Corona Virus And Playoff Games

[French Rage]

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

[French Rage]

Now THAT'S the kind of existential question which makes this website worth following!

Please go lick a Wuhan subway pole.

[Jim Hyla]

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

[Trotsky]

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

+1000 (and increasing)

[French Rage]

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

Agreed.

[billhoward]

what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

[billhoward]

maybe they just dont allow people over 60 to attend any mass events..  there goes 75% of the home crowd.

cornell gets almost no money from hosting these playoff games anyway, they dont keep the ticket money and they dont kill it with revenue from concessions.

But the coaches are paid from another pot of money. And the ECAC pays for travel, officiating costs and event staff. So it's a no-cost event. Plus think of the positive impact on the local economy. Think of all the drinking Cornell alums do before and after in all the Collegetown ba__

[Jim Hyla]

what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

[Tcl123]

what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

It's probably a lot lower.

[Jim Hyla]

what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

It's probably a lot lower.

Thanks, good article and now I know where Bill got the 3.4 figure.

[billhoward]

The 2% death rate for coronavirus was the one cited by China and then by US people. Only this week was it revised in the US to be 3.4%, there is belief the ratio may edge back to ~2%, and there is general agreement that the executive branch has not done a reassuring job including have a "hunch" about what the real number is.

The thing the public should bear in mind is that coronavirus appears to be 20x more likely to result in death than the average case of the flu in an average year. If you get it. And also that single number of 2% or 3.4% is on the order of 20 (or 34) times worse than getting the flu. And that a disprotionate number of fatal outcomes are in people of social security years.

Me, I haven't been to China in years. Our son came close to being hired to work in China helping their athletes prep for the 2022 Olympics. He was disappointed not to go. Now we're kind of glad he didn't.

I was also disappointed there's no toilet paper at Costco (we're down to a half-dozen six-packs). Instead, they put another 30 running feet of Bounty paper towels in place of the missing TP. Costco has a list of about 20 items you can only buy two of: TP, Purell, Lysol. I'd love to see them put a couple slow-selling items on just to move the inventory, like (this is NJ) a Taylor Hall / Devils jersey bobblehead doll.

[ugarte]

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

ah fuck John's going to make another chart I don't understand

[Trotsky]

There's a good discussion of this between doctors on of all places USCHO Cafe.  One fun fact: lethality is contextual because infections can hit numbers that overwhelm local facilities.  So if hospitals have good funding and staffing patients can go through ventilation properly, lethality may only be in small fractions of a percent.  But places that cut their funding or have, I dunno, ludicrous social policies which disincentify quality medical service providers to live there, will be quickly overwhelmed and unable to provide proper end-to end treatment.  Result: lethality of 2-3% or even higher.

Bravo for life's little ironies.

[upprdeck]

millions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.