Polls 2019-20

[Al DeFlorio]

Only Denver, Mankato, and Mich State have played more top 16 teams than Cornell.  Only Clarkson has played fewer than NoDak.

Percentage of games played against top 16:  Denver, 43%; Cornell, 41%; NoDak 17%.

[Trotsky]

Top 16 vs. Top 16 (KRACH)

6-1-1 Minnesota State
1-1-2 North Dakota
5-0-2 Cornell
4-3-3 Denver  
2-4-0 Boston College
3-2-0 Ohio State
2-2-0 Penn State
0-2-0 Clarkson
1-3-0 Massachusetts
1-2-1 Minn-Duluth
2-1-1 Providence
2-3-1 Arizona State
3-7-0 Michigan State
2-3-1 Northern Michigan
4-3-0 Mass-Lowell
2-3-0 Northeastern

This more than anything tells you that this team has a real fking chance to do it.

Yeah.  I don't want to get too excited, but that's what has always been missing.

[upprdeck]

as things stand right now we will play 14 games against teams in the top 20 pairwise. pretty solid

[Scersk '97]

Top 16 vs. Top 16 (KRACH)

6-1-1 Minnesota State
1-1-2 North Dakota
5-0-2 Cornell
4-3-3 Denver  
2-4-0 Boston College
3-2-0 Ohio State
2-2-0 Penn State
0-2-0 Clarkson
1-3-0 Massachusetts
1-2-1 Minn-Duluth
2-1-1 Providence
2-3-1 Arizona State
3-7-0 Michigan State
2-3-1 Northern Michigan
4-3-0 Mass-Lowell
2-3-0 Northeastern

This more than anything tells you that this team has a real fking chance to do it.

Yeah.  I don't want to get too excited, but that's what has always been missing.

There are pretty significant KRACH "discontinuities" (there's probably a better word) between #2/#3, #5/#6, and (kind of) #32/#33, defined in a somewhat fuzzy manner by the likelihood that a higher rated team will beat the team ranked immediately below it. Another way of looking at it is that, according to KRACH, Denver has a less than 1 in 3 chance of beating Mankato, Ohio State has a less than 1 in 4 chance, and Maine has a less than 1 in 10 chance.

It seems that Mankato and North Dakota are in a little bit of a "league of their own" situation, perhaps slightly due to having significant results against each other, I would think. But they're definitely running a bit above the rest, although still in striking distance for us. Then there's another little group of Denver, BC, and us, and then a somewhat unmediated mass down to BU.

For whatever reason, I usually view a greater than 1 in 3 likelihood according to KRACH of one team beating another as pretty significant. So another way one might look at all of this is to consider which teams are "in the hunt" for the top 4. Right now, that's only BC, Ohio State, and Penn State. Clarkson is perilously close to being in that group.

To my mind, relatively few teams seem to be in striking distance of a national championship this season. I'm glad we're in that group so far.

[Dafatone]

Top 16 vs. Top 16 (KRACH)

6-1-1 Minnesota State
1-1-2 North Dakota
5-0-2 Cornell
4-3-3 Denver  
2-4-0 Boston College
3-2-0 Ohio State
2-2-0 Penn State
0-2-0 Clarkson
1-3-0 Massachusetts
1-2-1 Minn-Duluth
2-1-1 Providence
2-3-1 Arizona State
3-7-0 Michigan State
2-3-1 Northern Michigan
4-3-0 Mass-Lowell
2-3-0 Northeastern

This more than anything tells you that this team has a real fking chance to do it.

Yeah.  I don't want to get too excited, but that's what has always been missing.

There are pretty significant KRACH "discontinuities" (there's probably a better word) between #2/#3, #5/#6, and (kind of) #32/#33, defined in a somewhat fuzzy manner by the likelihood that a higher rated team will beat the team ranked immediately below it. Another way of looking at it is that, according to KRACH, Denver has a less than 1 in 3 chance of beating Mankato, Ohio State has a less than 1 in 4 chance, and Maine has a less than 1 in 10 chance.

It seems that Mankato and North Dakota are in a little bit of a "league of their own" situation, perhaps slightly due to having significant results against each other, I would think. But they're definitely running a bit above the rest, although still in striking distance for us. Then there's another little group of Denver, BC, and us, and then a somewhat unmediated mass down to BU.

For whatever reason, I usually view a greater than 1 in 3 likelihood according to KRACH of one team beating another as pretty significant. So another way one might look at all of this is to consider which teams are "in the hunt" for the top 4. Right now, that's only BC, Ohio State, and Penn State. Clarkson is perilously close to being in that group.

To my mind, relatively few teams seem to be in striking distance of a national championship this season. I'm glad we're in that group so far.

Without whipping out actual win percentages, it seems like this year, all of college hockey is very top-heavy. The top three teams have a combined six losses between them. BC has five losses. Denver has four. Clarkson has five. I feel like at this point, BC's 15-5-0, Denver's 15-4-5, and Clarkson's 16-5-2 would all be contending for the best records in the country (maybe not Denver, that's a lot of ties). Instead, they're all well behind the top three.

The last two years, only two teams have finished with single-digit losses. This year, several teams are on track to either get there or come close. Granted, that's an odd cutoff, because a slew of teams have finished with exactly ten losses, but the point still stands.

[Trotsky]

playoffstatus.com gives the following odds right now:

.99 Bid (.28 #1 overall; .85 #1 regional seed)
.71 QF
.45 F4
.26 Finalist
.15 National Champion

I am in no way quoting this just to get under one guy's skin.  That would be immature.

[Trotsky]

The last two years, only two teams have finished with single-digit losses. This year, several teams are on track to either get there or come close.

The average for the last 20 years is 3.4 teams with fewer than 10 losses.

By year:

Code Select Expand


2000 7 Niagara, SLU, Colgate, UNH, Quinnipiac, Wisconsin, North Dakota
2001 4 Michigan State, BC, North Dakota, St. Cloud
2002 4 Michigan State, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], UNH, Denver, Minnesota
2003 4 [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], UNH, Colorado College, Minnesota
2004 3 BC, Maine, North Dakota
2005 5 Michigan, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], BC, Colorado College, Denver
2006 3 Miami, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], Minnesota
2007 2 Notre Dame, Clarkson
2008 2 Michigan, Miami
2009 3 Notre Dame, Yale, BU
2010 2 Miami, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color]
2011 3 Yale, BC, North Dakota
2012 2 Union, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color]
2013 2 Quinnipiac, Minnesota
2014 3 Minnesota, Union, BC
2015 3 Robert Morris, BU, Mankato
2016 8 Michigan, Quinnipiac, Yale, BC, Providence, North Dakota, St. Cloud, Michigan Tech
2017 4 Harvard, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], Denver, Duluth
2018 2 [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color],  St. Cloud
2019 2 AIC, St. Cloud


Right now 4 teams have 4 losses or fewer: Cornell (1), North Dakota (2), Denver  (4), Mankato (3).  3 have exactly 5: Clarkson, Dartmouth,  BC.

[French Rage]

The last two years, only two teams have finished with single-digit losses. This year, several teams are on track to either get there or come close.

The average for the last 20 years is 3.4 teams with fewer than 10 losses.

By year:

Code Select Expand


2000 7 Niagara, SLU, Colgate, UNH, Quinnipiac, Wisconsin, North Dakota
2001 4 Michigan State, BC, North Dakota, St. Cloud
2002 4 Michigan State, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], UNH, Denver, Minnesota
2003 4 [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], UNH, Colorado College, Minnesota
2004 3 BC, Maine, North Dakota
2005 5 Michigan, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], BC, Colorado College, Denver
2006 3 Miami, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], Minnesota
2007 2 Notre Dame, Clarkson
2008 2 Michigan, Miami
2009 3 Notre Dame, Yale, BU
2010 2 Miami, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color]
2011 3 Yale, BC, North Dakota
2012 2 Union, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color]
2013 2 Quinnipiac, Minnesota
2014 3 Minnesota, Union, BC
2015 3 Robert Morris, BU, Mankato
2016 8 Michigan, Quinnipiac, Yale, BC, Providence, North Dakota, St. Cloud, Michigan Tech
2017 4 Harvard, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], Denver, Duluth
2018 2 [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color],  St. Cloud
2019 2 AIC, St. Cloud


Right now 4 teams have 4 losses or fewer: Cornell (1), North Dakota (2), Denver  (4), Mankato (3).  3 have exactly 5: Clarkson, Dartmouth,  BC.

Can you put in bold if any won the NC?

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

The last two years, only two teams have finished with single-digit losses. This year, several teams are on track to either get there or come close.

The average for the last 20 years is 3.4 teams with fewer than 10 losses.

By year:

Code Select Expand


2000 7 Niagara, SLU, Colgate, UNH, Quinnipiac, Wisconsin, [b]North Dakota[/b]
2001 4 Michigan State, [b]BC[/b], North Dakota, St. Cloud
2002 4 Michigan State, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], UNH, Denver, [b]Minnesota[/b]
2003 4 [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], UNH, Colorado College, [b]Minnesota[/b]
2004 3 BC, Maine, North Dakota
2005 5 Michigan, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], BC, Colorado College, [b]Denver[/b]
2006 3 Miami, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], Minnesota
2007 2 Notre Dame, Clarkson
2008 2 Michigan, Miami
2009 3 Notre Dame, Yale, [b]BU[/b]
2010 2 Miami, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color]
2011 3 Yale, BC, North Dakota
2012 2 Union, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color]
2013 2 Quinnipiac, Minnesota
2014 3 Minnesota, [b]Union[/b], BC
2015 3 Robert Morris, BU, Mankato
2016 8 Michigan, Quinnipiac, Yale, BC, Providence, [b]North Dakota[/b], St. Cloud, Michigan Tech
2017 4 Harvard, [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color], [b]Denver[/b], Duluth
2018 2 [color=#FF0000]Cornell[/color],  St. Cloud
2019 2 AIC, St. Cloud


Right now 4 teams have 4 losses or fewer: Cornell (1), North Dakota (2), Denver  (4), Mankato (3).  3 have exactly 5: Clarkson, Dartmouth,  BC.

Can you put in bold if any won the NC?

Done

[French Rage]

Huh, not as often as I would have thought.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

I wonder if CHA folding made it less likely for a 1-seed to advance.  Formerly, two 1-seeds played weaker conferences.  Now only one does, and that  conference has gotten a bit more competitive, too.

Just a thought.

[French Rage]

I wonder if CHA folding made it less likely for a 1-seed to advance.  Formerly, two 1-seeds played weaker conferences.  Now only one does, and that  conference has gotten a bit more competitive, too.

Just a thought.

Add to that that lower seeds can sometimes be the home team, giving them help, and that a single game in a sport like hockey makes upset much more likely.

[Swampy]

Top 16 vs. Top 16 (KRACH)

6-1-1 Minnesota State
1-1-2 North Dakota
5-0-2 Cornell
4-3-3 Denver  
2-4-0 Boston College
3-2-0 Ohio State
2-2-0 Penn State
0-2-0 Clarkson
1-3-0 Massachusetts
1-2-1 Minn-Duluth
2-1-1 Providence
2-3-1 Arizona State
3-7-0 Michigan State
2-3-1 Northern Michigan
4-3-0 Mass-Lowell
2-3-0 Northeastern

FWIW, NMU came into Lynah Friday night with a five-game unbeaten streak stretching back to Dec. 14, when NMU beat then-#1 Minny State. The first weekend in 2020 NMU swept then-#11 Bowling Green @ Bowling Green. The next weekend it swept Anchorage at home. Not too shabby.

And Cornell's record of 1-0-1 compares rather well with Minny State's 1-1-0 against this common opponent.

[Jim Hyla]

Rankings roundup: How the top 20 teams fared, Jan. 17-18

Code Select Expand


[b][u]No. 1 Cornell (13-1-3)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 17 Northern Michigan 2 at No. 1 Cornell 2 (OT)[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – No. 17 Northern Michigan 1 at [b][u]No. 1 Cornell 3[/u][/b]

No. 1 North Dakota (18-2-3)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 1 North Dakota 4 at Miami 4 (OT)[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 1 North Dakota 5[/u][/b] at Miami 3

No. 3 Minnesota State (22-3-1)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 3 Minnesota State 6[/u][/b] at No. 15 Bowling Green 3
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 3 Minnesota State 3[/u][/b] at No. 15 Bowling Green 2 (OT)

No. 4 Denver (15-4-5)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 4 Denver 1 at Omaha 1 (OT)[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 4 Denver 2 at Omaha 2 (OT)[/u][/b]

No. 5 Boston College (15-5-0)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 5 Boston College 3[/u][/b] at No. 13 UMass Lowell 2
01/18/2020 – Boston University 3 at [b][u]No. 5 Boston College 4[/u][/b]

No. 6 Penn State (16-7-1)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]RV Michigan 6[/u][/b] at No. 6 Penn State 0
01/18/2020 – [b][u]RV Michigan 4 at No. 6 Penn State 4 (OT)[/u][/b]

[b][u]No. 7 Clarkson (16-5-2)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – No. 7 Clarkson 2 at [b][u]RV Dartmouth 3[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 7 Clarkson 5[/u][/b] at No. 16 Harvard 3

No. 8 Minnesota Duluth (12-8-2)
01/17/2020 No. 8 Minnesota Duluth 1 at [b][u]St. Cloud State 2[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 No. 8 Minnesota Duluth 0 at [b][u]St. Cloud State 2[/u][/b]

[b][u]No. 9 Ohio State (15-6-3)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 18 Notre Dame 4 at No. 9 Ohio State 4 (OT)[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – No. 18 Notre Dame 1 at [b][u]No. 9 Ohio State 2[/u][/b]

No. 10 Massachusetts (16-7-1)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 10 Massachusetts 4[/u][/b] at Vermont 0
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 10 Massachusetts 3[/u][/b] at Vermont 1

[b][u]No. 11 Providence (14-6-5)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – [b][u]RV New Hampshire 4[/u][/b] at No. 11 Providence 3
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 11 Providence 5[/u][/b] at RV New Hampshire 1

No. 12 Northeastern (13-7-2)
01/18/2020 – [b][u]Connecticut 3[/u][/b] at No. 12 Northeastern 2 (OT)

No. 13 UMass Lowell (13-6-4)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 5 Boston College 3[/u][/b] at No. 13 UMass Lowell 2
01/18/2020 – Merrimack 4 at [b][u]No. 13 UMass Lowell 6[/u][/b]

No. 14 Arizona State (15-8-3)
01/17/2020 – RIT 1 at [b][u]No. 14 Arizona State 6[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – RIT 3 at [b][u]No. 14 Arizona State 5[/u][/b]

No. 15 Bowling Green (13-11-2)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 3 Minnesota State 6[/u][/b] at No. 15 Bowling Green 3
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 3 Minnesota State 3[/u][/b] at No. 15 Bowling Green 2 (OT)

[b][u]No. 16 Harvard (9-6-2)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – St. Lawrence 1 at [b][u]No. 16 Harvard 3[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 7 Clarkson 5[/u][/b] at No. 16 Harvard 3

[b][u]No. 17 Northern Michigan (13-8-3)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 17 Northern Michigan 2 at No. 1 Cornell 2 (OT)[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – No. 17 Northern Michigan 1 at [b][u]No. 1 Cornell 3[/u][/b]

No. 18 Notre Dame (10-10-4)
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 18 Notre Dame 4 at No. 9 Ohio State 4 (OT)[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – No. 18 Notre Dame 1 at [b][u]No. 9 Ohio State 2[/u][/b]

No. 19 Michigan Tech (13-11-3)
01/17/2020 – No. 19 Michigan Tech 1 at [b][u]RV Bemidji State 4[/u][/b]
01/18/2020 – [b][u]No. 19 Michigan Tech 1 at RV Bemidji State 1 (OT[/u][/b])

[b][u]No. 20 Michigan State (12-11-1)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 20 Michigan State 4[/u][/b] at Wisconsin 0
01/18/2020 – No. 20 Michigan State 1 at [b][u]Wisconsin 3[/u][/b]

[b][u]No. 20 Quinnipiac (13-8-1)[/u][/b]
01/17/2020 – [b][u]No. 20 Quinnipiac 4[/u][/b] at Holy Cross 3

RV = Received Votes


[ugarte]

NMU beat then-#1 Minny State.

whoa sounds like Mankato should be very concerned with their inconsistency