2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

jtwcornell91 · March 13, 2006, 08:32:10 AM

The previous thread is almost 200 posts long, and we're entering a new phase with only the conference tournaments to go, so I propose we discuss the "what if" scenarios here.

And at last we're at the stage where there are few enough games left to project the seedings with an interface less cumbersome than the DIY script at http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?rankings.diy . Specifically, "You Are The Committee" which this year is found at http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

With all the higher seeds winning and 33/22/11 bonuses, I got us tied for 5th with UND and losing either tiebreaker. #6 is okay though, since if we're in the same band as UND, we can't get sent to Grand Forks.

Tub(a) · March 13, 2006, 08:41:32 AM

Good Idea

-------------------

Cornell in 2nd (GO UMD!):

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Harvard defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.

Cornell at 13 :`(:

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.

Curious to see what other extremes people come up with

Used 33/22/11

Tub(a) · March 13, 2006, 09:23:21 AM

Picking up discussion from another thread, here is an upset heavy set of games that has Cornell as the last team in at 11 with 5 AQs below them

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Maine.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota.

This would likely set up a bracket in Albany (Wisconsin and Minnesoat are 1,2) that I think is favorable to CU:

MSU
Miami
CU
Colgate

jtwcornell91 · March 13, 2006, 09:30:39 AM

Here's a bad one (Cornell tied for 12th with UNO, losing the comparison but winning RPI, with 3 AQs below us.):

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.

DeltaOne81 · March 13, 2006, 09:46:12 AM

[quote jtwcornell91]
With all the higher seeds winning and 33/22/11 bonuses, I got us tied for 5th with UND and losing either tiebreaker. #6 is okay though, since if we're in the same band as UND, we can't get sent to Grand Forks.[/quote]

I get us tied for 6th and losing the tiebreaker. Still can't get sent to Grand Forks, but Green Bay looks particularly realistic in that case. What are we doing different?

Jordan 04 · March 13, 2006, 10:03:30 AM

The clear message seems to be: at the very very least, win a game this weekend.

KeithK · March 13, 2006, 12:00:44 PM

[quote Jordan 04]The clear message seems to be: at the very very least, win a game this weekend.[/quote]Man, that's asking a lot. :-P

Cop at Lynah · March 13, 2006, 03:32:08 PM

This would get us a #4 overall seed (using .0033/.0022/.0011)

Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.

Jacob '06 · March 13, 2006, 03:37:19 PM

One of you more computer savvy people could probably set up some program to run every possibility. It has to be to a point where a program can do this in a few minutes and figure out what the lowest and highest ones are.

redhair34 · March 13, 2006, 03:42:29 PM

[quote Jacob '06]One of you more computer savvy people could probably set up some program to run every possibility. It has to be to a point where a program can do this in a few minutes and figure out what the lowest and highest ones are.[/quote]

Yeah that sounds like a good idea... ::help:: (plea from the non computer savvy)

Toboggan · March 13, 2006, 03:47:48 PM

How about we figure out the possible results if we win both games this weekend?
Check to see what is out of our control, so we know who to root for.

Robb · March 13, 2006, 03:49:00 PM

19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time. The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...

KeithK · March 13, 2006, 03:53:47 PM

In other words, the brute force approach still isn't reasonable with today's computers. At least not until late Friday night.

Edit: Not to mention that a variable set of RPI bonuses makes the set of possibilities infinite.

nr53 · March 13, 2006, 03:56:52 PM

Does USCHO's pairwise bracket use the 33/22/11 bonus? As I'm looking at it, it still has Miami as a 1 seed which is consistent with no bonus, but then they have BU ahead of us, which happens with the bonus but then Miami is a 2 seed behind us (6th overall). Am I missing something here or is their bracket just wrong? (in both cases Cornell stays put at #5 overall)

bothman · March 13, 2006, 04:54:12 PM

From USCHO:

Try this on for size. It gets Holy Cross to 10 and knocks Cornell, BC and Michigan out of the tournament.

CCHA: Michigan State over NMU and then the third place game is Miami over Michigan.

ECACHL: Dartmouth over Colgate and then the third place game is Harvard over Cornell

HEA: BU over Maine

WCHA: Minnesota-Duluth over Wisconsin and then the third place game is Minnesota over North Dakota

AH: Bentley over Holy Cross

Use the .003, .002, .001 bonus

2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

bothman