Quest for #1 seed

[Al DeFlorio]

[Q]nyc94 Wrote:

 [Q2]Al DeFlorio Wrote:  
Seems to me in 2003 they made an executive decision that Worcester and Providence were effectively equidistant for Cornell, and one could make that same argument for BC this year regarding Worcester and Amherst.  It's not like we're talking Worcester vs. Grand Rapids.[/Q]
I think they put Cornell in Providence so we would match up with BC in the second round instead of BU which was hosting in Worcester.  According to Moy's analysis post-selection show  the final "pre-bonus" PWR was:

1 Cornell
2 Colorado College
3 Minnesota
4 New Hampshire
5 Boston University
6 Maine
7 Ferris State
8 Boston College
9 Michigan
10 North Dakota
11 Ohio State
12 Harvard
13 Minnesota State
14 St. Cloud State
15 Mercyhurst
16 Wayne State

The idea was to give us the "weakest" of the #2 seeds.  Yes, it probably hinged on the two cities being equidistant but imagine the reaction if we drew Minnesota State AND BU.  Moy assumes the RPI bonus moved St. Cloud ahead of Minnesota State making Minnesota State the lowest seed we could play without causing a WCHA-WCHA first round matchup.[/q]
Right.  

And this year, depending where Cornell and BC wind up (presuming both would be #1 seeds) vis-a-vis BU, I think the committee would feel free to swap BC from Worcester to Amherst--even though it's somewhat further from Chestnut Hill--to make the actual pairings come out more in-line with the final seedings.

[Guess I'm hoping there's a way we can end up playing on a 200x85 sheet.]

[KeithK]

[Q]heykb Wrote:

 [Q2]KeithK Wrote:

 Unfortunately there aren't a lot of facilities close by Ithaca that could host a regional.  I'd imagine that hosting requires a lot of direct work with the arena staff, which would mean a lot of travelling.  That of course assumes Cornell is even interested in hosting.  Does anyone remember a case where an Ivy school hosted an NCAA event?
[/Q]
Cornell hosted the NCAA lacrosse final when I was there.  Didn't Princeton host it just a year or two ago? Penn may host b-ball when it's in Philly - I don't know.
~Karl B. '77[/q]
From the duh department (and answering my own question) Cornell hosted a lax regional last year, which was well reported on this forum.
 ::nut::

[ben03]

... and did not do it v. well either :-/

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I also found that if Denver loses twice, and Michigan loses once, we can still get a 1 seed if we lose the final.  

If Denver loses twice and Michigan wins out, we're #5 in the PWR, but Minny isn't #4, so we stay east.

Die Pioneers!

[Tub(a)]

Here's a great scenario (slightly adapted from Mike's prediction):

    *  CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
    * CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
    * ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate.
    * ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
    * ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
    * ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Vermont.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.
    * Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston University.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
    * WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver.
    * WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac.

This would put us at 2, and the bracket would look like:

Worcester

Cornell
BU
NoDak
Bemidji

Not only do we get Eastern NHL Ice, but that is a pretty good set of opponents. One can dream...

[Ken \'70]

In every yatc scenario I've run Brown drops from TUC.  Has anybody run one where Brown stays a TUC?  If so, care to share?

[calgARI '07]

[Q]Tub(a) Wrote:

 Here's a great scenario (slightly adapted from Mike's prediction):

    *  CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
    * CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
    * ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate.
    * ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
    * ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
    * ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Vermont.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.
    * Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston University.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
    * WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver.
    * WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac.

This would put us at 2, and the bracket would look like:

Worcester

Cornell
BU
NoDak
Bemidji

Not only do we get Eastern NHL Ice, but that is a pretty good set of opponents. One can dream...[/q]


That one is really really good and I think somewhat realistic after BC lost Eaves for the weekend.

[jkahn]

[Q]Ken '70 Wrote:

 In every yatc scenario I've run Brown drops from TUC.  Has anybody run one where Brown stays a TUC?  If so, care to share?[/q]

Colgate would have to win the tournament for Brown to stay a TUC, as Brown played Colgate four times.  I've run a few like that where Brown ends up at .5001. If we don't win it all in Albany, it would help our TUC record if Colgate did.

[jkahn]

Here's a scenario where we lose the final in Albany but still get a #1 seed (done with 3/2/1 bonus):
Keys to getting good results are Colgate winning, thus keeping Brown a TUC, and BC losing on Friday.  Both help flip our comparison with BC, which moves us ahead of Minnesota.
*  CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.                  
* CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State.                  
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.                  
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha.                  
* CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.                  
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha.                  
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.                  
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.                  
* ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.                  
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Vermont.                  
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.                  
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.                  
* Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Maine.                  
* WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.                  
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.                  
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin.                  
* WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats Colorado College.                  
* WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota.                  
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.                  
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.                  
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.                  
                  
1t   Colorado College (CC)   27   .5965*         
1t   [AQ] Denver (DU)   27   .5937*         
3   Boston College (BC)   26   .5818         
4   Cornell (Cr)   25   .5819         
5   Minnesota (Mn)   24   .5734         
6t   [AQ] Michigan (Mi)   23   .5817*         
6t   [AQ] New Hampshire (NH)   23   .5763         
8t   Boston University (BU)   20   .5683         
8t   Harvard (Ha)   20   .5668         
10t   Wisconsin (Wi)   18   .5624         
10t   North Dakota (ND)   18   .5575         
12t   Maine (Me)   17   .5648         
12t   [AQ] Colgate (Cg)   17   .5562         
14t   Dartmouth (Da)   14   .5298*         
14t   Ohio State (OS)   14   .5510         
16t   Michigan State (MS)   12   .5408         
16t   Vermont (Vt)   12   .5369         
16t   Mass.-Lowell (ML)   12   .5395         
19   Northern Michigan (NM)   11   .5320         
20   Minnesota-Duluth (MD)   9   .5091         
21   Northeastern (NE)   8   .5390         
22   Minnesota State (Mk)   7   .5162         
23   [AQ] Bemidji State (BS)   6   .5173         
24t   Alabama-Huntsville (AH)   4   .5044         
24t   St. Cloud State (SC)   4   .5043         
26t   St. Lawrence (SL)   3   .5074         
26t   Nebraska-Omaha (NO)   3   .5040         
28   [AQ] Quinnipiac (Qn)   2   .4738         
29   Brown (Bn)   0   .5001      

   

[DeltaOne81]

The only issue with that scenario is its very bonus dependent. Look, we're 0.0001 ahead of  BC in RPI, which is what determines the comparison. If the bonuses differ much at all, it doesn't work.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

But how do we get Worcester?  Ithaca is closer to Amherst.

[Tub(a)]

[Q]Jeff Hopkins '82 Wrote:

 But how do we get Worcester?  Ithaca is closer to Amherst.[/q]

Well, I assume they would count them roughly the same (like Worcester and Providence). Competitive equity is perfect with BU, UND, and Bemidji (2,7,10,15) and BU needs to stay in Worcester.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Possible.  I guess it depends on the Committee's priorities, and how much flexibility they take in interpreting "absolute" rules.  ::rolleyes::

Gotta admit I'd love to see it.

[DeltaOne81]

As has been discussed, the committee considered Worcester and Providence equidistant to Ithaca for the sake of competitive equity last time (last time for us that is, 2003), so if it didn't really hurt anyone, I wouldn't be that surprised by that.

[Chris 02]

Here's a crazy scenario.  It has the EZAC getting 5 teams and WCHA and HEA only getting 4 (all other conferences get 1)!

CCHA Play-in #2: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Consolation game: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Ohio State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Cornell.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Vermont.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Bentley defeats Quinnipiac.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Mercyhurst.


It's really close in the 13-14-15 slots as Dartmouth, Vermont, and Wisconsin all have the same number of comparisons.  However, both Dartmouth and Vermont win the individual comparison over Wisconsin so I believe that breaks the tie.