signing. I got my friend watching the video, she said the quote was that there's "optimism" he's gonna sign in "the next few days".

For context for those who don't know NHL insiders, Friedge is the #1 insider and is almost always on the money. So... :')

[marty]

So who's gonna be waiting for the guys to return to see if Casty is with them when they get back???

It sounds like, between Francis and McNally, Casty is still in Colorado... though I am imagining a world where Flames agents show up in Loveland and try to find a Casty who's already halfway back to Ithaca 😂

I heard he isn't flying with the team. He decided to take the bus to honor one of his fans.

[stereax]

So who's gonna be waiting for the guys to return to see if Casty is with them when they get back???

It sounds like, between Francis and McNally, Casty is still in Colorado... though I am imagining a world where Flames agents show up in Loveland and try to find a Casty who's already halfway back to Ithaca 😂

I heard he isn't flying with the team. He decided to take the bus to honor one of his fans.

Good one...

[Bluelightning]

     I never played hockey so I'm not an expert. When Bancroft left Cornell as a junior to go pro, I was kind of surprised. The kid was a sniper and had a hard shot, but was he well rounded enough to turn pro and have legit chance? He seems to be getting more playing time with his new team so maybe this is breakthrough he needed?
     To me, Walsh and Castagna bring much more. Both are better defensively, better on face offs, quicker, etc. I think with Walsh wearing the "C" it made him a little too unselfish at times this season. He's very talented and I think there were a few times he could have "taken over" more than he did.
     Anyway, in my head: "if Bancroft went pro, then surely Walsh and Castagna will go". Would be interested in hearing thoughts from people with more
Knowledge about this.

[Pghas]

I never played hockey so I'm not an expert. When Bancroft left Cornell as a junior to go pro, I was kind of surprised. The kid was a sniper and had a hard shot, but was he well rounded enough to turn pro and have legit chance? He seems to be getting more playing time with his new team so maybe this is breakthrough he needed?
     To me, Walsh and Castagna bring much more. Both are better defensively, better on face offs, quicker, etc. I think with Walsh wearing the "C" it made him a little too unselfish at times this season. He's very talented and I think there were a few times he could have "taken over" more than he did.
     Anyway, in my head: "if Bancroft went pro, then surely Walsh and Castagna will go". Would be interested in hearing thoughts from people with more
Knowledge about this.

I won't say i have more knowledge - Bancroft either didn't play much for Providence or struggled this year.  I think Calgary presents an opportunity for Castagna, he will be one of a slew of young players trying to establish themselves and will have the opportunity to do that.  As we discussed Boston isn't even giving Hagens an nhl contract yet so it looks like Walsh's path with that team is more complicated.  For both of them it's not clear how much more growth they can experience as players through another year of ECAC hockey.  Would say that especially about Castagna.  Would think those factors are the biggest ones for these kids.

[BearLover]

I would caution against anyone assuming anything is a done deal until it's literally a done deal. There are many considerations at play.

Considerations include:

• NHL readiness
• Age
• Organizational pathway (number of players at your position ahead of you)
• Need for money
• Desire to finish degree and graduate with classmates
• Love for Cornell
• Ability to develop further in ECAC versus pros

abmarks directed 15 personal insults at me just for saying this, but I think it's  undeniable that players must weigh different factors and make a difficult decision based on incomplete information. Many players are faced this this decision every year. Some go pro, some return to college. In the case of Bancroft, Castagna, and Walsh, these factors differ among them and none of us can say with any certainty how the final calculus shakes out.

All I can say is that our hopes next year ride heavily on at least one, and hopefully both, of Castagna and Walsh returning.

[stereax]

I never played hockey so I'm not an expert. When Bancroft left Cornell as a junior to go pro, I was kind of surprised. The kid was a sniper and had a hard shot, but was he well rounded enough to turn pro and have legit chance? He seems to be getting more playing time with his new team so maybe this is breakthrough he needed?
    To me, Walsh and Castagna bring much more. Both are better defensively, better on face offs, quicker, etc. I think with Walsh wearing the "C" it made him a little too unselfish at times this season. He's very talented and I think there were a few times he could have "taken over" more than he did.
    Anyway, in my head: "if Bancroft went pro, then surely Walsh and Castagna will go". Would be interested in hearing thoughts from people with more
Knowledge about this.

I won't say i have more knowledge - Bancroft either didn't play much for Providence or struggled this year.  I think Calgary presents an opportunity for Castagna, he will be one of a slew of young players trying to establish themselves and will have the opportunity to do that.  As we discussed Boston isn't even giving Hagens an nhl contract yet so it looks like Walsh's path with that team is more complicated.  For both of them it's not clear how much more growth they can experience as players through another year of ECAC hockey.  Would say that especially about Castagna.  Would think those factors are the biggest ones for these kids.

I definitely mentioned this before on the forums, but with Bancroft the main issue is he wasn't drafted. So when you have legit NHL attention like that it's pretty difficult to say no. Obviously, that doesn't mean being drafted changes everything, but generally when you're drafted, you have a couple of years of conversations with agents, with the team and stuff, and you have more of an idea of where you stand. When you're undrafted and a team comes knocking with an ELC, you really want to sign it because you don't know what's going to happen next year.

Especially with Castagna, I really don't know what a 4th year of NCAA hockey could give him at this point - 65% on the dot, over PPG, etcetera. Doesn't feel like he has much to prove (besides trying to win a national championship, but 63/64 teams a year don't do that). You also kind of have to factor in that if, for example, Casty drops off a cliff next year, it changes the discussions with the team as well.

I also discussed this a couple of weeks ago, but the center depth on the Flames is really, really bad. Like - they probably have the worst centers in the NHL. I think it's Backlund, Frost, Strome, Gross right now? Which is disgusting and not in a good way - Backy is probably a 2C at best, ditto Frost, Strome fell off a cliff, and Gross just signed like a week ago. So there's a ton of opportunity for Castagna to step right into a 3C or 2C role, at least until the end of the year, and then they'll reevaluate.

Notably, since Castagna is a Canadian citizen and the Flames are a Canadian team, he doesn't have to have an entire visa process the way Sacha Boisvert did. That being said, since he would be under contract and thus no longer be a student (he can still take classes of course and finish his current schedule - and I would be surprised if he wasn't back in Ithaca in May to finish his finals), he would still definitely need to have his visa changed to accommodate that. So it might take a couple of days for that to go through - so we might not see him on Monday vs Colorado, but they'll probably fold him into the Flames team at that time.

On Walsh - again, they don't even want to sign Hagens to a professional contract yet, and they're trying to make him a winger for whatever reason? So if the choice is AHL to end the year or finishing up school with the guys in Ithaca, Walsh is probably going to choose the latter because that gives him flexibility for next year. At that point, in the summer, he can just say "I'm going to do next year with the Big Red if you don't give me an ELC" and see where that leads him with the Bruins organization. He seems to be very fond of the Bruins and I do think he's probably going to sign there eventually (especially if they keep him at center, which is a position of weakness right now within the org), but he can always leverage that senior year and play hardball with the org. Because again, once you graduate, you have those 30 days and you can then sign with any team you want. So if the prospects within the Bruins organization don't look too good, Walsh can always do what it sounded like Casty might have done had he not been traded, which is, ultimately, draft dodge and sign with someone else as a college free agent. (Think Jimmy Vesey here.) I mean very notably, since last year, you have Minten and Hagens who have joined the organization - one is currently the top line center and the other probably should be the second line center. Plus, Elias Lindholm is with the organization until 2031, barring a trade. If you look at 27-28, which realistically is probably when you'd expect Walsh to be a full-timer if he signs today, that's three centers already locked in, plus that high Leafs draft pick that might net the Bruins a fourth high-upside center.

I'll also mention that part of the reason Hagens signed now, as opposed to waiting it out until the summer - as I suspect Walsh will - is because both sides wanted him to get professional games in, with the possibility/likelihood of still signing that ELC in a week or two to burn the year. The thing is that if you sign the ELC now, you can't actually be sent down to the AHL. So if they sign Walsh to an ELC now, they have to keep him on the NHL roster until the end of the year. For a guy like Castagna, who the Flames already want in the NHL, that's not a problem. For a guy like Walsh, who the Bruins almost certainly don't want in the NHL this year, that's a problem. You saw guys last year, like Quinn Hutson, sign the ELC and only play a couple of games, being healthy scratched for the rest of them - in those cases, however, the benefit of having the player signed to the ELC (namely, team control for the next few years) was critical. (This Hutson was undrafted and likely could have window shopped for another team that would give him the ELC, given the amount of interest in him.)

My thing is, I'm always a little bit of the opinion that more years in college will help you improve. Not just because I want to see our guys go for 4 years, but college is a distinctly different experience than NHL/AHL professional hockey. When you're in the professional leagues, you have a lot less time to learn the game, train, hit the weight room, etcetera - you're constantly on the move and don't have very much free time to yourself. There are definitely reasons someone may prefer the college experience - even emotionally, not wanting to leave the team after that kind of loss to Denver.

In any case, we'll see what happens. I think I've convinced myself that if Walsh signs (and I can't say for sure that he will), it's going to be over the summer, due to everything I've outlined above.

[fastforward]

I never played hockey so I'm not an expert. When Bancroft left Cornell as a junior to go pro, I was kind of surprised. The kid was a sniper and had a hard shot, but was he well rounded enough to turn pro and have legit chance? He seems to be getting more playing time with his new team so maybe this is breakthrough he needed?
    To me, Walsh and Castagna bring much more. Both are better defensively, better on face offs, quicker, etc. I think with Walsh wearing the "C" it made him a little too unselfish at times this season. He's very talented and I think there were a few times he could have "taken over" more than he did.
    Anyway, in my head: "if Bancroft went pro, then surely Walsh and Castagna will go". Would be interested in hearing thoughts from people with more
Knowledge about this.

I won't say i have more knowledge - Bancroft either didn't play much for Providence or struggled this year.  I think Calgary presents an opportunity for Castagna, he will be one of a slew of young players trying to establish themselves and will have the opportunity to do that.  As we discussed Boston isn't even giving Hagens an nhl contract yet so it looks like Walsh's path with that team is more complicated.  For both of them it's not clear how much more growth they can experience as players through another year of ECAC hockey.  Would say that especially about Castagna.  Would think those factors are the biggest ones for these kids.

I definitely mentioned this before on the forums, but with Bancroft the main issue is he wasn't drafted. So when you have legit NHL attention like that it's pretty difficult to say no. Obviously, that doesn't mean being drafted changes everything, but generally when you're drafted, you have a couple of years of conversations with agents, with the team and stuff, and you have more of an idea of where you stand. When you're undrafted and a team comes knocking with an ELC, you really want to sign it because you don't know what's going to happen next year.

Especially with Castagna, I really don't know what a 4th year of NCAA hockey could give him at this point - 65% on the dot, over PPG, etcetera. Doesn't feel like he has much to prove (besides trying to win a national championship, but 63/64 teams a year don't do that). You also kind of have to factor in that if, for example, Casty drops off a cliff next year, it changes the discussions with the team as well.

I also discussed this a couple of weeks ago, but the center depth on the Flames is really, really bad. Like - they probably have the worst centers in the NHL. I think it's Backlund, Frost, Strome, Gross right now? Which is disgusting and not in a good way - Backy is probably a 2C at best, ditto Frost, Strome fell off a cliff, and Gross just signed like a week ago. So there's a ton of opportunity for Castagna to step right into a 3C or 2C role, at least until the end of the year, and then they'll reevaluate.

Notably, since Castagna is a Canadian citizen and the Flames are a Canadian team, he doesn't have to have an entire visa process the way Sacha Boisvert did. That being said, since he would be under contract and thus no longer be a student (he can still take classes of course and finish his current schedule - and I would be surprised if he wasn't back in Ithaca in May to finish his finals), he would still definitely need to have his visa changed to accommodate that. So it might take a couple of days for that to go through - so we might not see him on Monday vs Colorado, but they'll probably fold him into the Flames team at that time.

On Walsh - again, they don't even want to sign Hagens to a professional contract yet, and they're trying to make him a winger for whatever reason? So if the choice is AHL to end the year or finishing up school with the guys in Ithaca, Walsh is probably going to choose the latter because that gives him flexibility for next year. At that point, in the summer, he can just say "I'm going to do next year with the Big Red if you don't give me an ELC" and see where that leads him with the Bruins organization. He seems to be very fond of the Bruins and I do think he's probably going to sign there eventually (especially if they keep him at center, which is a position of weakness right now within the org), but he can always leverage that senior year and play hardball with the org. Because again, once you graduate, you have those 30 days and you can then sign with any team you want. So if the prospects within the Bruins organization don't look too good, Walsh can always do what it sounded like Casty might have done had he not been traded, which is, ultimately, draft dodge and sign with someone else as a college free agent. (Think Jimmy Vesey here.) I mean very notably, since last year, you have Minten and Hagens who have joined the organization - one is currently the top line center and the other probably should be the second line center. Plus, Elias Lindholm is with the organization until 2031, barring a trade. If you look at 27-28, which realistically is probably when you'd expect Walsh to be a full-timer if he signs today, that's three centers already locked in, plus that high Leafs draft pick that might net the Bruins a fourth high-upside center.

I'll also mention that part of the reason Hagens signed now, as opposed to waiting it out until the summer - as I suspect Walsh will - is because both sides wanted him to get professional games in, with the possibility/likelihood of still signing that ELC in a week or two to burn the year. The thing is that if you sign the ELC now, you can't actually be sent down to the AHL. So if they sign Walsh to an ELC now, they have to keep him on the NHL roster until the end of the year. For a guy like Castagna, who the Flames already want in the NHL, that's not a problem. For a guy like Walsh, who the Bruins almost certainly don't want in the NHL this year, that's a problem. You saw guys last year, like Quinn Hutson, sign the ELC and only play a couple of games, being healthy scratched for the rest of them - in those cases, however, the benefit of having the player signed to the ELC (namely, team control for the next few years) was critical. (This Hutson was undrafted and likely could have window shopped for another team that would give him the ELC, given the amount of interest in him.)

My thing is, I'm always a little bit of the opinion that more years in college will help you improve. Not just because I want to see our guys go for 4 years, but college is a distinctly different experience than NHL/AHL professional hockey. When you're in the professional leagues, you have a lot less time to learn the game, train, hit the weight room, etcetera - you're constantly on the move and don't have very much free time to yourself. There are definitely reasons someone may prefer the college experience - even emotionally, not wanting to leave the team after that kind of loss to Denver.

In any case, we'll see what happens. I think I've convinced myself that if Walsh signs (and I can't say for sure that he will), it's going to be over the summer, due to everything I've outlined above.

Great take on things, as usual!
Thanks for laying things out!