Everyone else could finish... (ECAC Perms)

[Give My Regards]

Because you asked for it (well, one of you did anyway), it's this year's ECAC Playoff Permutations!

First, in brief:

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):

Quinnipiac     1-2    (1)
Clarkson       1-3    (2)
Union          2-6    (3)
Colgate        2-6    (3)
Dartmouth      3-7    (5)
Cornell        3-7    (6)
Harvard        5-8    (7)
Brown          7-9    (7)
Rensselaer     8-12   (9)
Princeton      9-12   (10)
Yale           9-12   (11)
St. Lawrence   9-12   (11)

[Give My Regards]

And now the long-form:

Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
team in the ECAC could finish.  For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:

THIS WEEK:  The team's games this week, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Colgate wins the
     head-to-head points tiebreaker against Dartmouth 5-1; however, in a
     four-way tie involving these two, Union, and Cornell, Colgate would
     actually be seeded lower than Dartmouth.  If a listed tiebreaker result
     depends on more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with
     an asterisk:

          Colgate could win or lose* against Dartmouth

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
     such as in tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
3.   Comparison of points against top four teams.
4.   Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5.   Goal differential head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against top four teams.
7.   Goal differential against top eight teams.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
remaining ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.

Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:


Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEK:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up first with two points against Clarkson or a
     regulation win over St. Lawrence.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to second if they get swept in regulation and
     Clarkson gets at least one point against Princeton.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Clarkson.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEK:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes second with one point this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish first with two regulation wins if Quinnipiac
     gets no more than two points against St. Lawrence.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to third with two regulation losses if the Colgate-
     Union game has a regulation winner and that team wins its other game in
     regulation. (Couldn't figure out how to say "regulation" a fourth time
     in that sentence)
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac, Union, and Colgate.

Union:
     THIS WEEK:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches third by beating Colgate in regulation.
     BEST CASE:  Gets second with six points if Clarkson loses both their
     games in regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up in sixth with a pair of losses in regulation if
     Dartmouth gets at least five points and Cornell gets at least two
     against Rensselaer.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Clarkson and Dartmouth; could win or lose against
     Colgate and Cornell.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEK:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Beating Union in regulation gives the Raiders third.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to second with a regulation sweep if Clarkson gets no
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Would fall to sixth if they are swept in regulation and
     Dartmouth and Cornell get at least five points each.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell; loses to Clarkson; could win or lose
     against Union; could win or lose* against Dartmouth.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEK:  At Brown, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees fifth with two regulation wins.
     BEST CASE:  Wraps up third with a regulation sweep if Union gets two
     points against Colgate and loses in regulation to Cornell, and Colgate
     also loses to Rensselaer in regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up seventh with a pair of regulation losses if Cornell
     gets at least one point and Harvard gets two regulation wins.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union, Cornell, and Harvard; could win* or lose
     against Colgate.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEK:  At Union, at Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches sixth with one point on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Would rise to third with a regulation sweep if Dartmouth
     does not get six points, Union ties Colgate and wins the shootout, and
     Colgate gets zero points against Rensselaer.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to seventh if they lose twice in regulation and
     Harvard gets six points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; loses to Colgate and Dartmouth; could win
     or lose against Union.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEK:  At Yale, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Gets seventh by beating Brown in regulation.
     BEST CASE:  Takes fifth with two regulation wins if neither Dartmouth
     nor Cornell get any points.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth if they lose to Brown in regulation and
     Brown also gets a regulation win against Dartmouth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; loses to Dartmouth and Cornell; could
     win or lose against Brown.   

Brown:
     THIS WEEK:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A pair of regulation wins would give the Bears seventh
     place.
     BEST CASE:  Seventh.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to ninth if they get swept in regulation and
     Rensselaer picks up at least four points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Princeton; loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose
     against Harvard.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEK:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can wrap up ninth with a regulation win plus one more
     point on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Would take eighth if they win twice in regulation and Brown
     gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to twelfth with two regulation losses if Princeton
     gets three points and Yale and St. Lawrence each get five.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown and Yale; loses to Harvard; could win or lose
     against Princeton and St. Lawrence.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEK:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches tenth with a regulation win over St. Lawrence
     and at least one point against Clarkson.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs up to ninth if they sweep in regulation and
     Rensselaer gets no more than three points.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish twelfth with two regulation losses if Yale
     gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Brown; could win or lose against Rensselaer;
     could win or lose* against Yale; could win* or lose against St.
     Lawrence.

Yale:
     THIS WEEK:  Harvard, Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes eleventh with a pair of regulation wins.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to ninth if they sweep in regulation, Princeton gets
     no more than two points, and Rensselaer gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Two regulation losses would drop them to twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Rensselaer; could win* or
     lose against Princeton.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEK:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep in regulation would wrap up eleventh place.
     BEST CASE:  Gets ninth if they win twice in regulation, Yale does not
     get six points, and Rensselaer gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth with a pair of regulation losses.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Rensselaer; could
     win or lose* against Princeton.

[upprdeck]

best case is Colg/Union/Dart all lose friday so Sat can be hopeful

[Trotsky]

TBH those are 3 teams I don't mind losing any weekend.

[Trotsky]

Because you know you want it:

Odds by place:

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 3 <1%
 4 14
 5 23
 6 58
 7  5


Odds in ECAC Tournament:

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Second Round 79%
Semifinalist 38
Finalist     17
Champion      8


[Snowball]

Can we get a bet on Polymarket going?

[Give My Regards]

Odds by place:

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 3 <1%


[BearLover]

The brawl really cost Cornell. Pretty likely we win the following game against StL if everyone is eligible to play, in which case we are in the driver's seat for a bye.

[upprdeck]

The brawl is why while standing up for teammates is great, the big picture also matters