What happened to PWR this year?

Started by upprdeck, March 18, 2024, 01:12:24 PM

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upprdeck

March 18, 2024, 01:12:24 PM
IF Cornell wins game one and loses the finals you would have to go back over 20 yrs to find the one team that didn't make it with a PWR as high as Cornells would be. And that is the year Cornell was #1 in PWR?  Thats as far back  as the CHN site goes. Was that year 1 of it?

A few of those years the PWR could have gotten us a 2-3 seed.

Did parity cause this?

did the effect of the ties cause this? We had 6 of them, anyone of which puts us over the top.

Is it more teams around to spread the RPI out?

Dafatone

#1
March 18, 2024, 01:36:38 PM
It's been a really weird year. Our RPI would have us in comfortably any other year.

French Rage

#2
March 18, 2024, 01:47:36 PM
RPI or PWR?  We lose 14 comparisons, and are in 15th, so that's where the PWR would always have us.
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1

adamw

#3
March 18, 2024, 02:33:25 PM
Quote from: upprdeckIF Cornell wins game one and loses the finals you would have to go back over 20 yrs to find the one team that didn't make it with a PWR as high as Cornells would be. And that is the year Cornell was #1 in PWR?  Thats as far back  as the CHN site goes. Was that year 1 of it?

A few of those years the PWR could have gotten us a 2-3 seed.

Did parity cause this?

did the effect of the ties cause this? We had 6 of them, anyone of which puts us over the top.

Is it more teams around to spread the RPI out?

I'm not really understanding this comment. Can you explain? "Pairwise" or "RPI"?

Also RPI is generally higher at the top end this year, because there's so many new programs and other dreck at the bottom.
College Hockey News: http://www.collegehockeynews.com

Dafatone

#4
March 18, 2024, 02:39:57 PM
Quote from: adamw
Quote from: upprdeckIF Cornell wins game one and loses the finals you would have to go back over 20 yrs to find the one team that didn't make it with a PWR as high as Cornells would be. And that is the year Cornell was #1 in PWR?  Thats as far back  as the CHN site goes. Was that year 1 of it?

A few of those years the PWR could have gotten us a 2-3 seed.

Did parity cause this?

did the effect of the ties cause this? We had 6 of them, anyone of which puts us over the top.

Is it more teams around to spread the RPI out?

I'm not really understanding this comment. Can you explain? "Pairwise" or "RPI"?

Also RPI is generally higher at the top end this year, because there's so many new programs and other dreck at the bottom.

That makes sense as to an explanation why the top end of RPI is so high this year.

Although the good folks of Augustana University will have you know that they finished ahead of six ECAC teams in RPI this year.

arugula

#5
March 18, 2024, 02:47:32 PM
Also didn't help that UMD had a rough year.  It was assumed, at least by me, that UMD on the schedule would help our OOC and thus our RPI/PWR.  Not so much

adamw

#6
March 18, 2024, 02:51:17 PM
Quote from: arugulaAlso didn't help that UMD had a rough year.  It was assumed, at least by me, that UMD on the schedule would help our OOC and thus our RPI/PWR.  Not so much

Their top player was out most of the year - another good player was ruled academically ineligible - and their No. 1 goalie also got injured. They were definitely not helpful
College Hockey News: http://www.collegehockeynews.com

French Rage

#7
March 18, 2024, 03:20:09 PM
Didn't the ECAC also do poorly OOC this year?  That's going to hurt too.  We did well in conference but we would have needed a much better conference record to breeze into the NCAAs with that going against us.
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1

Dafatone

#8
March 18, 2024, 03:24:04 PM
Quote from: French RageDidn't the ECAC also do poorly OOC this year?  That's going to hurt too.  We did well in conference but we would have needed a much better conference record to breeze into the NCAAs with that going against us.

The ECAC does poorly OOC just about every year.

This year, they did really really poorly.

upprdeck

#9
March 18, 2024, 03:26:17 PM
This isn't so much about the ECAC doing poorly. It's about so many teams have such a higher RPI that something that hasn't happened in 20 yrs. is the reason Cornell has to win to get in.

upprdeck

#10
March 18, 2024, 03:30:38 PM
It really comes down to the top of the NCHC.  Omaha a 19-14 team played an 8-8 league season into a bid

they beat CC 4 of 5 and ND twice.

so they earned it, but the odds of going 6-1 against that schedule is pretty stacked.  even 4 wins and they are out.

Trotsky

#11
March 18, 2024, 09:00:14 PM
If lots of teams have much higher RPI does that mean lots have much lower RPI?  Are we just at record dispersion?

Is the net RPI of all teams always the same?  Does it self-normalize?

BearLover

#12
March 18, 2024, 09:57:45 PM
Quote from: arugulaAlso didn't help that UMD had a rough year.  It was assumed, at least by me, that UMD on the schedule would help our OOC and thus our RPI/PWR.  Not so much
If UMD had a good year they maybe would have beaten us...same for everybody else who had a bad year. Are the people on this forum bemoaning our SOS being poor claiming that our opponents were better than their records suggest? If so, then we got unlucky. If not, and the Yales and Duluths and the other opponents who had disappointing seasons actually were as bad as their record, then our RPI (and therefore our PWR) accurately reflects our accomplishments this season, and we have nothing to complain about.

OP is correct that something weird happened in the PWR this year. In every past season on record our RPI would have gotten us into the NCAAs. It's a shame because we had a really nice year. And yet, none of that ended up mattering. We need to beat Dartmouth and probably Quinnipiac to get in. We could have lost all our games 10-0 and still ended up in this exact spot. That's why the PWR situation is so frustrating: we played well, but it all amounted to nothing.

ugarte

#13
March 18, 2024, 10:14:39 PM
Quote from: BearLoverIf UMD had a good year they maybe would have beaten us...same for everybody else who had a bad year. Are the people on this forum bemoaning our SOS being poor claiming that our opponents were better than their records suggest?
You're misinterpreting what people are saying. At the time, when we beat Duluth, we felt based on past performance, that this would be hugely beneficial for us. Alas, UMD sucked for the rest of the year and the value of those wins diminished with it. It feels like bad luck because our early good vibes got frittered away by someone else. Then we got to frittering because I guess it looked fun?

Pghas

#14
March 18, 2024, 10:27:34 PM
Quote from: upprdeckThis isn't so much about the ECAC doing poorly. It's about so many teams have such a higher RPI that something that hasn't happened in 20 yrs. is the reason Cornell has to win to get in.

It's really all relative though.  The ECAC is super weak this year.  The next team after Cornell is Dartmouth and they are 30.  The other teams start to slot in around the mid 30s.  Last year Quinnipiac Harvard and Cornell were all top 13 and then Colgate was 25.  When there are more ECAC teams up higher, the lower ones really benefit from playing and beating or tying the higher ones.  This year Cornell pretty much was just playing all teams in the bottom 30, and had a slew of losses and ties to those teams - understandable because it's tough to always win.   They are a super young team so what they've done is impressive but sweeping Harvard this year just doesn't help much.  Weak schedule.
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