What happened to PWR this year?

[Dafatone]

Fair, but how is their record against top 20 teams, I ask, too lazy to look it up myself. I know they did really well against two of the top teams, but what about the rest. Meanwhile, we put up an extremely good record against top 20 teams. It feels vaguely unfair that a .500 record in 10 games against top teams is the same as a 1.000 record in 5 games against top teams.

I made those numbers up, and I'm not saying they're the same as Omaha and Cornell.

I'm fully on board that there's no good way to game it, and I'm not even saying it's unfair as is. Just sort of feeling my way through the numbers.

Omaha - record vs.

top 10  4-4 (1 OTW)
top 20  10-9-3 (3 OTW, 1 OTL)

Cornell ...

top 10  1-1
top 20  4-1-2 (2 OTW)

It's possible I missed some.
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/schedules/team/Omaha/37

Thanks! I appreciate the work.

[Robb]

We had 2 goal leads vs ASU 3 times and didnt hold them.
We had lead vs Umass
We had lead vs Clarkson

anyone of those probably is enough to get us in

Young team that didnt hold leads. Who knew.

We almost blew a 4 goal lead vs a Harvard team that cant score at all for some weird reason given they talent they have.

Does the reason rhyme with Schmonato?

[ugarte]

If UMD had a good year they maybe would have beaten us...same for everybody else who had a bad year. Are the people on this forum bemoaning our SOS being poor claiming that our opponents were better than their records suggest?

You're misinterpreting what people are saying. At the time, when we beat Duluth, we felt based on past performance, that this would be hugely beneficial for us. Alas, UMD sucked for the rest of the year and the value of those wins diminished with it. It feels like bad luck because our early good vibes got frittered away by someone else. Then we got to frittering because I guess it looked fun?

Well, sure, I get that. But it's a common trope for fans (of many teams) to blame their team's weak SOS for not making the NCAAs, without acknowledging that, if they played a harder schedule, they wouldn't have won as many games! If our opponents didn't largely suck this year, Cornell wouldn't have coasted to a bye, and it certainly wouldn't have gone 19-6-6 (which actually understates our record because we lost at least three games in 3x3 OT).

What cost us in the PWR this year wasn't our SOS. It was failing to protect leads versus ASU, blowing a lead versus Clarkson with under 30 seconds remaining, or any number of events we could point to.

There's one more factor to consider here. The quality win bonus.  RPI factors in SOS, opponents' SOS, and opponents' opponents' SOS.  Assuming it does so properly (big assumption!), then what you're talking about is already baked in. Good record versus decent schedule would be roughly equivalent to decent record versus strong schedule.

But the team with a strong schedule has more opportunities to snag bonus points through the quality win bonus. Like Omaha this year. Which doesn't seem fair if RPI accurately weighs opponent and opponent opponent strength in the first place (again, big assumption!).

Fair point. The QWB is usually so small that I discount it. You're right though that Omaha's is substantial. Unfortunately, CC's is even more substantial, and they're team we're closest to catching. If QWB didn't exist, would we catch them by losing in the ECAC final versus Quinnipiac? It sure looks like it: we would net .0049 RPI if QWB didn't exist, and if we lose ECAC final vs Quinnipiac we will be within .0049 RPI of CC. I think we would pass UMass as well, if they lose next round. So, to make this situation even more frustrating, the quality win bonus will cost us the NCAAs if we lose the ECAC final to Quinnipiac.

But if we do beat Quinnipiac it will be great for our QWB.

[ice]

Wins by BC, RIT, Denver and Michigan State will put Cornell at #12 in PWR.

[ER]

What if we had lost tonight?

[Iceberg]

What if we had lost tonight?

From what I've read there would've been no shot at an at-large as 14-16 would've been taken up by the AHA, CCHA, and SLU.

And as far as next week, it seems that a re-match with Denver is inevitable, although in the western regional this time

[BearLover]

What if we had lost tonight?

From what I've read there would've been no shot at an at-large as 14-16 would've been taken up by the AHA, CCHA, and SLU.

And as far as next week, it seems that a re-match with Denver is inevitable, although in the western regional this time

Better than having to play BU or BC.

[adamw]

What if we had lost tonight?

From what I've read there would've been no shot at an at-large as 14-16 would've been taken up by the AHA, CCHA, and SLU.

And as far as next week, it seems that a re-match with Denver is inevitable, although in the western regional this time

Not necessarily. Cornell could be a 3 seed still.

[ice]

There are 4 remaining games with a combined number of 16 possible outcomes (2^4).  Four of the winning combinations will move Cornell to #12.  The remaining twelve will leave Cornell at #13.    

The following combinations of wins will move Cornell to #12 in the PWR:

AI, BU, MS, D
RIT, BU, MS, D
AI, BC, MS, D
RIT, BC, MS, D

So wins by Michigan State and Denver are essential.

That would match Cornell up against #5 Maine (not taking into account geography).

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Near as I can figure, if Omaha beats Denver, CC gets the last at large.  If Denver beats Omaha, UMass gets it.

And if CC gets the last at large, they can't play Denver so we get Denver despite finishing 13th, probably in Sioux Falls.  CC goes to St.Louis to play MSU.

Now if UMass gets the last at large, they host in Springfield.  So BU gets sent west.  I suspect that to maintain bracket integrity, Denver would go to Springfield (that keeps 3 versus 14).  Either way we'd play Michigan State if we finish 13th.  

I came up with a combination with UMass that had NoDak in 5th and us in 13th,  In that case, I think the committee would put the 4-5 match of Michigan State vs NoDak in Sioux Falls (for attendance), which is where we'd end up.  In that event they'd send BU to St.Louis to play RIT.

[upprdeck]

but if a league has 5 teams they are allowed to play to maintain the brackets..

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

but if a league has 5 teams they are allowed to play to maintain the brackets..

I thought it was 6.

[upprdeck]

maybe,, I thought they said 5,

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

BC now up on BU 5-1 with 7 mins left.  You can take that one to the bank.

[kingpin248]

maybe,, I thought they said 5,

From adamw's update this morning:

Because five NCHC teams will make the NCAA Tournament, the Committee can, according its manual, allow those two teams to meet. But it has never done so before when five teams from the same conference made it. It has only done so once, when six WCHA teams made the field in 2008.