Quest for #1 seed

[KenP]

As I mentioned in another thread, Cornell has a slim chance for a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney.  Currently, we are #6 in PWR.  We need to move up 2 spots to get a #1 seed.

Boston College, Colorado College and Minnesota have insurmountable leads over us in the Pairwise comparisons.  That leaves Michigan and Denver.

For Denver, we need to overcome their RPI lead of .5837 to .5722.  It'll be tough, especially given our weaker-conference schedule.  A little help is needed.

For Michigan, they helped us by losing to Norther Mich last night.  Currently the comparison is:

      Michigan vs Cornell 
      .5695 0 RPI 1 .5722  
9-6-1 .5938 1 TUC 0 .5833 6-4-2 
2-1-0 .6667 1 COp 0 .2500 0-1-1 
            0 H2H 0
            2 TOT 1  

We need to switch one more comparison...TUC or COp.  Michigan plays Mich State next week...we need to root for the Spartans!!!!  Otherwise, each TUC win is critical.

More after tonight's games...

[Greg Berge]

TUC = (RPI >= .500)

Correct?

[DeltaOne81]

Correct

[Greg Berge]

So our remaining TUC (by current RPI) are:

.560 Colgate (twice)
.517 SLU

and then potentially in the PS, the above plus:

.566 Harvard
.533 Vermont
.532 Dartmouth
.516 Brown

[Greg Berge]

Common Opponents are:

SLU (Michigan 1-0-0, Cornell 0-0-0 and 2 remaining)
Michigan State (Michigan 2-1-0 and 2 remaining, Cornell 0-1-1)

taking the best possible results, going into the PS it would be:

SLU (Michigan 1-0-0, Cornell 2-0-0)
Michigan State (Michigan 2-3-0, Cornell 0-1-1)

Total: Michigan 3-3-0, Cornell 2-1-1

So that's a loooooooooooong shot, albeit possible.  These SLU games are amazingly important.

[DeltaOne81]

If I remember correctly, getting an auto bid automatically makes you a TUC. So we can route for Sacred Heart or Canisius to win Atlantic Hockey (or Army, haha) and get us another TUC win.

[KenP]

**** DISCLAIMER FOR WOOFING GODS ****

THE CONTENTS OF THIS THREAD ARE AN ANALYSIS ONLY.  NOTHING IN THIS THREAD IS MEANT TO SUGGEST IN ANY WAY THE OUTCOME OF ANY OR ALL GAMES THIS SEASON.

[KenP]

[Q]Greg Berge Wrote:

 Common Opponents are:

SLU (Michigan 1-0-0, Cornell 0-0-0 and 2 remaining)
Michigan State (Michigan 2-1-0 and 2 remaining, Cornell 0-1-1)

taking the best possible results, going into the PS it would be:

SLU (Michigan 1-0-0, Cornell 2-0-0)
Michigan State (Michigan 2-3-0, Cornell 0-1-1)

Total: Michigan 3-3-0, Cornell 2-1-1

So that's a loooooooooooong shot, albeit possible.  These SLU games are amazingly important.[/q]
It's a looooong shot to win the comparison.  Even tying the comparison will help by eliminating a point and potentially giving us the Comparison based on an RPI-tiebreaker.

[Pete Godenschwager]

Cornell is up to #5 now

[nyc94]

That shouldn't hold when the Michigan game is a final.  I think it is currently 3-1 late in the third.

[KenP]

It might.  Looks like one of Michigan's victims are no longer a TUC.  Their TUC record went from 9-6-1 to 7-6-1.  Even with the win (assuming they don't catch up in RPI), our 7-4-2 beats their (soon to be) 8-6-1.

Now, if we can only gain 0.0053 on Denver......

[Josh '99]

Michigan dropped a good amount when they lost those two TUC wins.  USCHO now has them tied with Harvard for 10th.

[Chris \'03]

At the moment adding an RPI bonus has a big impact.

Top 14 w/o bonues:
1     Boston College    28     2     17-3-4     .7917     3     .5899
2    Colorado College    27    1    21-4-2    .8148    1    .6085
3    Minnesota    26    12    19-9-0    .6786    2    .5983
4    Denver    25    6    17-6-1    .7292    4    .5836
5    Cornell    24    3    15-4-2    .7619    6    .5783
6t    Boston University    21    20    15-10-1    .5962    5    .5784
6t    New Hampshire    21    8    17-6-3    .7115    8    .5647
8t    Mass.-Lowell    20    10    15-6-3    .6875    9    .5642
8t    Wisconsin    20    4    19-6-1    .7500    11    .5586
10t    Michigan    19    7    19-7-1    .7222    7    .5695
10t    Harvard    19    11    12-5-2    .6842    10    .5604
12    North Dakota    17    21    14-10-3    .5741    12    .5551
13t    Colgate    16    5    19-7-0    .7308    15    .5488
13t    Ohio State    16    9    18-7-3    .6964    13    .5492

And with a .005, 3, 1 bonus:
1     Boston College    28     2     17-3-4     .7917     3     .5949
2    Colorado College    27    1    21-4-2    .8148    1    .6095
3    Minnesota    26    12    19-9-0    .6786    2    .6043
4    Denver    25    6    17-6-1    .7292    4    .5847
5    Cornell    24    3    15-4-2    .7619    5    .5811
6t    Michigan    22    7    19-7-1    .7222    7    .5725
6t    Harvard    22    11    12-5-2    .6842    8    .5673
8    Wisconsin    20    4    19-6-1    .7500    12    .5596
9    Mass.-Lowell    19    10    15-6-3    .6875    10    .5652
10t    New Hampshire    18    8    17-6-3    .7115    9    .5657
10t    Ohio State    18    9    18-7-3    .6964    14    .5492
12t    Boston University    17    20    15-10-1    .5962    6    .5791
12t    North Dakota    17    21    14-10-3    .5741    11    .5648
14t    Colgate    15    5    19-7-0    .7308    15    .5491
14t    Northern Michigan    15    15    13-7-5    .6200    20    .5356

[nyc94]

Good catch.  

[Chris \'03]

[Q]KenP Wrote:



Now, if we can only gain 0.0053 on Denver......
[/q]

Michigan Tech is close to sneaking into TUC position. If they can string some more wins together, what would hang a TUC loss on Denver and a pair on Minnesota which could be nice in the long run.

Also, the Michigan win tonight puts them in a tie for 5 (they win the tie break) in PWR with a resonable bonus. Without it Michigan is behind in 6th.