PWR

[Trotsky]

Nice visualization of PWR by Conference:



Edit: without St. Lawrence.

[ugarte]

glad we didn't play LIU that last column is killing us

[French Rage]

That's a surprisingly even spread across conferences (not counting AHA because who does?).

[ursusminor]

Edit: without St. Lawrence.

The top of SLU's logo shows just above Colgate's which is where it should be. They made all of the logos have the same width, so if one team with a logo that has more vertical extent than horizontal is one place above one whose logo has more vertical extent than horizontal, it can be hidden.

[Trotsky]

Thanks!

[Todd R]

I was curious, so I ran it on CHN pairwise calculator - if we had split with ASU, we would be a very close second in the PWR.  Same thing if we had held on to beat Clarkson (although we wouldn't be as close to first).

This system needs to be reworked if one game can make that much of a difference.  I know, I know, it is still relatively early in the season, things will change, etc...

[Scersk '97]

I was curious, so I ran it on CHN pairwise calculator - if we had split with ASU, we would be a very close second in the PWR.  Same thing if we had held on to beat Clarkson (although we wouldn't be as close to first).

This system needs to be reworked if one game can make that much of a difference.  I know, I know, it is still relatively early in the season, things will change, etc...

Holy crap! I just checked as well to confirm. That is enormously screwy.

KRACH for the win, as always.

Using the current ratings, we're second in the league behind Quinnipiac, are very likely to beat (defined as having a rating more than twice the opponent's rating) any team not named QU, Harvard, or Clarkson, and have the "potential" (defined as where we would sit at twice our rating, i.e., if things go well the rest of the season) to be a top-8 team nationally. That seems about right.

[upprdeck]

i see the same results if we had not lost the Havard game as well..

[Scersk '97]

Fix the dumbest of "wins"—the Brown game—and we're #8.

[Dafatone]

PWR is practically just RPI. RPI is a function of win%, opponent's win%, and opponent's opponent's win%. With some adjustments for home and away games, RPI doesn't care who you beat, just your record.

So the difference between flipping one game or another is minimal.

Frankly, the best thing a team can do is play more road games than home games. The home/away adjustment is way too much, in my opinion. Home losses and road wins are multiplied by 1.2, home wins and road losses by 0.8. That's a 50% difference (or 33%, I guess, depending on perspective).

[upprdeck]

so win this weekend and really win out against all the teams we should.  also likely why PWR takes a jump in all the discussion as all the games we are discussing are road games.

now beat Clark/Har at home and take care of business against the bad teams.. cant stub your toe 2-3 times against them down the stretch.

[ursusminor]

PWR is practically just RPI. RPI is a function of win%, opponent's win%, and opponent's opponent's win%. With some adjustments for home and away games, RPI doesn't care who you beat, just your record.

So the difference between flipping one game or another is minimal.

Frankly, the best thing a team can do is play more road games than home games. The home/away adjustment is way too much, in my opinion. Home losses and road wins are multiplied by 1.2, home wins and road losses by 0.8. That's a 50% difference (or 33%, I guess, depending on perspective).

The home/away adjustment is certainly too much to fix the difference in difficulty of winning away vs. winning at home, but I have read that it was designed to encourage certain schools to play more road games. Conceivably this is apocryphal.

[upprdeck]

if you go win road games against better teams it helps your PWR? isnt that really what they want to see to grow the sport..  

Cornell went to ASU and UND and split and the PWR went up, we could have played 4 home games against bad teams, but we wouldnt have gained anything as a team or the sport..

i guess the question would be if they had a tool to swap out games..  switch it so we play RIT or someone at home and win and see what the PWR would have done.

[Dafatone]

if you go win road games against better teams it helps your PWR? isnt that really what they want to see to grow the sport..  

Cornell went to ASU and UND and split and the PWR went up, we could have played 4 home games against bad teams, but we wouldnt have gained anything as a team or the sport..

i guess the question would be if they had a tool to swap out games..  switch it so we play RIT or someone at home and win and see what the PWR would have done.

I'd rather they just mandate something like "must play a certain number or percentage of road games for postseason eligibility." Though that would be a mess in COVID times.

[Trotsky]

Now 14th after last night, thus putting us exactly back to our position before ASU.