Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs

[upprdeck]

No real reason why the ivies punish the sports teams in multiple sports.

Fball/Hockey/lax play less and start later?

Why does basketball play a pretty normal schedule?

They also limit practice time during the week, which hurts as well.

[Trotsky]

I just noticed that the baseball team's schedule is bumping up to 53 games this season (they played 35 last year)

Are you sure we don't have 20 rainouts a year?

[BearLover]

Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

This logic doesn't make sense though. The entire point of RPI is to compare two teams who play different schedules. RPI is a function of SOS and win%. The better our opponents, the better our SOS but the lower our win%. If RPI accurately measures how good a team is, then team X in Hockey East and team Y in the CCHA should be on equal footing.

I get the point about playing more games/starting the season earlier, but does this actually impact RPI over the course of a season? It's leaves our RPI based on a smaller sample of games, but that shouldn't hurt us all else being equal. It probably disadvantages us the first weekend of the season against a team that already has games under its belt, but on the other hand, Cornell has the benefit of focusing its preparation on that singular team for weeks, and Cornell can go into its opening weekend without injuries. Basically what I'm saying is that the silly Ivy League restrictions on our schedule shouldn't impact our RPI much if at all.

[upprdeck]

I guess the question would be where would a team be ranked with a great record in a bad league with a bad OC schedule. Does it capture who the best team is or who has played the best schedule and done mostly well.

Say we had 7 more games against just avg teams and went 4-2 to 6-0.  would our RPI be higher. Given the data you could compute it by creating a generic schedule. Say we played Canisus or Niagara 4 times..  

And ask the coaches if playing 3-4-5-6 more games would help the team develop as well?

Winning more games good, losing more games bad.  

Cornell has had decent records but also on the bottom the PWR needing some help a ton.
this yr we might have a 4-5 loss season and not get in. would more games have hurt the good teams probably not.. might it have helped the avg teams who knows

all close to not getting or so
20-10
18-10


solidly in

25-5
23-2
21-8
20-10

not in
16-11

[adamw]

Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week.  I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Your transparent attempts at buttering me up now will not work

[adamw]

Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week.  I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn't a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.

As I pointed out in my follow up article today ...

https://collegehockeynews.com/news/2024/02/09_Between-the-Lines-NCAA-Regional.php

this is not entirely true ... Men's basketball is the only other sport that plays its ENTIRE tournament neutral - but many other sports have many rounds where it's neutral. Just to be clear.

As for the 29 games for Ivies -- one of the dumbest things in the world going on right now. What's the rationale? That it takes away too much from school? Well - why then can Ivies play 2 consecutive weekends of exhibition games? What in god's name is the difference if those two weekends were spent playing non-league games?

[Trotsky]

Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week.  I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Your transparent attempts at buttering me up now will not work

Sure they will.

[BearLover]

Cornell down to 15 in the Pairwise.
But—we are now within striking distance of the four teams directly ahead of us. (CC is now within striking distance of us, though.)

[upprdeck]

looking ahead. Prov and mass have multiple games vs Maine/BC/BU.. hope for the best there.

St cloud/WMU play each other twice.

Mich has one more with MSU and 2 with Minn. Every little loss helps

Conn outshot Umaass tonight but couldnt pull that game out.  Hope for the split tomorrow.

[BearLover]

looking ahead. Prov and mass have multiple games vs Maine/BC/BU.. hope for the best there.

St cloud/WMU play each other twice.

Mich has one more with MSU and 2 with Minn. Every little loss helps

Conn outshot Umaass tonight but couldnt pull that game out.  Hope for the split tomorrow.

That UConn result stings.

[Trotsky]

St. Cloud leads us 1-0strictly on RPI. In record vs common opponents we are both 1.000, since we are both 2-0 vs UMD.

St. Cloud is at UMD the final weekend of the RS.  

If they get anything less than a sweep, we take common opponents.  I guess it comes  down to RPI, but if we were to tie in RPI...

[Trotsky]

Teams ahead of us in PWR that we are beating in record vs common opponents right now:

Code Select Expand


 2. North Dakota
 7. Denver
 8. Minnesota
 9. Quinnipiac
10. Western Michigan
11. UMass
12. Providence


[BearLover]

Teams ahead of us in PWR that we are beating in record vs common opponents right now:

Code Select Expand


 2. North Dakota
 7. Denver
 8. Minnesota
 9. Quinnipiac
10. Western Michigan
11. UMass
12. Providence


Basically, we are 2-0 vs NCHC and 1-0-1 vs HE.

[Dafatone]

Common opponent plain doesn't matter unless we also beat them head to head or we wind up tying in RPI, which almost never happens.

[Beeeej]

Arizona State's win pushes us back up into 14th... by 0.0001.