Predictions for ALL games this week and PWR results

[ajh258]

I know we have a topic about PWR possibilities, but I think it would be more relevant to discuss what results are more likely to happen and then look at where PWR fall.

I'm interested in what you guys think would happen next week and what PWR would be if your predictions come true.

Here's what I got after wasting my entire evening on PWR predictor. (DAMN YOU MARCH MADNESS!!!)

I'm a firm believer of previous H2H results and recent hot streaks as accurate indicators for an upcoming weekend. I can discuss the reasons why I think these are better indicators going into the playoffs than RPI/season records/polling, but based on my research using the criteria I prefer, here is how this upcoming weekend will play out:


AHA:
Niagara over RIT, Air Force over Mercyhurst
Air Force over Niagara

CCHA:
Miami over Western Michigan, Bowling Green over Michigan (this is one of my major upset picks)
Michigan over Western Michigan, Miami over Bowling Green

ECAC:
Cornell over Harvard, Union over Colgate
Harvard over Colgate, Cornell over Union

HEA:
Maine over BU (Terriers haven't had success over Maine this season and BU is inconsistent), BC over Providence
BC over Maine

WCHA:
Denver over Michigan Tech, North Dakota over St. Cloud
Denver over UMD (UMD is also inconsistent at this point in the season), Minnesota over North Dakota (this game is a crapshoot either way, I'm going with the hotter team)
Minnesota over Denver


Here is what NCAA tournament will look like if this scenario plays out:

1. Boston College
2. Michigan
3. Miami
4. Minnesota
5. Ferris State
6. Minnesota-Duluth
7. Cornell
8. Union
9. Boston University
10. Maine
11. Denver
12. North Dakota
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Michigan State
15. Northern Michigan
16. Air Force

And these would be the brackets:
1. (Worcester) BC, Air Force; Union, BU
2. (Green Bay) Michigan, Northern Michigan; Minnesota Duluth, Maine
3. (Bridgeport) Miami, UMass-Lowell; Cornell, Denver
4. (St. Paul) Minnesota, Michigan State; Ferris State, North Dakota


Let's say ECAC is the most volatile and things don't go our way, but other conferences play out the way this was predicted (one or two upsets will have minor effects on overall PWR impact).

If Harvard beats Cornell, but Cornell meets and beats Union at the consolation, Cornell will be 12th and Union will be 13th regardless of who wins the Whitelaw. This will put 3 ECAC teams in the tournament.

If Cornell beats Harvard but loses to Colgate or Union in the championship game, Cornell will be most likely 13th. If Cornell beats Harvard, Colgate wins the Whitelaw and Union loses the consolation game, Cornell will be 12th, Union would be 13th and Colgate would also be in the tournament.

If Cornell loses both games, regardless of the championship result, we will be knocked out. Interestingly, if Harvard wins the Whitelaw over Union, we will be 15th and Harvard will take our at-large spot. One more reason to root against SUCKS ::moon::

Let's see how you guys think this weekend will wind up.


Edit: I did the bracketology just for fun.

[Trotsky]

I'm not putting in the work, but I would take those results and brackets.

[billhoward]

I know we have a topic about PWR possibilities, but I think it would be more relevant to discuss what results are more likely to happen and then look at where PWR fall.

ECAC:
Cornell over Harvard, Union over Colgate
Harvard over Colgate, Cornell over Union
[...]
If Harvard beats Cornell, but Cornell meets and beats Union at the consolation, Cornell will be 12th and Union will be 13th regardless of who wins the Whitelaw. This will put 3 ECAC teams in the tournament.

If Cornell beats Harvard but loses to Colgate or Union in the championship game, Cornell will be most likely 13th. If Cornell beats Harvard, Colgate wins the Whitelaw and Union loses the consolation game, Cornell will be 12th, Union would be 13th and Colgate would also be in the tournament.

If Cornell loses both games, regardless of the championship result, we will be knocked out. Interestingly, if Harvard wins the Whitelaw over Union, we will be 15th and Harvard will take our at-large spot. One more reason to root against SUCKS ::moon::

Nice analysis. If Cornell loses both games, Cornell perhaps doesn't deserve to go. Two losses in the last pre-NCAA games seem worse than two January losses.

[jkahn]

I know we have a topic about PWR possibilities, but I think it would be more relevant to discuss what results are more likely to happen and then look at where PWR fall.

I'm interested in what you guys think would happen next week and what PWR would be if your predictions come true.

Here's what I got after wasting my entire evening on PWR predictor. (DAMN YOU MARCH MADNESS!!!)

I'm a firm believer of previous H2H results and recent hot streaks as accurate indicators for an upcoming weekend. I can discuss the reasons why I think these are better indicators going into the playoffs than RPI/season records/polling, but based on my research using the criteria I prefer, here is how this upcoming weekend will play out:


AHA:
Niagara over RIT, Air Force over Mercyhurst
Air Force over Niagara

CCHA:
Miami over Western Michigan, Bowling Green over Michigan (this is one of my major upset picks)
Michigan over Western Michigan, Miami over Bowling Green

ECAC:
Cornell over Harvard, Union over Colgate
Harvard over Colgate, Cornell over Union

HEA:
Maine over BU (Terriers haven't had success over Maine this season and BU is inconsistent), BC over Providence
BC over Maine

WCHA:
Denver over Michigan Tech, North Dakota over St. Cloud
Denver over UMD (UMD is also inconsistent at this point in the season), Minnesota over North Dakota (this game is a crapshoot either way, I'm going with the hotter team)
Minnesota over Denver


Here is what NCAA tournament will look like if this scenario plays out:

1. Boston College
2. Michigan
3. Miami
4. Minnesota
5. Ferris State
6. Minnesota-Duluth
7. Cornell
8. Union
9. Boston University
10. Maine
11. Denver
12. North Dakota
13. UMass-Lowell
14. Michigan State
15. Northern Michigan
16. Air Force

And these would be the brackets:
1. (Worcester) BC, Air Force; Union, BU
2. (Green Bay) Michigan, Northern Michigan; Minnesota Duluth, Maine
3. (Bridgeport) Miami, UMass-Lowell; Cornell, Denver
4. (St. Paul) Minnesota, Michigan State; Ferris State, North Dakota


Let's say ECAC is the most volatile and things don't go our way, but other conferences play out the way this was predicted (one or two upsets will have minor effects on overall PWR impact).

If Harvard beats Cornell, but Cornell meets and beats Union at the consolation, Cornell will be 12th and Union will be 13th regardless of who wins the Whitelaw. This will put 3 ECAC teams in the tournament.

If Cornell beats Harvard but loses to Colgate or Union in the championship game, Cornell will be most likely 13th. If Cornell beats Harvard, Colgate wins the Whitelaw and Union loses the consolation game, Cornell will be 12th, Union would be 13th and Colgate would also be in the tournament.

If Cornell loses both games, regardless of the championship result, we will be knocked out. Interestingly, if Harvard wins the Whitelaw over Union, we will be 15th and Harvard will take our at-large spot. One more reason to root against SUCKS ::moon::

Let's see how you guys think this weekend will wind up.


Edit: I did the bracketology just for fun.

We actually can make the NCAA's despite losing two, in at least several scenarios where Western Michigan also loses two, Union wins the ECACs, BGSU doesn't win the CCHA and Providence doesn't win Hockey East.  In those scenarios we only get passed by Michigan St. and Northern Michigan, and we finish 15th.  But that sure isn't the way we want to get there.  Here's just one example if you want to run it yourself:

WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Bowling Green defeats Western Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

[ajh258]

Nice analysis. If Cornell loses both games, Cornell perhaps doesn't deserve to go. Two losses in the last pre-NCAA games seem worse than two January losses.

Thanks! Hope to see you tomorrow night at the Boardwalk!

We actually can make the NCAA's despite losing two, in at least several scenarios where Western Michigan also loses two, Union wins the ECACs, BGSU doesn't win the CCHA and Providence doesn't win Hockey East. In those scenarios we only get passed by Michigan St. and Northern Michigan, and we finish 15th. But that sure isn't the way we want to get there.

Yep, it's possible, but ALL of these three things have to change from my predictions in order for us to get in with 2 losses:

1.) Western Michigan gets swept
2.) BU beats Maine
3.) No upset championships from the top-4 conferences (Union has to win; Providence and Bowling Green must lose)


Now, #3 is most likely going to happen, and #2 has a ~40% chance, but I really don't see BU beating Maine. Terriers are 1-2-0 against Maine this year, they are experiencing some recently losses, and someone from USCHO forums mentioned how Maine has basically beat BU the last few times they met in HEA playoffs.

The odds of all three happening at the same time are even smaller than the individual odds, so I wouldn't really count on an NCAA bid for Cornell if we lose both games this weekend.

[billhoward]

We actually can make the NCAA's despite losing two, in at least several scenarios where Western Michigan also loses two, Union wins the ECACs, BGSU doesn't win the CCHA and Providence doesn't win Hockey East.  In those scenarios we only get passed by Michigan St. and Northern Michigan, and we finish 15th.  But that sure isn't the way we want to get there.  Here's just one example if you want to run it yourself:

WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Bowling Green defeats Western Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

Figuring NASCAR points is simpler. I like the certainty and simplicity of beating Harvard Friday. Just make this an overall downer end-of-week for the Crimson. Let's put an end to Crimsanity.

[andyw2100]

If Colgate loses both games this weekend could they fall out of TUC status, thereby helping our pairwise ranking?

[ugarte]

I'm rooting for Cornell, Union and Michigan tomorrow, right?

[Rita]

I'm rooting for Cornell, Union and Michigan tomorrow, right?

Right in my world. I'm rooting for those teams too.

[Greenberg '97]

Jayson Moy updated his bracketology blog after tonight's games.  If I'm reading correctly, it basically boils down to Cornell being in with a win or tie, out with a loss.  I'm going to spend the next few minutes playing with the predictor to see if I can prove this wrong.

[jtwcornell91]

Jayson Moy updated his bracketology blog after tonight's games.  If I'm reading correctly, it basically boils down to Cornell being in with a win or tie, out with a loss.  I'm going to spend the next few minutes playing with the predictorYATC to see if I can prove this wrong.

FYP.

[Greenberg '97]

Jayson Moy updated his bracketology blog after tonight's games.  If I'm reading correctly, it basically boils down to Cornell being in with a win or tie, out with a loss.  I'm going to spend the next few minutes playing with the predictorYATC to see if I can prove this wrong.

FYP.

Sorry, John.  I was under the impression that you gave uscho permission to use it, or at least that you had in the past.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Jayson Moy updated his bracketology blog after tonight's games.  If I'm reading correctly, it basically boils down to Cornell being in with a win or tie, out with a loss.  I'm going to spend the next few minutes playing with the predictor to see if I can prove this wrong.

That's correct.  In at #13 with a win or tie, out with a loss.

Now here's an interesting twist.  If Union beats Harvard tonight, they move up to a one-seed.  So that puts BC in Worcester and Union in Bridgeport.  Michigan would be in Green Bay and NoDak, Ferris, or Miami in St. Paul.  The 4 seed teams would be us, two CCHA teams, and the AHA champ.  As #13, we end up playing the #4 seed in St. Paul.  The only way we might not be in St. Paul is if NoDak is #4.  Then they could swap us with one of the CCHA teams and ship us to Green Bay to play Michigan and preserve BC's right to play the AHA team.

If Sucks beats Union, there's still a way where Union is still a 1-seed.  BC, NoDak and RIT all have to win and Miami has to lose.  Otherwise Union is a 2-seed.  Then...
 
If Maine wins Hockey East, they get Bridgeport and the WCHA winner gets St. Paul.  But if Maine loses... #4 is either Miami (if they win) or Ferris (if Miami loses).  We'd play one of those two in Bridgeport, Harvard goes to Green Bay, and the CCHA team goes to St. Paul.

In other words, if we're in and if Union wins, we will very likely get shipped out west.  If Harvard wins, we probably stay east.

As much as it pains me, if we win the consy, I have to root for Sucks.  ::scream::

[nyc94]

As much as it pains me, if we win the consy, I have to root for Sucks.  ::scream::

No, no, no, no.

[jtwcornell91]

As much as it pains me, if we win the consy, I have to root for Sucks.  ::scream::

No, no, no, no.

Well, I'd prefer to see the Cantabs win for three reasons on top of Cornell's regional placement:

• It would get an additional ECAC team in the tourney, even if it's for a trademark one-and-done
• We'd get more ammuniton to mock them after another one-and-done
• Union has never won the ECACs and I'd prefer to keep it that way