2022 ECAC Permutations

[Give My Regards]

Gad, what a pain.  Well anyway, first the short version:

Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):


Quinnipiac     1-3    (1)
Clarkson       1-3    (2)
Harvard        1-3    (3)
Cornell        4-6    (4)
Colgate        4-7    (5)
Rensselaer     4-10   (6)
Princeton      5-12   (7)
Brown          6-12   (
Union          6-12   (10)
St. Lawrence   6-12   (9)
Dartmouth      7-12   (10)
Yale           6-12   (9)

[Give My Regards]

And now the War-and-Peace version:

Back after a one-year hiatus (like pretty much everything else in the
world), it's the ECAC Playoff Permutations!  As I've repeatedly shown, I'm a
complete nut-ball about figuring stuff like this out, and the adoption of
the three-point system with its regulation vs. overtime values, along with
the ever-popular shoot-out, has made this whole process even more enjoyable
than before.  (Take notes, class – that is what is known as "sarcasm".)  And
then throw some teams into the mix that had to reschedule games and are
playing three times this week instead of the usual two – well, interesting
times indeed.

At the moment, the ECAC has more-or-less organized itself into three tiers.
The top three have broken away from the pack, and the next three are likely
to finish 4-6 in some order, leaving a whole mess of teams that could finish
anywhere from sixth to twelfth.

Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
team in the ECAC could finish.  For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:

THIS WEEK:  The team's games this week, its last two (or three) of the
     season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 or 9 points)
     in the standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could
     win or lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there
     are more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Union wins the
     head-to-head points tiebreaker against Princeton 5-1 (with a win in
     regulation and one in overtime); however, in a three-way tie involving
     these two and Yale, Union would actually be seeded lower than
     Princeton.  If a listed tiebreaker result depends on more than just
     those two teams being tied, it is marked with an asterisk:

          Union could win or lose* against Princeton

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
     such as in tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
3.   Comparison of points against top four teams.
4.   Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5.   Goal differential head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against top four teams.
7.   Goal differential against top eight teams.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
Remaining ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEK:  Yale, Cornell, Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Six points will clinch the top spot.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Will finish third if they lose all three games in
     regulation (what a pain in the ass it is to have to specify that),
     Clarkson gets at least one point, and Harvard gets at least eight.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Clarkson and Harvard.

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEK:  Yale, Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up second with two points.
     BEST CASE:  Would take first with two regulation wins if Quinnipiac
     gets no more than five points.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to third if they get swept in regulation and Harvard
     gets at least eight points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac and Harvard.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEK:  At Union, at Rensselaer, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched third and can do no better than
     that without help.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to first with three wins in regulation if Quinnipiac
     and Clarkson each get no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Third.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac; loses to Clarkson.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEK:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Four points will give the Big Red fourth place.
     BEST CASE:  Fourth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes sixth with a pair of regulation losses if Colgate
     gets at least three points and Rensselaer sweeps in regulation.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Colgate and Rensselaer.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEK:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fifth with three points.
     BEST CASE:  Would rise to fourth with two regulation wins if Cornell
     gets no more than three points.
     WORST CASE:  Drops to seventh if they lose twice in regulation (are you
     sick of that word yet?), Rensselaer gets at least four points, and
     Princeton gets at least eight.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell and Rensselaer; could win* or lose against
     Princeton.

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEK:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes sixth place with five points.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth with two wins in regulation if Cornell has
     two regulation losses and Colgate gets no more than two points.
     WORST CASE:  Slides down to tenth if they get swept in regulation,
     Union gets two regulation wins, Princeton and Brown get at least five
     points each, and Yale gets at least eight.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell, Brown, and Union; loses to Colgate and
     Yale; could win or lose against Princeton; could win or lose* against
     St. Lawrence

Princeton:
     THIS WEEK:  Colgate, Cornell, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Would wrap up seventh place with six points.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches fifth with three regulation wins if Colgate does
     not beat Quinnipiac in regulation and Rensselaer gets no more than four
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Winds up twelfth if they get swept in regulation, Brown
     does not lose twice in regulation, Union beats Harvard, St. Lawrence
     gets at least two points, Dartmouth gets at least five, and Yale gets
     at least five against Clarkson and Quinnipiac.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Rensselaer and St. Lawrence;
     could win or lose* against Colgate, Brown, and Yale; could win* or lose
     against Union and Dartmouth.

Brown:
     THIS WEEK:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  The Bears clinch eighth with a regulation sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to sixth with two regulation wins if Rensselaer gets
     no more than two points and Princeton gets no more than five.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation,
     Union gets at least one point, Dartmouth gets at least four points, and
     Yale gets at least five.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose against St.
     Lawrence; could win or lose* against Dartmouth; could win* or lose
     against Princeton, Union, and Yale.

Union:
     THIS WEEK:  Harvard, Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Two regulation wins will wrap up tenth place.
     BEST CASE:  Takes sixth with a sweep in regulation if RPI has two
     regulation losses, Princeton gets no more than five points, and St.
     Lawrence gets a win of some kind against Brown.
     WORST CASE:  Ends up in twelfth place if they get swept in regulation,
     St. Lawrence does not have two regulation losses, and Yale gets at
     least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose* against
     Princeton, Brown, St. Lawrence, and Dartmouth; could win* or lose
     against Yale.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEK:  Brown, Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes ninth with a regulation sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Gets sixth with two wins in regulation if Rensselaer is
     swept in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points, and Union
     does not win twice in regulation.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth with a pair of regulation losses if Union
     gets at least one point and Dartmouth gets at least three.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Princeton, Brown, Dartmouth,
     and Yale; could win* or lose against Rensselaer and Union.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEK:  At Rensselaer, at Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  With a pair of wins in regulation, Dartmouth wraps up
     tenth.
     BEST CASE:  Would rise to seventh with a regulation sweep if Princeton
     gets no more than two points, Brown gets no more than two points
     against St. Lawrence and loses to Clarkson in regulation, St. Lawrence
     gets no more than three points, and Yale gets no more than six.
     WORST CASE:  Slides to twelfth if they lose twice in regulation and
     Yale gets at least three points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against St. Lawrence; could win or
     lose* against Princeton and Yale; could win* or lose against Brown and
     Union.

Yale:
     THIS WEEK:  At Quinnipiac, at Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Takes ninth if they win three times in regulation.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches sixth with three regulation wins if Rensselaer
     loses twice in regulation, Princeton gets no more than four points,
     Brown loses to St. Lawrence in regulation, and Dartmouth also beats
     Union in regulation (and that's the last time I'm going to use that
     word).
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they get no more than one point.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against St. Lawrence;
     could win or lose* against Brown and Union; could win* or lose against
     Princeton and Dartmouth.

[billhoward]

The short version is this?

Code Select Expand


4. Cornell    33 points going into the final weekend
5. Colgate    30 points
ECAC points in league games: win 3 points, overtime or shootout win 2 points, OT or shootout loss 1 point.

If the outcome of Cornell & Colgate is based on is based on winning against lower-ranked (ECAC standings) teams, losing to higher-ranked, Cornell and Colgate both go 1-1 and Cornell take 4th with the same 3-point margin as now.

If Cornell goes 0-2 and Colgate 1-1, Colgate and Cornell finished tied with 33 points and Colgate gets the 4-seed because Cornell lost the first RS game 3-2 then tied 2-2 (with a shootout loss), and the first tiebreaker is head to head between two teams that are tied.

The ECAC lists these as the tiebreakers: https://www.ecachockey.com/men/tournament/ChampTieBreaking

Seeding for championship competition is based on total points accumulated during league contests. In the event teams are tied in the final regular-season standings, the following tiebreakers (listed in order of application) shall be used to determine seeding. (Note: Only League games apply):

Comparison of points attained in games between tied teams (head to head).
Wins (regulation and overtime. Shootout results do not apply).
Comparison of points attained in games against the top four teams.
Comparison of points attained in games against the top eight teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition between tied teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition against the top four teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition against the top eight teams.

[Give My Regards]

The short version is this?

Code Select Expand


4. Cornell    33 points going into the final weekend
5. Colgate    30 points
ECAC points in league games: win 3 points, overtime or shootout win 2 points, OT or shootout loss 1 point.

If the outcome of Cornell & Colgate is based on is based on winning against lower-ranked (ECAC standings) teams, losing to higher-ranked, Cornell and Colgate both go 1-1 and Cornell take 4th with the same 3-point margin as now.

If Cornell goes 0-2 and Colgate 1-1, Colgate and Cornell finished tied with 36 points and Colgate gets the 4-seed because Cornell lost the first RS game 3-2 then tied 2-2 (with a shootout loss), and the first tiebreaker is head to head between two teams that are tied.

Under this scenario, Cornell and Colgate would be tied with 33 points.  You are correct that Colgate has the head-to-head tiebreaker.  If Cornell does go 0-2, they would also have to worry about RPI (currently at 27 points) going 2-0 and pushing the Big Red down to sixth.  Cornell and RPI split their season series, but with two more wins, RPI would win the league-wins tiebreaker 11-10.  (A three-way tiebreaker at 33 points would go Colgate, RPI, Cornell)

[billhoward]

You are correct that Colgate has the head-to-head tiebreaker.  If Cornell does go 0-2, they would also have to worry about RPI (currently at 27 points) going 2-0 and pushing the Big Red down to sixth.  Cornell and RPI split their season series, but with two more wins, RPI would win the league-wins tiebreaker 11-10.  (A three-way tiebreaker at 33 points would go Colgate, RPI, Cornell)

RPI hosts Dartmouth then Harvard to end the regular season. I was about to say, odds are against winning both of those, but RPI already has, both by 2-0 margins. Harvard in February is 5-1-1 so far including 1-0 over Quinnipiac. (Harvard has 3 road games this weekend: Union, RPI and Princeton Sunday afternoon.)

[dbilmes]

You are correct that Colgate has the head-to-head tiebreaker.  If Cornell does go 0-2, they would also have to worry about RPI (currently at 27 points) going 2-0 and pushing the Big Red down to sixth.  Cornell and RPI split their season series, but with two more wins, RPI would win the league-wins tiebreaker 11-10.  (A three-way tiebreaker at 33 points would go Colgate, RPI, Cornell)

RPI hosts Dartmouth then Harvard to end the regular season. I was about to say, odds are against winning both of those, but RPI already has, both by 2-0 margins. Harvard in February is 5-1-1 so far including 1-0 over Quinnipiac. (Harvard has 3 road games this weekend: Union, RPI and Princeton Sunday afternoon.)

Harvard has its two Olympic players back on its team as well. They actually played in Harvard's games last weekend.

[CU2007]

Something to consider. With Qpac about to win tonight, they could lock up the #1 seed on Friday against us. Presumably they could then choose to rest some guys who are "playing hurt" on Saturday vs Colgate with their seed (and spot in the Pairwise) assured. This would not be good news for us.

[nshapiro]

Something to consider. With Qpac about to win tonight, they could lock up the #1 seed on Friday against us. Presumably they could then choose to rest some guys who are "playing hurt" on Saturday vs Colgate with their seed (and spot in the Pairwise) assured. This would not be good news for us.

Q is currently 7 in pairwise.  Are you saying that they already are locked in to a #2 seed, and there is no way they can rise to 4th, or fall to 9th?

[billhoward]

Quinnipiac's student-athletes might also be on edge thinking about pending exams and doing Bobcat Nation proud with their outstanding midterm grades.

[Give My Regards]

Quinnipiac's student-athletes might also be on edge thinking about pending exams and doing Bobcat Nation proud with their outstanding midterm grades.

:-D Good one

[jtwcornell91]

The short version is this?

Code Select Expand


4. Cornell    33 points going into the final weekend
5. Colgate    30 points
ECAC points in league games: win 3 points, overtime or shootout win 2 points, OT or shootout loss 1 point.

If the outcome of Cornell & Colgate is based on is based on winning against lower-ranked (ECAC standings) teams, losing to higher-ranked, Cornell and Colgate both go 1-1 and Cornell take 4th with the same 3-point margin as now.

If Cornell goes 0-2 and Colgate 1-1, Colgate and Cornell finished tied with 33 points and Colgate gets the 4-seed because Cornell lost the first RS game 3-2 then tied 2-2 (with a shootout loss), and the first tiebreaker is head to head between two teams that are tied.

The ECAC lists these as the tiebreakers: https://www.ecachockey.com/men/tournament/ChampTieBreaking

Seeding for championship competition is based on total points accumulated during league contests. In the event teams are tied in the final regular-season standings, the following tiebreakers (listed in order of application) shall be used to determine seeding. (Note: Only League games apply):

Comparison of points attained in games between tied teams (head to head).
Wins (regulation and overtime. Shootout results do not apply).
Comparison of points attained in games against the top four teams.
Comparison of points attained in games against the top eight teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition between tied teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition against the top four teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition against the top eight teams.

Last I heard, we were still trying to get a straight answer about whether "points attained in games" included the shootout point.

Sorry about not doing the playoff possibilities/nutshell stuff this year.  I just never managed to find the time to update it for the wacky new point system.

[upprdeck]

it will also be SR night in QUin so some of those kids will be wanting to play not sit..

[Trotsky]

Quinnipiac's student-athletes might also be on edge thinking about pending exams and doing Bobcat Nation proud with their outstanding midterm grades.

Can't spell QULTIVATED without "QU".

[billhoward]

Quinnipiac's student-athletes might also be on edge thinking about pending exams and doing Bobcat Nation proud with their outstanding midterm grades.

:-D Good one

She coped with academic pressures: Quinnipiac Student Calls In Bomb Threat to Graduation So Parents Wouldn't Discover She Dropped Out

I use this link a lot and really need to find out where she is today. Maybe I'll start with Theranos.

[Swampy]

Quinnipiac's student-athletes might also be on edge thinking about pending exams and doing Bobcat Nation proud with their outstanding midterm grades.

:-D Good one

She coped with academic pressures: Quinnipiac Student Calls In Bomb Threat to Graduation So Parents Wouldn't Discover She Dropped Out

I use this link a lot and really need to find out where she is today. Maybe I'll start with Theranos.

"Police soon managed to trace the calls back to Shea ..."

Probably because she used the iPhone she bought with pilfered tuition money. Had she gone to Stanford, they would have taught her how to use a burner phone.