Opponent and other news and results 2025-2026

[BearLover]

The relevant question is: provided we get swept by Harvard, which teams behind us in the NPI would catch us by losing in their league's championship game? I think UMass and UConn would, but what about Augustana? BC?

I seriously doubt we get swept by Harvard. That's an area of hypotheticals that I'm not even thinking about.

(Besides, only one of UMass/UConn/BC can lose the HEA championship.)

Right, but getting swept by Harvard is the only set of hypotheticals where we miss the NCAAs.

It's gotta be like. Get swept by Harvard, you need basically every conference to have an autobid winner too, and probably some fuckery with Hockey East brackets and losses too.

Thus my question. Assuming 1-12 are locks besides us, how many other teams can pass us in the NPI without winning their tournaments? UMass or UConn presumably yes, but not sure about BC or Augustana.

For example, if UMass loses to UConn in HE final, that's two bids swiped. CCHA winner is another bid swiped. Atlantic Hockey is another. That would mean we can't afford an automatic qualifier from ECAC/B10, and also we can't afford for Augustana to pass us in NPI.

[andyw2100]

The relevant question is: provided we get swept by Harvard, which teams behind us in the NPI would catch us by losing in their league's championship game? I think UMass and UConn would, but what about Augustana? BC?

I seriously doubt we get swept by Harvard. That's an area of hypotheticals that I'm not even thinking about.

(Besides, only one of UMass/UConn/BC can lose the HEA championship.)

Right, but getting swept by Harvard is the only set of hypotheticals where we miss the NCAAs.

It's gotta be like. Get swept by Harvard, you need basically every conference to have an autobid winner too, and probably some fuckery with Hockey East brackets and losses too.

Thus my question. Assuming 1-12 are locks besides us, how many other teams can pass us in the NPI without winning their tournaments? UMass or UConn presumably yes, but not sure about BC or Augustana.

For example, if UMass loses to UConn in HE final, that's two bids swiped. CCHA winner is another bid swiped. Atlantic Hockey is another. That would mean we can't afford an automatic qualifier from ECAC/B10, and also we can't afford for Augustana to pass us in NPI.

I appreciate the exercise you are going through. I must say, though,  as an optimist to your pessimist it has made me think about us being swept by Harvard more than I ever would have.

So how about looking at the other side of things...

If we win out how high are we likely to climb? Would a 2-seed (top eight) be pretty much assured? What if we only make it to the final game, but lose in the finals?

Optimistic minds want to know...

[stereax]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

[RichH]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

Often in places like Clarkson, students get into regular season games for free, but for the first rounds of the playoffs, the leagues mandate charging for tickets. Kids say "eff that" and stay home. This round typically has woeful attendances at smaller Eastern schools despite "playoffs."

I don't know if that's the case at Vermont.

Edit: it's also a Wednesday night and fans who might come from farther away decide to skip so they can work in the morning.

[stereax]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

Often in places like Clarkson, students get into regular season games for free, but for the first rounds of the playoffs, the leagues mandate charging for tickets. Kids say "eff that" and stay home. This round typically has woeful attendances at smaller Eastern schools despite "playoffs."

I don't know if that's the case at Vermont.

It's at BU.

[RichH]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

Often in places like Clarkson, students get into regular season games for free, but for the first rounds of the playoffs, the leagues mandate charging for tickets. Kids say "eff that" and stay home. This round typically has woeful attendances at smaller Eastern schools despite "playoffs."

I don't know if that's the case at Vermont.

It's at BU.

Ah, sorry. I assumed by your ordering of the teams that it was at Burlington.

Welp, screw BU, and their lame fans too.

[stereax]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

Often in places like Clarkson, students get into regular season games for free, but for the first rounds of the playoffs, the leagues mandate charging for tickets. Kids say "eff that" and stay home. This round typically has woeful attendances at smaller Eastern schools despite "playoffs."

I don't know if that's the case at Vermont.

It's at BU.

Ah, sorry. I assumed by your ordering of the teams that it was at Burlington.

Welp, screw BU, and their lame fans too.

Sorry 😅

BU is up 1-0 exiting the first... interestingly, Boisvert is a healthy scratch.

[stereax]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

Often in places like Clarkson, students get into regular season games for free, but for the first rounds of the playoffs, the leagues mandate charging for tickets. Kids say "eff that" and stay home. This round typically has woeful attendances at smaller Eastern schools despite "playoffs."

I don't know if that's the case at Vermont.

It's at BU.

Ah, sorry. I assumed by your ordering of the teams that it was at Burlington.

Welp, screw BU, and their lame fans too.

Sorry 😅

BU is up 1-0 exiting the first... interestingly, Boisvert is a healthy scratch.

Announcers just mentioned the students are on break, which could explain the lack of people there. They compare it to a 1 pm regional or a Beanpot third place game. (Of course.)

Also, a Top Ten Cole Hutson Defensive Play makes it 1-1.

[Beeeej]

or a Beanpot third place game. (Of course.)

...aka, the "Harvard Cup."

[stereax]

or a Beanpot third place game. (Of course.)

...aka, the "Harvard Cup."

Crimson Invitational.

[adamw]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

This gets brought up every year - and because I'm old, I've answered this question a hundred times...

- every arena in the country goes through the same thing in playoffs
- most places it's spring break
- tickets are more expensive and not part of the initial package, meaning you have to plan to buy more on short notice.

It's one of the reasons Hockey East - and other leagues - went away from series. Winds up being a money loser to play more games.

(BU's basketball team is also playing in its league championship game tonight)

[stereax]

Watching the BU-UVM playoff game and wow this place is empty. What the hell?

This gets brought up every year - and because I'm old, I've answered this question a hundred times...

- every arena in the country goes through the same thing in playoffs
- most places it's spring break
- tickets are more expensive and not part of the initial package, meaning you have to plan to buy more on short notice.

It's one of the reasons Hockey East - and other leagues - went away from series. Winds up being a money loser to play more games.

(BU's basketball team is also playing in its league championship game tonight)

That tracks. Annoying as hell. Weird because it feels like at Lynah, we get MORE people for playoffs...

Relatedly, BU wins, 4-1.
Merrimack is leading Lowell 4-1, Northeastern is leading UNH 5-3. Michigan predictably beating on Notre Dame. Penn State leading Minnesota. Ohio State is leading Wisconsin, which is great for us.

[stereax]

Interesting graphic on the UNH-NEU feed:

[andyw2100]

So how about looking at the other side of things...

If we win out how high are we likely to climb? Would a 2-seed (top eight) be pretty much assured? What if we only make it to the final game, but lose in the finals?

Optimistic minds want to know...

In the McNally mailbag article that Stereax linked to, McNally wrote:

"And hey, if Cornell plays its cards right and wins out, and some other dominoes fall, the Red could even inch up to a No. 2 seed — then we could be having a different conversation. Cornell has a 36% chance of shifting up from a No. 3 seed to a No. 2, per College Hockey News."

I couldn't find it directly on the CHN site, but a Google search indicates CHN has Cornell at 22% to win out.

I have to think that if we are 36% to be a two seed - 9%, 8%, 6%, 12%,  for finishing 5,6,7,8 respectively in NPI (guessing rounding accounts for the 36% McNally reported vs. the 35% the numbers in the matrix add up to) - then winning out through and including the championship game probably puts us pretty solidly at 8 or higher.

Edit: I found the 22% on the CHN site. It is in the same probability matrix I pulled the top 8 NPI percentages from. They have columns for IN, At Large, and Automatic Qualifier (winning the league tournament.) They show Cornell at 99.4% IN, 78% AL, and 22% AQ.

(Really useful stuff on CHN, Adam! Thank you!)

[stereax]

So how about looking at the other side of things...

If we win out how high are we likely to climb? Would a 2-seed (top eight) be pretty much assured? What if we only make it to the final game, but lose in the finals?

Optimistic minds want to know...

In the McNally mailbag article that Stereax linked to, McNally wrote:

"And hey, if Cornell plays its cards right and wins out, and some other dominoes fall, the Red could even inch up to a No. 2 seed — then we could be having a different conversation. Cornell has a 36% chance of shifting up from a No. 3 seed to a No. 2, per College Hockey News."

I couldn't find it directly on the CHN site, but a Google search indicates CHN has Cornell at 22% to win out.

I have to think that if we are 36% to be a two seed - 9%, 8%, 6%, 12%,  for finishing 5,6,7,8 respectively in NPI (guessing rounding accounts for the 36% McNally reported vs. the 35% the numbers in the matrix add up to) - then winning out through and including the championship game probably puts us pretty solidly at 8 or higher.

Edit: I found the 22% on the CHN site. It is in the same probability matrix I pulled the top 8 NPI percentages from. They have columns for IN, At Large, and Automatic Qualifier (winning the league tournament.) They show Cornell at 99.4% IN, 78% AL, and 22% AQ.

(Really useful stuff on CHN, Adam! Thank you!)

Being a 2 seed would be AWESOME. Hopefully we pull it off.