Notre Dame to ACC

[billhoward]

There definitely will be a smaller pool of Haves in football. If you're not in the SEC, Big Ten or Pac (?) Twelve, you may be overlooked.

How is this different from the way it is now?

You're right that it could just be more of the same. I believe however that the additional revenues from new super-conferences and TV let another half-dozen schools approach the $30 million Alabama spends on football and distance themselves from the poseurs in Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference, or WAC. Once you get beyond the top ten or twenty teams willing to get in a spending race (FBS has 120 schools), others are scrambling to keep up. Bloomberg reports Rutgers spent about $30M on all sports or about $1000 per student (some of which came out of the student fees). Will NJ keep those subsidies going? Every big school needs and probably has an indoor facility. Now you may have to have one 120 yards long. Ka-ching. If the coach recruits using a private plane, somebody else recruits in a twin turbo-prop, and then you need a small business jet.

A Big Ten network is also going to get Michigan and TOSU hockey on TV even more. That's one more thing we have to compete against. Fortunately, we can fight back with our worldwide Redcast network.

Is it Alabama? Texas? maybe all of them in FBS that have people hired to make sure each player gets up, gets to class, does homework, etcetera. I'm shocked that this doesn't sound like college.

[Josh '99]

There definitely will be a smaller pool of Haves in football. If you're not in the SEC, Big Ten or Pac (?) Twelve, you may be overlooked.

How is this different from the way it is now?

You're right that it could just be more of the same. I believe however that the additional revenues from new super-conferences and TV let another half-dozen schools approach the $30 million Alabama spends on football and distance themselves from the poseurs in Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference, or WAC. Once you get beyond the top ten or twenty teams willing to get in a spending race (FBS has 120 schools), others are scrambling to keep up. Bloomberg reports Rutgers spent about $30M on all sports or about $1000 per student (some of which came out of the student fees). Will NJ keep those subsidies going? Every big school needs and probably has an indoor facility. Now you may have to have one 120 yards long. Ka-ching. If the coach recruits using a private plane, somebody else recruits in a twin turbo-prop, and then you need a small business jet.

A Big Ten network is also going to get Michigan and TOSU hockey on TV even more. That's one more thing we have to compete against. Fortunately, we can fight back with our worldwide Redcast network.

Is it Alabama? Texas? maybe all of them in FBS that have people hired to make sure each player gets up, gets to class, does homework, etcetera. I'm shocked that this doesn't sound like college.

What?  The way it's going to be is that if you aren't in the SEC, Big Ten, or Pac-12, you might be overlooked, because now more schools will have access the kind of revenue streams that the Alabamas and Texases spend on football?  If that's the case, isn't that arguably better than the way it is now, because at least more schools will have that kind of revenue stream?  Sure, it'll suck for CUSA and the MAC and the MWC (to say nothing of FBS/I-AA programs), but will it suck any more to have 30 schools operating on a fundamentally different playing field than the, say, 20 schools operating that way now?  I don't see why that would be.

[jtn27]

There's also the failure of basic math and geography. The Big Ten won't have 10 teams

Basic math failed a long time ago. The Big Ten hasn't had 10 teams for over 20 years.

[phillysportsfan]

Hopefully it will all blow up in a few years when the projected revenue isnt there. Makes it even funnier that with their own TV network and all their money, Texas can still manage to get destryoed by D2 Chaminade

[Trotsky]

Hopefully it will all blow up in a few years when the projected revenue isnt there

[billhoward]

Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight blogger who started out in sports statistics then called the 2008 and 2012 elections just about spot on, is back to sports. In Expansion by Big Ten May Bring Small Payoff, Nate Silver paints a mixed future for the expanded Big Ten beyond the increased NYC-DC based media attention.

Last year, I conducted an analysis of the 120 members of the N.C.A.A.'s Football Bowl Subdivision, attempting to estimate the number of fans devoted to each program. ...  every college football fan in America was, in theory at least, mapped to his or her favorite team. ... Although New York is the nation's largest media market, and although Rutgers is the most popular team in the New York City area, its over all numbers were just average by this method. That's because only about 15 percent of New Yorkers are avid college football fans, among the lower figures in the country. ... Maryland ... is the predominant college football program in Maryland [but] the state has little passion for college football. And the program has little following outside Maryland's immediate borders, where higher-profile teams like Virginia [Virginia football? -ed.], Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Penn State tend to dominate.

Code Select Expand


Rank Team              Estimated fans
1  The Ohio State U    3,167,263
2  Michigan            2,921,056
3  Penn State          2,642,275
32 Rutgers               937,874
58 Maryland              474,059

But that's [Rutgers] below the Big Ten average of 1.4 million to 1.5 million fans per team. Programs like Wisconsin, which is close to the average with 1.4 million fans, might not seem to have as much media muscle. But these universities often have the affinity of whole states unto themselves, states where college football is a religion on Saturdays rather than an afterthought.

Rutgers and Maryland are outstanding public universities, but they are just not in the same league in terms of football. The Big Ten may have expanded its revenue pie, but it will be dividing it 14 ways rather than 12, and among family members that have less history of sitting down at the table with one another. [Silver also notes traditional Big Ten-to-Rutgers/Maryland games involve 10+ drives for for fans.] In seeking to expand its footprint eastward, the conference may have taken a step in the wrong direction.

[Swampy]

Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight blogger who started out in sports statistics then called the 2008 and 2012 elections just about spot on, is back to sports. In Expansion by Big Ten May Bring Small Payoff, Nate Silver paints a mixed future for the expanded Big Ten beyond the increased NYC-DC based media attention.

Last year, I conducted an analysis of the 120 members of the N.C.A.A.'s Football Bowl Subdivision, attempting to estimate the number of fans devoted to each program. ...  every college football fan in America was, in theory at least, mapped to his or her favorite team. ... Although New York is the nation's largest media market, and although Rutgers is the most popular team in the New York City area, its over all numbers were just average by this method. That's because only about 15 percent of New Yorkers are avid college football fans, among the lower figures in the country. ... Maryland ... is the predominant college football program in Maryland [but] the state has little passion for college football. And the program has little following outside Maryland's immediate borders, where higher-profile teams like Virginia [Virginia football? -ed.], Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Penn State tend to dominate.

Code Select Expand


Rank Team              Estimated fans
1  The Ohio State U    3,167,263
2  Michigan            2,921,056
3  Penn State          2,642,275
32 Rutgers               937,874
58 Maryland              474,059

But that's [Rutgers] below the Big Ten average of 1.4 million to 1.5 million fans per team. Programs like Wisconsin, which is close to the average with 1.4 million fans, might not seem to have as much media muscle. But these universities often have the affinity of whole states unto themselves, states where college football is a religion on Saturdays rather than an afterthought.

Rutgers and Maryland are outstanding public universities, but they are just not in the same league in terms of football. The Big Ten may have expanded its revenue pie, but it will be dividing it 14 ways rather than 12, and among family members that have less history of sitting down at the table with one another. [Silver also notes traditional Big Ten-to-Rutgers/Maryland games involve 10+ drives for for fans.] In seeking to expand its footprint eastward, the conference may have taken a step in the wrong direction.

I read this too and thought that Silver is pretty close to being spot on. Can you say "irrational exuberence" boys and girls?

Then again, can you say, "The AD gets all the credit for the coup, gets a job offer higher up the food chain, and moves on before the chickens come home to roost?" In bubbles those who get in and out early still come away with a pretty penny.

I'm not sure the bubble analogy applies because the AD's and schools with the most to lose are those whose revenues will be diluted by expanding to weaker markets. Obviously the Big 10 is hoping to transform the NY & DC markets, but if the markets stay the same, the other schools will get a lower per-capita share of revenue. (Maybe there's a clause for new member schools that adjusts for this.) Maybe they think Rutgers and Maryland will now have a recruiting advantage, which will translate into higher rankings, which will translate into higher ratings, which will translate into $$. We'll see.

It's just too bad that tradition and culture is being wrecked by this speculative chasing of big bucks.

[Josh '99]

Nate Silver, the FiveThirtyEight blogger who started out in sports statistics then called the 2008 and 2012 elections just about spot on, is back to sports. In Expansion by Big Ten May Bring Small Payoff, Nate Silver paints a mixed future for the expanded Big Ten beyond the increased NYC-DC based media attention.

Last year, I conducted an analysis of the 120 members of the N.C.A.A.'s Football Bowl Subdivision, attempting to estimate the number of fans devoted to each program. ...  every college football fan in America was, in theory at least, mapped to his or her favorite team. ... Although New York is the nation's largest media market, and although Rutgers is the most popular team in the New York City area, its over all numbers were just average by this method. That's because only about 15 percent of New Yorkers are avid college football fans, among the lower figures in the country. ... Maryland ... is the predominant college football program in Maryland [but] the state has little passion for college football. And the program has little following outside Maryland's immediate borders, where higher-profile teams like Virginia [Virginia football? -ed.], Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Penn State tend to dominate.

Code Select Expand


Rank Team              Estimated fans
1  The Ohio State U    3,167,263
2  Michigan            2,921,056
3  Penn State          2,642,275
32 Rutgers               937,874
58 Maryland              474,059

But that's [Rutgers] below the Big Ten average of 1.4 million to 1.5 million fans per team. Programs like Wisconsin, which is close to the average with 1.4 million fans, might not seem to have as much media muscle. But these universities often have the affinity of whole states unto themselves, states where college football is a religion on Saturdays rather than an afterthought.

Rutgers and Maryland are outstanding public universities, but they are just not in the same league in terms of football. The Big Ten may have expanded its revenue pie, but it will be dividing it 14 ways rather than 12, and among family members that have less history of sitting down at the table with one another. [Silver also notes traditional Big Ten-to-Rutgers/Maryland games involve 10+ drives for for fans.] In seeking to expand its footprint eastward, the conference may have taken a step in the wrong direction.

The hope, I would assume, is that Rutgers draws a bandwagon by virtue of improved public perception of the quality of the team because of being in a bigger conference and playing higher-profile opponents.  It's worth noting that, per Silver's original piece from last fall, despite only being part of the national conversation for the past ~10 years, Rutgers had the second-biggest pure numerical following in the Big East (and was almost on par with West Virginia for the biggest) just by virtue of having their small share be cut from a huge pie.  If they were to just grow their fan base to encompass a slightly larger share of the people in New York market who are already NCAA football fans (25% rather than 20%, say), their fan base gets up with Iowa and Nebraska and Michigan State, which seems like a perfectly achievable and acceptable baseline.  But thinking bigger, even if they never have the penetration into the general public that Silver mentions for Nebraska (36.4% of the population of the Omaha media market), even 5% of the NYC media market general public rather than the current 3% puts them in the same ballpark as Wisconsin, if not the big three of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.  You also get greater engagement with the UM/OSU/PSU fans in the NYC market, which presumably is worth something, though I don't have any idea how to quantify it.  

I think Silver also maybe neglects to consider, by focusing on Rutgers' engagement in the NYC media market, that Philadelphia is the fourth-largest media market in the country, and a solid third of that market is in Central and South Jersey.  With New Brunswick being a good deal closer to Philadelphia than State College is, and with the Penn State football program in a bit of a strange place these days, I think they're going for a bigger share of (for Rutgers), and stronger hold on (for the Big Ten), that market as well.  Both NYC and Philly are generally though of as pro sports markets rather than college sports markets (Silver's numbers show that 14% of the NYC-area population and 20% of the Philly-area population follow NCAA football, as compared with 41% in Atlanta, 27% in Dallas, and 28% in Houston), but there's no inherent reason that it must always be that way.

Edit to add:  All that being said, Silver is almost always right and it's no guarantee that this move will work out for any of the parties involved.  I just don't think it needs all that much of a change in people's attitudes for it to be worthwhile.  And I say that as someone who doesn't like this move because I don't think Rutgers belongs in a conference with Big Midwestern Sports Factory State University.

[ugarte]

I think the conference's play here is to get the Big 10 Network picked up by the NY Metro and DC Metro cable carriers. I don't think they think there is a silent but fervent Rutgers or Maryland fanbase. Instead, I think that they hope to get the network carried in the important markets which carries its own financial reward. Then, if the local coverage of Rutgers and Maryland lead to increased interest in actual Rutgers and Maryland football, even better.

As for the schools, Rutgers is escaping a sinking ship; Maryland is trading basketball for football. I'm more skeptical about Maryland's decision.

[Jim Hyla]

I think the conference's play here is to get the Big 10 Network picked up by the NY Metro and DC Metro cable carriers. I don't think they think there is a silent but fervent Rutgers or Maryland fanbase. Instead, I think that they hope to get the network carried in the important markets which carries its own financial reward. Then, if the local coverage of Rutgers and Maryland lead to increased interest in actual Rutgers and Maryland football, even better.

As for the schools, Rutgers is escaping a sinking ship; Maryland is trading basketball for football. I'm more skeptical about Maryland's decision.

Are you sure Maryland is trading away on basketball? I don't know how much the Big Ten gets from basketball, but it's significant. And in basketball they were never going to break thru the Carolina schools, but may have a better chance with the switch. That said, I'm very unhappy with what is going on in big time sports. One wonders what might have happened if SU and PSU could have settled their differences, way bck when, and that a true eastern (really northeastern) sports league had been formed all those years ago.

[ugarte]

I think the conference's play here is to get the Big 10 Network picked up by the NY Metro and DC Metro cable carriers. I don't think they think there is a silent but fervent Rutgers or Maryland fanbase. Instead, I think that they hope to get the network carried in the important markets which carries its own financial reward. Then, if the local coverage of Rutgers and Maryland lead to increased interest in actual Rutgers and Maryland football, even better.

As for the schools, Rutgers is escaping a sinking ship; Maryland is trading basketball for football. I'm more skeptical about Maryland's decision.

Are you sure Maryland is trading away on basketball? I don't know how much the Big Ten gets from basketball, but it's significant. And in basketball they were never going to break thru the Carolina schools, but may have a better chance with the switch. That said, I'm very unhappy with what is going on in big time sports. One wonders what might have happened if SU and PSU could have settled their differences, way bck when, and that a true eastern (really northeastern) sports league had been formed all those years ago.

Oh, the Big 10 is a good basketball conference too, but Maryland is throwing away the regional rivalries and the BEST basketball conference (in intensity, even in the years when it isn't the best talent).

[Chris '03]

Can't be far off. We're now looking at 5 Big Ten lax schools:
Rutgers
Maryland
Penn State
Ohio State
Michigan

Six forces a conference (see men's hockey). Northwestern already dominates women's lax....

The women are at five too:
Rutgers
Maryland
Penn State
Ohio State
Northwestern

[nyc94]

ACC votes to add Louisville and sues Maryland to get the full $50 million exit fee.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8685541/acc-votes-add-louisville-cardinals-source-says

[Swampy]

ACC votes to add Louisville and sues Maryland to get the full $50 million exit fee.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8685541/acc-votes-add-louisville-cardinals-source-says

The ACC also considered UConn and Cincinnati for membership. However, sources told ESPN the league only wanted Louisville because there is a sense among league presidents that the ACC can add more schools at a later date if the ACC lost any other schools.

Makes absolutely no sense. The question is why Louisville over UConn or Cincinnati now.

[ugarte]

ACC votes to add Louisville and sues Maryland to get the full $50 million exit fee.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8685541/acc-votes-add-louisville-cardinals-source-says

The ACC also considered UConn and Cincinnati for membership. However, sources told ESPN the league only wanted Louisville because there is a sense among league presidents that the ACC can add more schools at a later date if the ACC lost any other schools.

Makes absolutely no sense. The question is why Louisville over UConn or Cincinnati now.

Geography.