Polls 2019-20

[JasonN95]

Minnesota State hosts AK-Anchorage for two games this upcoming weekend so not likely to give an opening to another team to slip into first in the next poll.

[BearLover]

Signs that Harvard and Cornell will regress: the Crimson's shooting percentage (18.2%) is first in the country, and the Big Red's (15.8%) is second. Meanwhile, Harvard's save percentage (96.2%) is far and away number one in the nation. Cornell's (92.6%) is tied for tenth, though that is in line with Galajda's and Cornell's historical save percentages, and so may not regress much if at all.

I don't feel like looking this up for Harvard, but Cornell is absolutely dominating even strength shot attempts thus far. Even vs Clarkson they had a substantial advantage. IIRC the only game where Cornell didn't have a clear edge was game 1 vs MSU (basically even). That shooting percentage probably is unsustainable, but at least it's backed up by measurable signs of possession dominance.

One thing I've always wondered is how much team shooting percentage is a function of luck in college hockey. The talent differentials are much larger in D-I than in the NHL. It's possible Cornell's shooting % is huge in part because the teams they've been playing haven't been very good, so the shooters have had better looks and a lot more time.

I agree that the shot differential so far indicates that Cornell is a very good team. The Red have taken 56% of shot attempts at even strength and 57% of unblocked shot attempts at even strength. Those numbers increase when the game is within a goal. Harvard's metrics, on the other hand, are strikingly awful! Despite having played weak opposition, they are dead last in the country in shot attempt%: 40% at even strength (41% unblocked shot attempts). Those numbers do increase substantially when the game is within a goal: 48% for both shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts. This suggests that Harvard runs up big leads and then takes its foot off the gas, which confounds the numbers. Yet their even strength numbers are literally worst in the country, and their close-game numbers are below average. Very small sample size, but it suggests Harvard may be worse than its record.

Or, if you take the view that shooting percentage is heavily correlated with talent, Harvard's sky-high shooting% might just be indicative of its roster stacked with draft picks and its weak opposition.

[French Rage]

Cornell men have not had 13+ first place votes in November since at least 1996.

Huh, I didn't remember the #1 ranking in 2005.

[Trotsky]

Cornell men have not had 13+ first place votes in November since at least 1996.

Huh, I didn't remember the #1 ranking in 2005.

Maybe because it was in the NIT poll?

[Jim Hyla]

Code Select Expand



[b]USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine College Hockey Poll
Women's Poll (2019-20 Season, Week #9 - Nov. 19)[/b]

Rank    School                (First)     Last Week Record  Weeks in Top 10
1. University of Minnesota, (19) 190   1   12-1-1 9
2. University of Wisconsin,      171 2   12-1-1 9
[b][u]3. Cornell University,           146 3    7-0-1 9[/u][/b]
4. Northeastern University,      132 4   10-1-0 9
[b][u]5. Clarkson University,          110 5   10-1-3 9[/u][/b]
6. Boston College,                95 6   10-1-1 9
7. Ohio State University,         77 7    8-3-3 9
[b][u]8. Princeton University,          55 8    7-2-0 9
9. Harvard University,            34      10    5-0-0 2[/u][/b]
10. University of Minnesota Duluth,12 9    7-4-1 7

Others Receiving Votes: Boston University, 5; [b][u]Colgate University, 1[/u][/b];
Mercyhurst University, 1; Robert Morris University, 1.


[Tom Lento]

Signs that Harvard and Cornell will regress: the Crimson's shooting percentage (18.2%) is first in the country, and the Big Red's (15.8%) is second. Meanwhile, Harvard's save percentage (96.2%) is far and away number one in the nation. Cornell's (92.6%) is tied for tenth, though that is in line with Galajda's and Cornell's historical save percentages, and so may not regress much if at all.

I don't feel like looking this up for Harvard, but Cornell is absolutely dominating even strength shot attempts thus far. Even vs Clarkson they had a substantial advantage. IIRC the only game where Cornell didn't have a clear edge was game 1 vs MSU (basically even). That shooting percentage probably is unsustainable, but at least it's backed up by measurable signs of possession dominance.

One thing I've always wondered is how much team shooting percentage is a function of luck in college hockey. The talent differentials are much larger in D-I than in the NHL. It's possible Cornell's shooting % is huge in part because the teams they've been playing haven't been very good, so the shooters have had better looks and a lot more time.

I agree that the shot differential so far indicates that Cornell is a very good team. The Red have taken 56% of shot attempts at even strength and 57% of unblocked shot attempts at even strength. Those numbers increase when the game is within a goal. Harvard's metrics, on the other hand, are strikingly awful! Despite having played weak opposition, they are dead last in the country in shot attempt%: 40% at even strength (41% unblocked shot attempts). Those numbers do increase substantially when the game is within a goal: 48% for both shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts. This suggests that Harvard runs up big leads and then takes its foot off the gas, which confounds the numbers. Yet their even strength numbers are literally worst in the country, and their close-game numbers are below average. Very small sample size, but it suggests Harvard may be worse than its record.

Or, if you take the view that shooting percentage is heavily correlated with talent, Harvard's sky-high shooting% might just be indicative of its roster stacked with draft picks and its weak opposition.

Well, given all of this, I take the view that Cornell's numbers mean Cornell is really strong, and Harvard's numbers mean Harvard isn't as strong as their record would indicate, and small sample sizes be damned.

[osorojo]

At a glance it appears Cornell has played opponents close until late in the second period. Is this primarily because of Cornell's depth of talent or Cornell's style of play?

[scoop85]

At a glance it appears Cornell has played opponents close until late in the second period. Is this primarily because of Cornell's depth of talent or Cornell's style of play?

With the exception of Yale, that seems to be the case. I think the depth advantage we have is a big factor.

[French Rage]

At a glance it appears Cornell has played opponents close until late in the second period. Is this primarily because of Cornell's depth of talent or Cornell's style of play?

With the exception of Yale, that seems to be the case. I think the depth advantage we have is a big factor.

Reminds me of the Mankato NCAA game in 2003.  Our top two lines didn't score much because Mankato also had a decent top two lines (as they should being in the tourny).  But our third and fourth lines ran rampant over theirs, leading to a 5-2 win.  It was the ability to run four strong lines that meant a lot.

[andyw2100]

Anyone think we may move to first place in one or both polls this week as a result of beating stronger teams than the team Minnesota State beat twice?

[JasonN95]

Anyone think we may move to first place in one or both polls this week as a result of beating stronger teams than the team Minnesota State beat twice?

Too many votes would need to flip for the USCHO poll so I say no for that. For USA Today I'm going to say yes, but that's a bit of wishful thinking. Minn St crushed Anchorage Friday and handled them easily on Saturday, with more than twice as many shots on net than what Anchorage managed.

[ugarte]

Anyone think we may move to first place in one or both polls this week as a result of beating stronger teams than the team Minnesota State beat twice?

Too many votes would need to flip for the USCHO poll so I say no for that. For USA Today I'm going to say yes, but that's a bit of wishful thinking. Minn St crushed Anchorage Friday and handled them easily on Saturday, with more than twice as many shots on net than what Anchorage managed.

i don't think mankato drops behind us until they lose again regardless of how we do. the only exception is if a a few people notice and credit us for the heater michigan state is on.

[Trotsky]

Anyone think we may move to first place in one or both polls this week as a result of beating stronger teams than the team Minnesota State beat twice?

I suspect even if we win out through New Year's Day including against an otherwise undefeated Harvard team we will still be behind Mankato until they stumble.  That's life in the ECAC.  Fine -- use it to our advantage.

[Jim Hyla]

Anyone think we may move to first place in one or both polls this week as a result of beating stronger teams than the team Minnesota State beat twice?

I suspect even if we win out through New Year's Day including against an otherwise undefeated Harvard team we will still be behind Mankato until they stumble.  That's life in the ECAC.  Fine -- use it to our advantage.

Indeed we're still #1 in PWR. If that persists, (it is relatively meaningless until around mid-January when everyone has played enough games in and out of conference) who cares about the polls.

[Robb]

Anyone think we may move to first place in one or both polls this week as a result of beating stronger teams than the team Minnesota State beat twice?

I suspect even if we win out through New Year's Day including against an otherwise undefeated Harvard team we will still be behind Mankato until they stumble.  That's life in the ECAC.  Fine -- use it to our advantage.

Indeed we're still #1 in PWR. If that persists, (it is relatively meaningless until around mid-January when everyone has played enough games in and out of conference) who cares about the polls.

...and by mid-Feb, the pollsters pretty much just turn in PWR as their ballot anyway.  Stay #1 in PWR and the polls will take care of themselves.