2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

[TShen]

UND wins it . Final score is 5-3.

[Jacob '06]

CHN's script seems to have been making no sense... so ignore everything above...

Curenntly from USCHO with a 3/2/1 bonus:

1   Wisconsin (Wi)   28   .5782*      Mn   BU   MS   Ha   Mm   ND   Cr   Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
2   Minnesota (Mn)   27   .5772*         BU   MS   Ha   Mm   ND   Cr   Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
3   Boston University (BU)   26   .5707            MS   Ha   Mm   ND   Cr   Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
4   Michigan State (MS)   25   .5698               Ha   Mm   ND   Cr   Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
5   Harvard (Ha)   24   .5655                  Mm   ND   Cr   Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
6t   Miami (Mm)   22   .5620                     ND      Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
6t   North Dakota (ND)   22   .5596                        Cr   Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
6t   Cornell (Cr)   22   .5516                  Mm         Mi   CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
9   Michigan (Mi)   20   .5478                              CC   BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
10   Colorado College (CC)   19   .5453                                 BC   Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
11   Boston College (BC)   18   .5444                                    Me   NH   NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
12t   Maine (Me)   16   .5428                                       NH      Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
12t   New Hampshire (NH)   16   .5403                                          NO   Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
12t   Nebraska-Omaha (NO)   16   .5360                                    Me         Da   DU   NM   SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
15t   Dartmouth (Da)   12   .5373                                                DU   NM      Ak   FS   HC   SL      Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
15t   Denver (DU)   12   .5274                                                   NM   SC   Ak   FS      SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
15t   Northern Michigan (NM)   12   .5233                                                      SC   Ak   FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
18   St. Cloud State (SC)   11   .5263                                             Da            Ak   FS      SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
19   Alaska-Fairbanks (Ak)   10   .5241                                                            FS   HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
20   Ferris State (FS)   9   .5235                                                               HC   SL   OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
21t   Holy Cross (HC)   7   .5330*                                                DU      SC            SL   OS   Vt      Cg      BS   
21t   St. Lawrence (SL)   7   .5180*                                                                     OS   Vt   LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
23   Ohio State (OS)   6   .5111                                             Da                           Vt   LS      Pv   BS   Mk
24   Vermont (Vt)   5   .5075                                                                           LS   Cg   Pv   BS   Mk
25   Lake Superior (LS)   4   .5059                                                               HC               Cg      BS   Mk
26t   Colgate (Cg)   3   .5171                                                                     OS            Pv   BS   
26t   Providence (Pv)   3   .5067                                                               HC            LS            Mk
28t   Bemidji State (BS)   2   .4945                                                                                 Pv      Mk
28t   Minnesota State (Mk)   2   .5028

[PinkyGen]

[quote Tub(a)]With 33/22/11 and UND winning-----

Green Bay:

Wisc
Cornell
Miami
Bemidji

Worcester:

Harvard
UND
Michigan
Holy Cross

I think that's a very winnable bracket for CU and a nearly impossible one for Harvard.[/quote]

Really? I mean, aren't we out-west, and facing Wisconsin near their home ice. And Miami has had there great year? (Albeit marred by a loss in their tournament).

I look in Harvard's bracket, and I really see is UND. Michigan is having a down year, and I don't know much about Holy Cross.

I don't follow outside the ECAC that much, so if I'm wrong, let me know.

[Tub(a)]

[quote Al DeFlorio]I think they're ignoring the bonus.[/quote]

May the selection committee follow their infinite wisdom  ::nut::

This is what the bonus-free bracket would look like:

Green Bay:

Wisc
Miami
CC
Bemidji

Albany (I think it is closer to MSU than Grand Forks):

MSU
UND
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minnesota
Harvard
BC
SCSU

Worcester:

Cornell
BU
UNO
UNH (revenge!!)

Minny can't play SCSU and ND has to be in Grand Forks. They could switch UND with Harvard and SCSU with UNH, so it would probably look like:


Green Bay:

Wisc
Miami
CC
Bemidji

Albany (I think it is closer to MSU than Grand Forks):

MSU
Harvard
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minnesota
UND
BC
UNH

Worcester:

Cornell
BU
UNO
SCSU

Harvard lucks out into an East spot, but in a tough bracket. Once again, Cornell's bracket looks very reasonable.

[Tub(a)]

Hmm.. one of CHN or USCHO is wrong, because they are giving VERY different results.

I put my money on CHN...

EDIT: I am using CHN's YATC

[redredux]

According to CHN we're headed to GB to play Michigan in the first round.

[bigred06]

Dont forget these factors:

The remaining 12 teams are then "banded" into groups of four, corresponding to Seed Nos. 2-4. An attempt will first be made to keep teams closest to their home region, but there is an emphasis on avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. Factors such as maximizing gate revenue, and limiting travel costs can also be taken into consideration. As a result, seeds can be flip-flop with same-numbered seeds of other regions.

If they follow these Cornell will stay east and albany makes most sense. Also Harvard could end up being a 1 seed in albany and Cornell being a 2. The seeding is not souly based on the pairwise. In the end the commity will make the decision.

[redredux]

I don't think they try to keep teams closest to their home brackets unless the teams are No. 1 seeds.  Seeds 5-16 are sent to the necessary regional so that 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15, etc.  This is the formula except when intraconference first round matchups get in the way.

[bigred06]

The remaining 12 teams [/B] are then "banded" into groups of four, corresponding to Seed Nos. 2-4. An attempt will first be made to keep teams closest to their home region, but there is an emphasis on avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. Factors such as maximizing gate revenue, and limiting travel costs can also be taken into consideration. As a result, seeds can be flip-flop with same-numbered seeds of other regions.

http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=selection#b3

The remaining 12 seeds are the teams who are not a #1 seed.

[Tub(a)]

[quote bigred06]The remaining 12 teams [/B] are then "banded" into groups of four, corresponding to Seed Nos. 2-4. An attempt will first be made to keep teams closest to their home region, but there is an emphasis on avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. Factors such as maximizing gate revenue, and limiting travel costs can also be taken into consideration. As a result, seeds can be flip-flop with same-numbered seeds of other regions.

http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=selection#b3

The remaining 12 seeds are the teams who are not a #1 seed.[/quote]

I don't know if you have followed this process before this year, but what redredux is trying to say is that they tend to ignore that directive once they are beyond the first band in order to preserve the 1-16/8-9 etc... set up.

[redredux]

Here's the next paragraph:

Though not in its stated list of guidelines, the committee has made a concerted effort in the two years the 16-team field has existed to maintain a strict bracket. In other words, teams are given overall seed numbers, 1-16. The brackets are arranged 1-6-8-9, 2-15-7-10, 3-14-6-11, 4-13-5-12. Adjustments are then made for factors such as avoiding intra-conference matchups, and host schools playing in their home region. But otherwise, the committee has attempted to adhere to this philosophy and a strict reading of the PWR list. Whether that continues in the future, is anyone's guess.

I hope you are right; I hope Cornell stays east.  I wouldn't count on it.

[bigred06]

Yeh i know. I'm just thinking optimistically.

[jy3]

this is what I get

1. wisconsin
2. minne
3. bu
4. mich state

5. hahvahd
6. miami
7. und
8. cornell

9. umich
10 cc
11 bc
12 maine

13 uhn
14. nebo
15. holy cross
16 bemidji

green bay
1. wisconsin (1)
2. cornell (
3. michigan (9)
4. bemidji (16)

grand forks
1. minne (2)
2. nodak (7)
3. cc (10) -> bc (11)
4 holy cross (15)

worchester
1 bu (3)
2 miami (6)
3 bc (11) -> cc(10)
4 nebo (14)

albany
1 michigan state (4)
2 havhahd (5)
3 maine (12)
4 uhn (13)

nodak and cc cant play so swap bc and cc

[Rita]

On USCHO, Jayson Moy just put up his bracket. (Adam's Wodon's from CHN in []). Adam's bracket has some bonus factor into it. I could not tell if Jayson's includes a bonus factor and the USCHO server went down(?), I cannot connect to it.

Jayson's bracket swaps Cornell and Miami and also puts BC in Worcester. That would certainly ensure a very good take at the gate. However, it does go against keeping 1-16, 2-15 etc bracket integrity.  If the committee is concerned about attendance at Worcester, wouldn't be easier to swap Neb-Omaha (14) with either Maine or UNH (12, 13)? So what is more important to the committee this year, preserving bracket integrity or keeping as many teams close to home?

Well, we will know for sure in 11 hours.

Green Bay
1. Wisconsin      [1. Wisconsin]
6. Miami          [8. Cornell]
9. CC             [9. Michigan]
16. BSU           [16. BSU]

Albany
4. MSU            [4. MSU]
5. Harvard        [5. Harvard]
12. Maine         [12. Maine]
13. UNH           [13. UNH]

Grand Forks
2. Minnesota      [2. Minnesota]
7. UND            [7. UND]
10. Michigan      [11. BC]
15. Holy Cross    [15. Holy Cross]

Northeast
3. BU            [3. BU]
8. Cornell       [6. Miami]
11. BC           [10. CC]
14. Neb-Omaha    [14. Neb-Omaha]

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Rita]
Jayson's bracket swaps Cornell and Miami and also puts BC in Worcester. That would certainly ensure a very good take at the gate. However, it does go against keeping 1-16, 2-15 etc bracket integrity.  If the committee is concerned about attendance at Worcester, wouldn't be easier to swap Neb-Omaha (14) with either Maine or UNH (12, 13)? [/quote]

Yeah, fat chance. We're going to Green Bay. Unless the committee feels really bad about last year. So, fat chance.