Quest for #1 seed

[Al DeFlorio]

[Q]Chris 02 Wrote:

 Here's a crazy scenario.  It has the EZAC getting 5 teams and WCHA and HEA only getting 4 (all other conferences get 1)!


ECAC Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
 [/q]
This would not be a scenario to celebrate.  ::uhoh::

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Damn straight, Al.

Getting 5 ECAC teams in is not a goal in my mind.  Winning in Albany is.

[Will]

Someone on the USCHO message board had posted a way for five ECACHL teams to get in with Cornell still winning the tournament.  I'd love to see that happen, if only to really piss off the WCHA posters there. :-D

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

OK, I'll take THAT.  :-P

[Scersk '97]

[Q]Will Wrote:

 Someone on the USCHO message board had posted a way for five ECACHL teams to get in with Cornell still winning the tournament.  I'd love to see that happen, if only to really piss off the WCHA posters there.[/q]

That would be me, but I posted it here http://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,59008 first.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Here's a fun one:

1. CC
2. Minn
3. BC
4. Cornell
5. BU
6. Denver
7. Mich
8. NoDak
9. Maine
10. Hahvahd
11. UNH
12. Colgate
13. Dartmouth
14. UVM
15. Bemidji
16. Holy Cross

We get a 1-seed, a first round game against CHA or AHA, and 5 ECAC teams make the tourney.  Plus we'd probably get to play in Worcester in order to preserve the 4-5 pairing.  All of this and we don't even need to win out in Albany!

The games:

CCHA Play-in #2: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Championship game: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Ohio State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats Denver.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac.

[Stephen Turner]

I can't figure out why Brown would no longer be a TUC.  Why does their RPI go down if we beat Vermont?  Since there schedule strength is less than .5000, and they played both teams twice, it seems to me that their schedule strength should improve, and their RPI should increase.  If anyone can figure this out, please post.

[Stephen Turner]

I think you overlooked having UNO winning the CCHA tournament, but not getting a bid to the NCAA!

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Crazy theory:  Vermont and Brown both played UMD.  Possibly a UVM loss hits the opponents-opponents % harder for Brown because of those two extra common opponent games?

[jkahn]

[Q]Stephen Turner Wrote:

 I can't figure out why Brown would no longer be a TUC.  Why does their RPI go down if we beat Vermont?  Since there schedule strength is less than .5000, and they played both teams twice, it seems to me that their schedule strength should improve, and their RPI should increase.  If anyone can figure this out, please post.[/q]
  Since our winning percentage goes up by less than Vermont's goes down, our winning has a negative effect on the average percentage of Brown's opponents.  Over the course of the weekend, it looks like the only way Brown stays a TUC is Colgate winning twice, as they often end up at .5001 - although in some scenarios they just miss.  Hopefully we don't end up in the stupid scenario where we would've been better off if one of our Brown wins was a tie instead.

[Stephen Turner]

It still doesn't make sense, as Brown's RPI goes down more if Vermont wins than if we win (.0004 vs .0003) according to the "you are the committee"  I just don't see how their strength of schedule is weaker when 2 teams that they have played twice each play each other.  It should have minimal impact, if any.  Alaska Anchorage had their RPI go down .001 after Wisconsin's loss, but that makes much more sense.  They played Wisconsin 7 times, and North Dakota 4 times.  Plus their strength of schedule is above .5000, so when common opponents play each other, their schedule strength should move towards .5000

[jkahn]

[Q]Stephen Turner Wrote:

 It still doesn't make sense, as Brown's RPI goes down more if Vermont wins than if we win (.0004 vs .0003) according to the "you are the committee"  
[/q]
The reason Brown's RPI goes down either way is as follows:
If we beat Vermont, our winning percentage goes up slightly, but Vermont's goes down more, so the two have a negative effect on the average winning percentages of Brown's opponents.  
If Vermont were to win, our winning percentage goes down more than Vermont's goes up, with a  bigger cumulative negative effect between the two than in the other scenario.

[Stephen Turner]

Thanks.  Really stupid that it is based on %, and not records.  If you play 2 teams, 1 is 1-0, the other is 0-10, your schedule strength is 50% and not 9% (1-10).

[Stephen Turner]

This doesn't work.  Nebraska-Omaha is winning the CCHA tournament, and not receiving a bid to the NCAAs!

[DeltaOne81]

UNO with get the AQ if they were to win. The YATC script should be reflecting that, as it was for the AHA champ.

What the whole Brown thing relates to is just the fact the conference play trends RPI towards .5000 . The more conference games you play, the more your conference teams tend to have an RPI closer to .5000 (cause for every win, there's a loss) . Since Brown isn't playing, its Cornell/Harvard/Colgate/UVMs RPIs which will trend towards .5000 this weekend. Since we're all greater than .5000, it will hurt everyone else in the conference.

Luckily, the same is to be said of all other conference tourneys this weekend. Unluckily, the TUC category isn't relative.