Corona Virus And Playoff Games

[billhoward]

Albany Times-Union Center hosts both NCAA basketball then hockey regionals last 2 weeks of March. At least, slated to host.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.  

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places).  Also a high percentage of the male population smokes.  How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?  

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up.  That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?  

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan.  What is the demographic that frequents that type of market?  My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population.  If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

Data suggests those who die are older and have underlying health issues. Trying to recall if researchers say poor health increases the fatality rate among young age groups. That seems likely. China's health care facilities may not be as good as in other developed countries.

Speaking from personal experience, they are not.

[JasonN95]

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage?  Hold it at a neutral site.  Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If the rationale is that there are cases in Troy so let's not stick a lot of people from Troy together in a confined space, I don't see how having those Troyians (?) gather in a different venue mitigates the concern, or how you convince Yale or Dartmouth to play host to those folks.

[upprdeck]

Indian Wells cancelled.  thats a pretty big deal

[marty]

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

This is the Troy Record's take on the closed quarterfinals.  It has AD comments which is more than the simple questioning of Coach Dave Smith as reported in the Times Union.

Here is the Schenectady Gazette's article.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage?  Hold it at a neutral site.  Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If the rationale is that there are cases in Troy so let's not stick a lot of people from Troy together in a confined space, I don't see how having those Troyians (?) gather in a different venue mitigates the concern, or how you convince Yale or Dartmouth to play host to those folks.

Agreed.  But then if the goal is to keep "Trojans" from infecting other cities, why would you allow them to go to Boston/Allston?

Now it's time to be logical:  The NY outbreak is primarily among the Orthodox Jewish community in Westchester and Rockland Counties.  How many Orthodox Jews will be attending a hockey game two hours away on Friday night or Saturday?  

And is there ANY evidence that the virus has spread due to attendance at a sports venue?  Not that I've seen.  The majority of cases outside of China were initiated by returning tourists, first from China, then from Iran and Italy.  And there's a big difference between people "trapped" on a bus or especially a cruise ship for one or two weeks versus people in an arena for three hours. Those are incubators.  Is an arena?

But again, lack of data is leading to extreme reactions.

[Jim Hyla]

Indian Wells cancelled.  thats a pretty big deal

For those, like me, who wondered, here:

Indian Wells Tennis Tournament Canceled Because of Coronavirus Outbreak

[jtwcornell91]

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

ah fuck John's going to make another chart I don't understand

More proof that I'm not a "real statistician" is that I have trouble getting inspired by biological applications.

[upprdeck]

Columbia is shut down i was told and will re-open with all classes held remotely or online only.

[sah67]

Columbia is shut down i was told and will re-open with all classes held remotely or online only.

Classes are suspended today and tomorrow and will go remote for the rest of the week, but the university is not "shut down."
https://preparedness.columbia.edu/news/update-covid-19-and-class-activity

[upprdeck]

I was just going by what the kids who go there told me.  I heard remote classes possibly for the rest of the semester from Profs down there.  Shut down in the sense of kids going to school  I guess was too literal a term to use.   Unless you send everyone home it wont really be shut down.

[billhoward]

Cornell's silence on athletics events is deafening. Several thousand alumni and fans who aren't students have plans for one of Cornell's most high-profile winter/spring sports weekends ever in Ithaca:

* #1 Women's hockey NCAA tournament game Saturday 2 pm
* #2 Men's lacrosse plays former #1 Yale Saturday 1 pm
* #1 Men's hockey plays Friday and Saturday night (Sunday, too, maybe, but statistically unlikely)
* And some other sports

As of Monday, Cornell U's last update on its plans https://www.cornell.edu/coronavirus/ was last Thursday. There's nothing even saying "We recognize there's a lot of sportsing coming up and some of it's high-level sportsing and we're thinking about how to keep the campus safe and also let fans recognize and support their teams. And for those of you planning a visit, please stop by cornell.edu/bequests first."

Maddening. One challenge for Cornell (Day Hall) is that when you operate out of Ithaca, you don't need your A-game to ignore the Ithaca Journal and Daily Sun on a daily basis. It's only when something really big happens such as another incident involving Greeks, suicides even if Cornell's rate is no different than other big schools (14 per 100,000 students per year across most colleges), or a challenge to admissions protocols.

Be nice to hear from Cornell. I've got my bags packed for Ithaca.

There is this from Friday's Ithaca Journal:

Athletic events are not affected, said Jeremy Hartigan, associate director of athletics for communications, because attendance is largely Cornell-based.

Hartigan added, "It's obviously a rapidly changing landscape we're viewing, and that answer could change in the future." https://www.ithacajournal.com/story/news/local/2020/03/06/coronavirus-ny-cornell-restrictions-spring-break-events-visitors-hockey/4973674002/

[upprdeck]

Lots of meetings but no one really knows what the best course of action is.

[billhoward]

Lots of meetings but no one really knows what the best course of action is.

Put Cornell's vice-president in charge of the response.

[billhoward]

Princeton tells students to go on spring break and then preferably stay home. Classes will be virtual instruction. Hed written by someone taught to never include the most important part of the message in the headline: "President Eisgruber Updates University on Next Steps Regarding COVID-19 to Ensure Health and Well-Being of the Entire Community"

Though we recognize that a personal, "high touch" educational environment is one of Princeton's great strengths, we also recognize that these are extraordinary times that require exceptional measures to deal with a health risk that affects us all.  For that reason, we are creating, supporting, and mandating alternative ways of meeting our academic and other programmatic requirements in ways consistent with social distancing.  This will include a mandatory, temporary move for all lectures, seminars, and precepts to virtual instruction starting on Monday, March 23.  We encourage students to consider staying home after Spring Break.  If students choose to remain home after Spring Break, we will make sure that they are able to meet their academic requirements remotely. https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/03/09/president-eisgruber-updates-university-next-steps-regarding-covid-19-ensure-health