2023 ECAC Permutations

[Give My Regards]

TL;DR version first:

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):


Quinnipiac     1      (1)
Harvard        2-3    (2)
Cornell        2-3    (3)
Colgate        4-6    (4)
St. Lawrence   4-5    (5)
Clarkson       5-8    (6)
Princeton      6-9    (7)
Rennselaer     6-11   (7)
Union          6-11   (
Brown          8-12   (11)
Yale           8-12   (11)
Dartmouth     10-12   (12)

[Give My Regards]

And now the long-form version:

Once again, it's the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  Quinnipiac has made things
a little easier by locking up the top slot, and Harvard and Cornell will
finish second and third in some order.  Then, as they say on Gilligan's
Island, "and the rest."

Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
team in the ECAC could finish.  For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:

THIS WEEK:  The team's games this week, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Clarkson wins the
     head-to-head points tiebreaker against Colgate 4-2; however, in a
     three-way tie involving these two and St. Lawrence, Clarkson would
     actually be seeded lower than Colgate.  If a listed tiebreaker result
     depends on more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with
     an asterisk:

          Clarkson could win or lose* against Colgate

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
     such as in tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
3.   Comparison of points against top four teams.
4.   Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5.   Goal differential head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against top four teams.
7.   Goal differential against top eight teams.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
remaining ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:

Harvard:
     THIS WEEK:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with four points on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Second.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes third if they lose twice (in regulation) and
     Cornell picks up at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEK:  At Brown, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has wrapped up third and can do no better without help.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to second with a regulation sweep if Harvard gets no
     more than three points.
     WORST CASE:  Third.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Harvard.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEK:  At Yale, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Gets fourth by winning both games in regulation.
     BEST CASE:  Fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to sixth if they lose twice in regulation, Clarkson
     gets a regulation sweep, and St. Lawrence gets at least one point.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats St. Lawrence; could win* or lose against Clarkson.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEK:  Harvard, Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has clinched fifth and can do no better without help.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish fourth with a regulation sweep if Colgate does
     not get two wins in regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Fifth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson; loses to Colgate.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEK:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes sixth with two wins (not shootout wins).
     BEST CASE:  Clinches fifth with a regulation sweep if Colgate gets no
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to eighth if they get swept in regulation and
     either Rensselaer and Union both get two regulation wins, or Princeton
     defeats one of them and the other one sweeps in regulation.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; loses to St. Lawrence; could win or
     lose against Princeton; could win or lose* against Colgate; could win*
     or lose against Union.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEK:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Four points would guarantee seventh place.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to sixth with a pair of regulation wins if Clarkson
     gets no more than three points.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish ninth if they lose twice in regulation.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Clarkson, Rensselaer, and
     Union.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEK:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up seventh with a regulation sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes sixth with two regulation wins if Clarkson loses
     twice in regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to eleventh if they lose twice in regulation, Union
     gets at least one point, Brown gets at least four points, and Yale gets
     at least five.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale; loses to Clarkson and Brown; could win or
     lose against Princeton and Union.

Union:
     THIS WEEK:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Gets eighth with a pair of wins in regulation.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to sixth with a regulation sweep if Clarkson loses
     a pair in regulation and Rensselaer does not beat Princeton in
     regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Would fall to eleventh with two regulation losses if Brown
     gets at least four points and Yale gets at least five.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale; could win or lose against Princeton,
     Rensselaer, and Brown; could win or lose* against Clarkson.

Brown:
     THIS WEEK:  Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than eleventh without help.
     BEST CASE:  Wraps up eighth with a pair of wins in regulation if
     Rensselaer gets no more than two points, Union gets no more than one,
     and either Yale does not sweep in regulation or St. Lawrence does not
     finish fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they lose twice in regulation, Yale
     gets at least one point, and Dartmouth gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; loses to Dartmouth; could win or lose
     against Union and Yale.

Yale:
     THIS WEEK:  Colgate, Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than eleventh without help.
     BEST CASE:  Takes eighth with two regulation wins if Rensselaer and
     Union get no more than one point each and either Brown does not win two
     regulation games or St. Lawrence finishes fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up twelfth with two regulation losses if Dartmouth
     gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Rensselaer, Union, and Dartmouth; could win or
     lose against Brown.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEK:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
     BEST CASE:  Gets tenth with a regulation sweep if Brown and Yale get no
     more than three points each.
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown and Yale.

[French Rage]

Colgate has a higher ceiling and lower floor than SLU?

[Give My Regards]

It's a little odd, but it's because Colgate loses the tiebreaker with Clarkson and St. Lawrence wins it; thus, if they finish tied with the Knights, the Saints would win the tiebreaker and be seeded fifth, while Colgate in the same situation would be sixth.  (A three-way tie would put Colgate fourth, St. Lawrence fifth, and Clarkson sixth)

[Give My Regards]

Oops, double post.

[ursusminor]

How can both Brown and Yale do no better than 11th without help? Shouldn't one be able to get 10th without help?

[Give My Regards]

How can both Brown and Yale do no better than 11th without help? Shouldn't one be able to get 10th without help?

It's because of the top 4 tiebreaker.  If Brown and Yale both get two regulation wins, they'll still be tied in the standings.  They split head-to-head and would have the same number of league wins, so it goes to record against the top 4 in the league, which would be Quinnipiac, Harvard, Cornell, and either Colgate or St. Lawrence.  If it's Colgate, Brown wins the tiebreaker; if it's St. Lawrence, Yale does.

[ursusminor]

How can both Brown and Yale do no better than 11th without help? Shouldn't one be able to get 10th without help?

It's because of the top 4 tiebreaker.  If Brown and Yale both get two regulation wins, they'll still be tied in the standings.  They split head-to-head and would have the same number of league wins, so it goes to record against the top 4 in the league, which would be Quinnipiac, Harvard, Cornell, and either Colgate or St. Lawrence.  If it's Colgate, Brown wins the tiebreaker; if it's St. Lawrence, Yale does.

Thanks.

[billhoward]

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best seed the team can get with no help):
Quinnipiac     1      (1)
Harvard        2-3    (2)
Cornell        2-3    (3)
Colgate        4-6    (4)
St. Lawrence   4-5    (5)
Clarkson       5-8    (6)
Princeton      6-9    (7)
Rennselaer     6-11   (7)
Union          6-11   (
Brown          8-12   (11)
Yale           8-12   (11)
Dartmouth     10-12   (12)

I like that the standings and permutations of matchups suggest we'll have a beatable QF opponent (even if it's Clarkson), that we'll likely make it to Lake Placid, that somebody else will deal with Quinnipiac Friday in Lake Placid, that we have a 4 in 10 chance of making the ECAC finals (we just have to believe Harvard is beatable), and we are predicted to have a 90% chance of making the NCAAs. The only thing better is the unlikely odds somebody knocks out Harvard or Q in the quarterfinals and then we wouldn't see the survivor (Q and H shouldn't both lose) until the title game.

[Trotsky]

We clinched 3rd because SLU shat themselves.  We stay there unless (1) we beat Yale in regulation and (2) Harvard loses at Clarkson in regulation, in which case we finish 2nd.

[billhoward]

We clinched 3rd because SLU shat themselves.  We stay there unless (1) we beat Yale in regulation and (2) Harvard loses at Clarkson in regulation, in which case we finish 2nd.

One advantage of finishing second is, if for some reason, Quinnipiac loses in the quarters, a Cornell-Harvard likely matchup is Saturday night. But first, need to clear the quarterfinals hurdle. As a 2-3 matchup, we'd be in the 7:30 not 4:00 Friday game, more time to get to LP if you try to get in a half day of work Friday.

[Trotsky]

Q aint losing until Placid.  They aren't going to lose a best-of-three against at best the 8.

I am very hopeful we join Q and Harvard who I think are a lock to get to Placid.  The 4-slot is going to be a shitshow; could be anybody.

As of right now the 6 is Clarkson.  That is suboptimal.

[Scersk '97]

I am very hopeful we join Q and Harvard who I think are a lock to get to Placid.  The 4-slot is going to be a shitshow; could be anybody.

Disagree. If any team is ripe for a quarters upset, it's Harvard. I hope their habit of letting games slide to 3x3 overtime gets them booted, because their "special purpose" is gone in the playoffs.

Much greater likelihood of this, of course, if they find a way to lose to Clarkson tomorrow and we hold off the snowballing Bulldog juggernaut. Any of SLU, Clarkson, or Colgate would give Harvard fits.

[Trotsky]

Any of SLU, Clarkson, or Colgate would give Harvard fits.

Or us.

[Scersk '97]

Any of SLU, Clarkson, or Colgate would give Harvard fits.

Or us.

In the quarters. In the quarters!