Corona Virus And Playoff Games

[adamw]

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

[Jim Hyla]

Adam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Well, I have nothing to do with B, Jim ... So what I say or don't about A is irrelevant.  My point was that - regardless of the numbers - sports leagues are going to be shutting things down.  We've seen it already, and there's only a couple hundred cases.  Events canceled.  Gyms closed to the public.  Johns Hopkins closed to the public over 3 cases.

You in particular, no, you don't control B. However the combined hysteria about this could easily lead to an unnecessary B and I would have liked to think that you didn't contrbute to that hysteria.

Then in another post you say:

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either

Now that's what I mean by contributing to hysteria. Damn, as of 3/7 there were 80k cases in China and you're talking about 1 million. There is just no scientific reason to be saying that, AT THIS TIME. Could it happen, sure and I could get hit by lightning. But it's not raining, so although there is heat lightning and you can have lightning in snowstorms, it's not something that I'm going to worry about, right now.

I thought you were a man of math and statistics. Well the statistics say that there aren't 1 million cases worldwide yet. So let's not promote that we could have a million here until we have some data to support the claim.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on the FF being played with no fans, only you in the press will get to enjoy it. But I'd also bet that it won't be that way because of stats, but due to hysteria. I just wish that intelligent people wouldn't add to that hysteria, or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And that's too bad for the rest of us.

[adamw]

I thought you were a man of math and statistics. Well the statistics say that there aren't 1 million cases worldwide yet. So let's not promote that we could have a million here until we have some data to support the claim.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on the FF being played with no fans, only you in the press will get to enjoy it. But I'd also bet that it won't be that way because of stats, but due to hysteria. I just wish that intelligent people wouldn't add to that hysteria, or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And that's too bad for the rest of us.

The mistake you are making Jim is thinking that I am hysterical about that number. I am not hysterical whatsoever. I am saying it matter of factly.  Even if it hit 1 million, I'd have no problem going to any of these events myself.  Me saying that is based upon numerous articles - from scientists, based on math - that suggest that number will be easily hit. I'll go dig them up for you.

[billhoward]

Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

The media will be in because there'll be video. And radio. Each team will have a school photographer. And once they're in, how to you keep out other media? The ECAC will lawyer up and want other media to sign waivers.

[Tcl123]

If I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

"What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings."

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

Speaking of assholes....

Can I give +1000? (In regards to the asshole comment)

[billhoward]

Good point: Rural areas without enough docs, and ventilators, higher fatality rate. I was hung up on how the fatality rate moves up for people over 60 especially if you underlying problems.

Hard to believe from seeing that all-silver hair, but Mike Pence is only 60, so if the unforeseen happens to the boss ...

and Klobuchar should stick close by the phone, too.

Don't shake hands, don't kiss babies, don't kiss babes, don't massage shoulders.

Meanwhile, I want the ECAC to Not Panic. I want to see the games in person.

[billhoward]

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

If you watch on video, how would you know if Harvard closed its doors. The tipoff would be there's nobody there, and that could be a typical Harvard game in the healthiest of times.

[billhoward]

Good stuff. A place such as Switzerland with good medical for everybody, I could see a low fatlity percentage, but it's a small sample size. We don't know how many cases there really are in each country.

If there are fatalities on the cruise ships we don't let dock at US ports, does it go on somebody else's tally?

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.  

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places).  Also a high percentage of the male population smokes.  How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?  

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up.  That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?  

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan.  What is the demographic that frequents that type of market?  My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population.  If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

[andyw2100]

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage?  Hold it at a neutral site.  Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

[billhoward]

If you tried to find toilet paper at Costco, you'd suspect pandemic. Costco replaced ~30 feet of toilet paper pallet area with another 30 feet of Bounty paper towels. Meanwhile, who needs TP? Costco is selling a basic Toto Washlet for $300. Their top line model with e-water is up near $1000.

[billhoward]

How busy can Albany's Civic Center be? Or Messa?

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

How busy can Albany's Civic Center be? Or Messa?

They stopped the crowd from coming because of Cuomo's recommendation for events in New York.  The key is getting out of New York State.

[billhoward]

I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.  

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places).  Also a high percentage of the male population smokes.  How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?  

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up.  That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?  

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan.  What is the demographic that frequents that type of market?  My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population.  If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

Data suggests those who die are older and have underlying health issues. Trying to recall if researchers say poor health increases the fatality rate among young age groups. That seems likely. China's health care facilities may not be as good as in other developed countries.