Men's Lax Tournament 2024

[billhoward]

Info is as of the end of the regular season and all the 4/27 games.

IVY LEAGUE MEN'S LACROSSE TOURNAMENT
At Cornell (School of #1 Seed)
Semifinals, Friday, May 3
1 seed Cornell vs. 4 Penn, 8:30
2 seed Princeton vs. 3 Yale, 6 pm
Final, Sunday, May 5
Title game, 1 pm
No third-place game
Ticket info
"Coming soon" says the ILT site. Cornell ticket site now active: https://cornellbigred.com/news/2024/4/29/mens-lacrosse-ivy-tournament-tickets-on-sale-now.aspx
All games (Tournament Package): Adults $20, Kids 12 and under $10
Friday (2 games): $15, kids $10
Sunday (1 game): $10, kids ("14 and under" (typo? Sunday rule?) $5
Free: participating team students (Columbia had it "Ivy students last year" ), children 2 and under
 
Weather in Ithaca as of Tuesday 4/30
Friday: Partly sunny, high 75  
Saturday: rain, 62
Sunday: rain, 58 (had been "partly cloudy, high 64 as of 4/27)

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[b]Final Ivy League Standings, 2024
SCHOOL        CONF CPCT. OVERALL PCT. STREAK  WINS OVER 4-2 TEAMS[/b][b][color=#CC0066]
Cornell * 5-1 .833 9-4 .692 W2      Yale, Prin[/color][/b]
Princeton 4-2 .667 9-4 .692 W2      Yale, Penn
Yale *        4-2 .667 11-3 .786 L1      Penn  
Penn *        4-2 .667 8-5 .615 L1      
Harvard        2-4 .333 8-5 .615 W1
Brown        2-4 .333 3-11 .214 L2
Dartmouth 0-6 .000 3-10 .231 L7
*clinched 2024 Ivy League men's lacrosse tournament berth


* Most of this is irrelevant since Cornell won the RS title outright. It does apply to how 3 teams, all 4-2, wound up 2-Princeton, 3-Yale, 4-Penn.
* Cornell took itself out of the tiebreaker by going 5-1 not 4-2.
* Princeton beat both Yale and Penn, gets second seed.
* Yale beat Penn, gets third seed.
* Penn win over Cornell was over a 5-1 not 4-2 team.  


Info on the Ivy League Lacrosse Tournament as of 4/23 heading into the final weekend of play. Who gets in and where they might finish:

Cornell, Yale and Penn are in the tournament. It will be hosted by Cornell or Yale. It's likely to be Cornell, Yale, Penn, probably Princeton. Brown has an outside chance at the 4-seed if 2-3 Brown>Harvard and Yale>3-2 Princeton.

1T (Ivy standing 4/23). Cornell 4-1 Ivy at Dartmouth 0-5 4pm
If Cornell beats Dartmouth, Cornell hosts the ILT, at least ties for Ivy title.
Cornell hosts ILT if Cornell>Dartmouth and Yale>Princeton because Cornell won the C>Y H2H.  

1T. Yale 4-1 hosts Princeton 3-2, 12 noon
If Yale beats Princeton (and Cornell beats Dartmouth), both tie for the Ivy RS title at 5-1, Cornell hosts the ILT with its win over Yale Princeton.
If Princeton beats Yale, Princeton makes the ILT, Brown cannot. Princeton gets the 2-seed .  
If Princeton loses to Yale and Harvard beats Brown, Princeton gets in.
If Princeton loses to Yale and Brown beats Harvard, both finish 3-3, Brown gets in.
Princeton can be anywhere from the 2-seed to not-in-ILT.

3. Penn, 4-2, season finished.
Has a win over Cornell, losses to Yale and Princeton. All other W's against the bottom 3 teams.
Penn is in the tournament.

5. Brown 2-3 at 6 Harvard 1-4, 3:30 pm
Brown gets in if a) Yale beats 3-2 Princeton and b) Brown beats Harvard, then Brown gets the 4-seed and likely plays Cornell. I.e., Brown needs 2 things to go right to make the show, Princeton only needs 1. Brown took Maryland to OT early season, but just lost 10-7 to Bryant Tuesday.
Note Brown is much lower in RPI (38) than Harvard (19). Harvard is ranked in the polls, Brown is not.

7. Dartmouth 0-5 hosts Cornell
Can only play the spoiler (possibly keep Cornell from Ivy RS crown). Won't make the tournament.  

Standings and H2H Comparisons

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   [b]Team      Ivy  Overall  RPI[/b]
1. Yale      4-1  11-2     10
2. Cornell   4-1   8-4      8
3. Penn      4-2   8-5     12
4. Princeton 3-2   8-4     15
5. Brown     2-3   3-9     38
6. Harvard   1-4   7-5     19
7. Dartmouth 0-5   3-9     60

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[b]Head-to-Head Comparisons to break ties[/b]
Versus Ya Co Pe Pr Br Ha Da
1 Yale      4-1  – L W W W W
1 Cornell   4-1  W – L W W W
3 Penn      4-2  L W – L W W W
4 Princeton 3-2     L W – L W       W
5 Brown    2-3  L L L W – W
Harvard    1-4  L L L L – W
Dartmouth   0-5  L   L L L L –
For seeding:
* Overall Ivy record
* H2H between 2 tied teams or  
* Cumulative H2H among 3+ tied teams
* (Once high seed determined) H2H among remaining tied teams
* If still ties, drop down to record against next team lower
This is complex, the long form is here: rules in full

Best outcome for Cornell:
Cornell > Dartmouth, Cornell wins Ivy League RS title. Odds: likely
Yale > Princeton, Yale & Cornell finish 4-1, Cornell wins ILT top seed. Odds: tossup
Brown > Harvard, Brown and Princeton finish 3-3, Brown wins H2H, gets 4-seed, plays 1-seed. Odds: iffy, Brown has better Ivy record, Harvard has higher RPI.


Information below posted first week of April

Thinking about Cornell's chances for hosting the 2024 Ivy League lacrosse tournament the first weekend in May. It goes to the school with the best record. If there's a tie, it goes to the team with the best combined record against the others tied for first. So that one-goal Cornell loss to Penn is an issue. With Ivy 3 games left for Penn, Yale, Princeton and Cornell, 4 left for Harvard, Dartmouth and Brown, the league as of March 31 stands:

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[b]Team      W-L   Ivy Games To Play
                Apr 6    Apr 13     Apr 20     Apr 27       Outcomes[/b]
Penn      3-0   @Yale    Harvard    @Princeton              Y12-P09  P15-H12
Yale      2-1   Penn     @Dartmouth             Princeton   Y12-P09  Y20-D13
Princeton 2-1            Brown      Penn        @Yale       -------  D13-P12  
Cornell   2-1   Brown               Harvard     @Dartmouth  C14-B08  -------
Harvard   0-2   Dart     @Penn      @Cornell    Brown       H13-D08  
Dartmouth 0-2   @Harv    Yale       @Brown      Cornell
Brown     0-2   @Cornell Princeton  Dartmouth   @Harvard

Penn has the toughest Ivy schedule: Yale and Princeton on the road bookending a home game against Harvard (0-2 Ivy but 6-3 overall). Cornell has the easiest: the three 0-2 teams. If Yale or Princeton (or Harvard?) beats Penn, the likely multi-way tie favors Cornell. All four are 10-15 in the polls; on RPI Cornell is #7 (Syracuse game included) and PYP are 10-15 (Harvard is 17).

Penn has beaten Duke, Delaware and North Carolina but lost 12-7 to St. Joseph's and only beat Dartmouth by 3. After which they won the 2-OT Cornell game.

Good scenario for Cornell: Cornell wins out in the Ivies. Yale or Princeton beats Penn. Or both. Penn finishes with 2 or 3 losses, Cornell wins the H2H with Yale or Princeton, hosts the tournament.

Bad scenario for Cornell:
* Cornell wins out but so does Penn, the winner of the Princeton-Yale finale loses one other game, Penn wins the H2H.
* Cornell loses a second Ivy game. Unthinkable when the last 3 IL games are against the worst three Ivy teams. But ...
We need for Penn to lose a second game or there to be more than a Penn-Cornell one-loss tie for first.
I believe those are the scenarios.


The 2024 rules in full. The key parts here:

Men's Lacrosse Tournament Tiebreakers
[updated per coach group decision prior to 2023 season]

1. In the case of two-way ties between teams in the final standings, the higher seed will be determined on the basis of head-to-head competition.

2.   In the case of a multiple ties (more than two teams with the same record), the following procedure will be used:
The highest seed will go to the team with the best cumulative record against all other teams tied at that spot. (If multiple teams are tied with the same record, the tie between those teams will be broken on the basis of cumulative record against each other)
Once a highest seed(s) (amongst the tied teams) is determined, the initial tie is broken. The tie between the remaining teams will be determined on the basis of cumulative record against all other remaining teams tied at that spot.
This procedure will be repeated until all possible ties are broken. (If there are remaining unbroken ties within the group, the remaining tied teams move on to step 3.)

3.   In the case of a multiple team tie that cannot be broken on the basis of review of cumulative record:
The highest seed will go to the team that has beaten the highest seeded team outside of the tie and continuing through the full league standings (If multiple teams have beaten the highest seeded team outside of the tie, the tie between those teams will be broken on the basis of cumulative record against each other).
Once a highest seed(s) (amongst the tied teams) is determined, the initial tie is broken. The tie between the remaining teams shall be determined on the basis of cumulative record against all other remaining teams tied at that spot.
This procedure will be completed until all possible ties are broken. (If there remaining unbroken ties within the group, the remaining tied teams move on to step 4.) ...

[dbilmes]

I wouldn't label Harvard as a bad team. Its two Ivy losses are to Yale (on the road) and Princeton. They beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and just lost a close game to Virginia on the road. I saw them play at Yale last month and they have an explosive offense. Based upon our poor defense this season, they could beat us in another high-scoring game.

[billhoward]

Yes, Harvard is the team that could make us a 4-2 Ivy team. And you need a strong arm to land fish on the playing surface.

[nshapiro]

Thinking about Cornell's chances for hosting the 2024 Ivy League lacrosse tournament the first weekend in May. It goes to the school with the best record. If there's a tie, it goes to the team with the best combined record against the others tied for first. So that one-goal Cornell loss to Penn is an issue. With Ivy 3 games left for Penn, Yale, Princeton and Cornell, 4 left for Harvard, Dartmouth and Brown, the league as of March 31 stands:

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[b]Team      W-L   Ivy Games To Play
                Apr 6    Apr 13     Apr 20     Apr 27[/b]
Penn      3-0   @Yale    Harvard    @Princeton
Yale      2-1   Penn     @Dartmouth             Princeton
Princeton 2-1            Brown      Penn        @Yale
Cornell   2-1   Brown               Harvard     @Dartmouth
Harvard   0-2   Dart     @Penn      @Cornell    Brown
Dartmouth 0-2   @Harv    Yale       @Brown      Cornell
Brown     0-2   @Cornell Princeton  Dartmouth   @Harvard

Penn has the toughest Ivy schedule: Yale and Princeton on the road bookending a home game against Harvard (0-2 Ivy but 6-3 overall). Cornell has the easiest: the three 0-2 teams. If Yale or Princeton (or Harvard?) beats Penn, the likely multi-way tie favors Cornell. All four are 10-15 in the polls; on RPI Cornell is #7 (Syracuse game included) and PYP are 10-15 (Harvard is 17).

Penn has beaten Duke, Delaware and North Carolina but lost 12-7 to St. Joseph's and only beat Dartmouth by 3. After which they won the 2-OT Cornell game.

Good scenario for Cornell: Cornell wins out in the Ivies. Yale or Princeton beats Penn. Or both. Penn finishes with 2 or 3 losses, Cornell wins the H2H with Yale or Princeton, hosts the tournament.

Bad scenario for Cornell:
* Cornell wins out but so does Penn, the winner of the Princeton-Yale finale loses one other game, Penn wins the H2H.
* Cornell loses a second Ivy game. Unthinkable when the last 3 IL games are against the worst three Ivy teams. But ...
We need for Penn to lose a second game or there to be more than a Penn-Cornell one-loss tie for first.
I believe those are the scenarios.


The 2024 rules in full. The key parts here:

Men's Lacrosse Tournament Tiebreakers
[updated per coach group decision prior to 2023 season]

1. In the case of two-way ties between teams in the final standings, the higher seed will be determined on the basis of head-to-head competition.

2.   In the case of a multiple ties (more than two teams with the same record), the following procedure will be used:
The highest seed will go to the team with the best cumulative record against all other teams tied at that spot. (If multiple teams are tied with the same record, the tie between those teams will be broken on the basis of cumulative record against each other)
Once a highest seed(s) (amongst the tied teams) is determined, the initial tie is broken. The tie between the remaining teams will be determined on the basis of cumulative record against all other remaining teams tied at that spot.
This procedure will be repeated until all possible ties are broken. (If there are remaining unbroken ties within the group, the remaining tied teams move on to step 3.)

3.   In the case of a multiple team tie that cannot be broken on the basis of review of cumulative record:
The highest seed will go to the team that has beaten the highest seeded team outside of the tie and continuing through the full league standings (If multiple teams have beaten the highest seeded team outside of the tie, the tie between those teams will be broken on the basis of cumulative record against each other).
Once a highest seed(s) (amongst the tied teams) is determined, the initial tie is broken. The tie between the remaining teams shall be determined on the basis of cumulative record against all other remaining teams tied at that spot.
This procedure will be completed until all possible ties are broken. (If there remaining unbroken ties within the group, the remaining tied teams move on to step 4.) ...

I think you need to include:


4.   If a tie still persists, add the goals for and against in the games between the tied teams. The team (s) with the greatest goal differential gets highest seed (6-goal maximum differential per game). (If a tie persists in which multiple teams have the same greatest goal differentials, the tie between those teams will be broken on the basis of cumulative record against each other). Once a highest seed (amongst the tied teams) is determined, the remaining seeds will be determined on the basis of cumulative record against each other.
 

Because if Yale beats Penn and Cornell/Yale/Penn all finish 5-1 in the Ivies, this will be the rule that is needed...
So Cornell would need a Yale win by 5 or fewer goals to win on this criterion.


Also, UNC beat Penn

[mike1960]

Just win.

[nshapiro]

nah. Time to start rooting for Penn to keep it close, currently they are down 12-8 with 7 minutes left

[RichH]

nah. Time to start rooting for Penn to keep it close, currently they are down 12-8 with 7 minutes left

12-9 final

[nshapiro]

And I believe that winning the last two Ivy league games gets Cornell #1 seed in the tournament

[billhoward]

And I believe that winning the last two Ivy league games gets Cornell #1 seed in the tournament

In a scenario where Penn and Cornell finish at 1 loss, everyone else has 2 losses, Cornell loses the H2H. Among the one-loss teams, Yale or Princeton will have one more loss on the final weekend (because they play each other). Ditto Penn or Princeton the weekend before, same reason. I believe the just-win-out scenario for Cornell works only if Penn loses one more Ivy game, hosting Harvard next weekend or at Princeton April 20.

Ivy lax standings 4/6/24 before after Harvard plays (likely beats) Dartmouth. Overall, the top five teams all have 7 wins overall.

[nshapiro]

And I believe that winning the last two Ivy league games gets Cornell #1 seed in the tournament

In a scenario where Penn and Cornell finish at 1 loss, everyone else has 2 losses, Cornell loses the H2H. Among the one-loss teams, Yale or Princeton will have one more loss on the final weekend (because they play each other). Ditto Penn or Princeton the weekend before, same reason. I believe the just-win-out scenario for Cornell works only if Penn loses one more Ivy game, hosting Harvard next weekend or at Princeton April 20.

Ivy lax standings 4/6/24 before after Harvard plays (likely beats) Dartmouth. Overall, the top five teams all have 7 wins overall.

True....
Unless Cornell Penn and Yale all win out, Cornell would win the tie break

[ugarte]

And I believe that winning the last two Ivy league games gets Cornell #1 seed in the tournament

In a scenario where Penn and Cornell finish at 1 loss, everyone else has 2 losses, Cornell loses the H2H. Among the one-loss teams, Yale or Princeton will have one more loss on the final weekend (because they play each other). Ditto Penn or Princeton the weekend before, same reason. I believe the just-win-out scenario for Cornell works only if Penn loses one more Ivy game, hosting Harvard next weekend or at Princeton April 20.

Ivy lax standings 4/6/24 before after Harvard plays (likely beats) Dartmouth. Overall, the top five teams all have 7 wins overall.

True....
Unless Cornell Penn and Yale all win out, Cornell would win the tie break

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[b]Team      W-L   Ivy Games To Play
                Apr 13     Apr 20     Apr 27[/b]
Penn      3-1   Harvard    @Princeton
Yale      3-1   @Dartmouth             Princeton
Cornell   3-1              Harvard     @Dartmouth
Princeton 2-1   Brown      Penn        @Yale


nshapiro is right: Penn, Cornell and Yale winning out is good for us. We lose H2H with Penn, win H2H with Yale and win the three way tie based on goal differential among three teams that are 1-1 against each other and have beaten whoever is in 4th place. We are +2, Yale is at 0 and Penn is -2.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

One last thought for completeness.  If both Cornell and Princeton win out, we win the H2H with Princeton.

[billhoward]

One last thought for completeness.  If both Cornell and Princeton win out, we win the H2H with Princeton.

Princeton winning out means they beat Penn 4/20 and Yale 4/27.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

One last thought for completeness.  If both Cornell and Princeton win out, we win the H2H with Princeton.

Princeton winning out means they beat Penn 4/20 and Yale 4/27.

Right, but we'd both have have one loss, which means we win the tie-breaker.

Just a different tie scenario to be considered.

[billhoward]

Wish I'd taking more courses on statistics and probabilities. I wish we'd gotten the OT goal against Penn and then it'd be simple. I wish I was drinking buddies with Nate Silver. All roads not taken.