Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs

[Trotsky]

Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week.  I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

[BearLover]

Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week.  I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn't a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.

[Robb]

Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week.  I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn't a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.

He's being self-serving and disingenuous.  He's one of just a handful of coaches who could have a reasonable expectation of finishing in the top 8 more often than not.

He can say that there's no disadvantage, but the numbers show that he is dead wrong.  There is so much persistent, pervasive home ice advantage that the NCAA baked a correction for it into the RPI formula.

He's just rationalizing something that will help him more often than it will hurt him.  Don't pay attention to his arguments, pay attention to his incentives.

[upprdeck]

Its baked into the formula for sure.. but is it really a thing?  

Why do pro sports teams get an advantage of home field?  What does NCAA hockey do it for the most part until  the get to the final 16?

Is it a huge advantage for just a small one?

What is cornells advantage at home vs away this year for example?

Better teams teams probably do better home & away & neutral?

[Trotsky]

Don't pay attention to his arguments, pay attention to his incentives.

That's here someplace.

Just because I have an incentive for a law against murder doesn't mean any argument I make about murder is worthless.

Edit: 18. The Argument from Motives

(also Questioning Motives): The fallacy of declaring a standpoint or argument invalid solely because of the evil, corrupt or questionable motives of the one making the claim. E.g., "Bin Laden wanted us to withdraw from Afghanistan, so we have to keep up the fight!" Even evil people with the most corrupt motives sometimes say the truth (and even good people with the highest and purest motives are often wrong or mistaken). A variety of the Ad Hominem argument. The opposite side of this fallacy is falsely justifying or excusing evil or vicious actions because of the perpetrator's aparent purity of motives or lack of malice. (E.g., "Sure, she may have beaten her children bloody now and again but she was a highly educated, ambitious professional woman at the end of her rope, deprived of adult conversation and stuck between four walls for years on end with a bunch of screaming, fighting brats, doing the best she could with what little she had. How can you stand there and accuse her of child abuse?" ) See also Moral Licensing.

I find Carle's arguments convincing, and I stand to potentially lose by them since Cornell spends a lot of time at 9-16.

I will point out however that I may have crass motives since we would potentially have had home seed through both rounds in 2003, 2005, 2018, and 2020.  Who's up for 4 Frozen Fours?


Home rounds by year: (a 0 is a first round away game)

Home rounds / Actual Advances

Code Select Expand


1996 0 0
1997 0 1, home better
2002 0 1, neutral better
2003 2 2
2005 1 1
2006 1 1
2009 0 1, neutral better
2010 1 0, home better
2012 0 1, neutral better
2017 0 0
2018 2 0, home WAY better
2019 0 1, neutral better
2020 2 URGE TO KILL RISING
2023 0 1, neutral better



Neutral seed better, 5 times to 3.

So I have pure motives and I say bring the boys back home.

[Trotsky]

I'm curious, is Schafer on the record?  If he has a strong lean then fine I'm with him.

[pfibiger]

I'm curious, is Schafer on the record?  If he has a strong lean then fine I'm with him.

Literally one page back when you and Adam were sniping at each other he said:

" At least 75% of current head coaches want neutral sites - and the No. 1 advocate for that is Cornell's."

I'm not sure if that counts as on the record — but with Adam's role I'm sure they've discussed it. And  given Schafer's feelings about "fairness" re home and home, this seems on brand.

[Trotsky]

Reading is among my skills diminishing with age.

[The Rancor]

Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

[marty]

Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

Why would the Ivy League change their idiotic restriction on games played? We can dream.

[Trotsky]

If we don't have that brand discriminator parents might actually start comparing without regard to the label.

That would be bad.

[Dafatone]

Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

I mean we've been trying. We played a lot of good teams this year out of conference. Hard to blame us for perennial contender UMD being suddenly meh two years in a row.

[Trotsky]

The killer is the conference.  These things are cyclical. Last year there were 4 ECAC NC$$ bids.

[upprdeck]

So if players play less games does that mean they get a pay cut to play in the Ivys now?

[Weder]

I just noticed that the baseball team's schedule is bumping up to 53 games this season (they played 35 last year). The NCAA limit is 56. Ivy basketball plays up to the NCAA limit too. Is there any logic to which sports are allowed to essentially play the max and which ones aren't?