Corona Virus And Playoff Games

[Jim Hyla]

millions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

Agree, I suspect that the death ratio will end up something significantly below 1%. The above mentioned Vox article reported that when South Korea started doing something like mass testing, their death rate was measured around 0.5%.

Unfortunately it's easy to find stats that seem to suggest that this is like the worst thing ever, but with China's number of new cases decreasing, it may also be that the disease may not stay around as long as we think.

Mass hysteria is not what's needed at this time.

[ice]

Data source:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I agree with the consensus here that there is a lot of variability in who is getting tested.  I bet the current number of infections in the US is a lot higher than 442 and consequently the mortality rate is much lower.  

The problem with only allowing young people to attend sporting events or any large gathering is that although they will probably be fine if they get the infection, they potentially become COVID-19 vectors.  

For the long pull, the whole planet needs to step up on the development of specific vaccines and non-specific anti-viral agents for upper respiratory infections.  This COVID-19 problem will be resolved at some point (months if we are very lucky, a year or two if we are not) but then something else is bound to come along with the next mutant form of coronavirus, H1N1 virus or whatever.  

Sorry for the soap-boxing.

[Cop at Lynah]

Who says numbers don't lie.  The chart makes no sense, the totals don't come close to the sum of the figures

[ice]

Who says numbers don't lie.  The chart makes no sense, the totals don't come close to the sum of the figures

Okay, I fixed the errors.

[Tcl123]

millions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

Agree, I suspect that the death ratio will end up something significantly below 1%. The above mentioned Vox article reported that when South Korea started doing something like mass testing, their death rate was measured around 0.5%.

Unfortunately it's easy to find stats that seem to suggest that this is like the worst thing ever, but with China's number of new cases decreasing, it may also be that the disease may not stay around as long as we think.

Mass hysteria is not what's needed at this time.

+1

[adamw]

Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

[Scersk '97]

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive.

Or, "worse," sued. Or, maybe, they'll turn out to have been right. This nation, for all the reasons mentioned above, is, when compared with the other rich nations of the world, uniquely ill-suited to dealing with a pandemic. Mass panic is probably unwarranted, but a little bit of panic, as I have seen mentioned even by experts in high places, goes a long way and may be beneficial in the face of a great many unknowns.

Too bad we didn't do useful things with the month or so of lead time that China bought us all with its typically autocratic but in this case useful response to the outbreak. Then we all could have been making decisions based on numbers instead of well- or ill-informed conjectures of what those numbers might turn out to be.

[osorojo]

It's not hard to imagine lawsuits arising from people who attended a sporting event and within 14 days tested positive for coronavirus. BIG $!Sports venues are certain to be considering this fact while they decide whether or not to open to the public.

[Jim Hyla]

(A)Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. (B)So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

Adam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

[adamw]

Adam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Well, I have nothing to do with B, Jim ... So what I say or don't about A is irrelevant.  My point was that - regardless of the numbers - sports leagues are going to be shutting things down.  We've seen it already, and there's only a couple hundred cases.  Events canceled.  Gyms closed to the public.  Johns Hopkins closed to the public over 3 cases.

[Beeeej]

It's not hard to imagine lawsuits arising from people who attended a sporting event and within 14 days tested positive for coronavirus. BIG $!Sports venues are certain to be considering this fact while they decide whether or not to open to the public.

It's like people have never heard of assumption of risk, or something.

[marty]

what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

It's probably a lot lower.

In South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they've picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That's a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent.

Isn't this the most hopeful part of the above linked article?  I think that unless we see a large increase in Korean cases that the ultimate rate will be less than 1%.  Am I missing something?

[redice]

Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in

If I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

[adamw]

If I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

"What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings."

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

[redice]

If I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

"What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings."

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

Speaking of assholes....