Bracketology 2016-17 Style

[KGR11]

Also if we were to get by BU, I'd rather face Minny than DU.

Also if we were to get by BU, I'd rather face BC than Bemidji. #2009

[Trotsky]

If we win the ECAC tournament, what is our highest or lowest possible seed?  Does that guarantee a #2 seed?  Can we get a #2 seed without winning the Whitelaw Cup?

PlayoffStatus still has us at a non-zero chance of the #1 overall seed in the tourney.  So there's the highest possible seed right there.  :-)

If we were to win out and along the way take out both Union and Harvard, we'd probably be in very good shape for at worst  a 2.

[KenP]

If we win the ECAC tournament, what is our highest or lowest possible seed?  Does that guarantee a #2 seed?  Can we get a #2 seed without winning the Whitelaw Cup?

PlayoffStatus still has us at a non-zero chance of the #1 overall seed in the tourney.  So there's the highest possible seed right there.  :-)

If we were to win out and along the way take out both Union and Harvard, we'd probably be in very good shape for at worst  a 2.

Based on their red-green color designations, Cornell controls their own destiny for the #8 spot, i.e. a #2 bracket seeding.

[Beeeej]

If we win the ECAC tournament, what is our highest or lowest possible seed?  Does that guarantee a #2 seed?  Can we get a #2 seed without winning the Whitelaw Cup?

PlayoffStatus still has us at a non-zero chance of the #1 overall seed in the tourney.  So there's the highest possible seed right there.  :-)

If we were to win out and along the way take out both Union and Harvard, we'd probably be in very good shape for at worst  a 2.

Based on their red-green color designations, Cornell controls their own destiny for the #8 spot, i.e. a #2 bracket seeding.

So if I understand correctly, they're saying that a Cornell run of 6-0-0 through Lake Placid would result in a #8 finish or above, period, no matter what else occurs?

[Trotsky]

So if I understand correctly, they're saying that a Cornell run of 6-0-0 through Lake Placid would result in a #8 finish or above, period, no matter what else occurs?

I believe this is correct except it is #7 or above.

Likewise, this says that we are guaranteed to make the tourney by winning out except for the conference final.

[Beeeej]

So if I understand correctly, they're saying that a Cornell run of 6-0-0 through Lake Placid would result in a #8 finish or above, period, no matter what else occurs?

I believe this is correct except it is #7 or above.

Doesn't the red % under #7 mean we don't control our destiny for that spot? And doesn't that mean that #7 isn't guaranteed with a Cornell run of 6-0-0 through Lake Placid regardless of external factors?

[Trotsky]

Doesn't the red % under #7 mean we don't control our destiny for that spot? And doesn't that mean that #7 isn't guaranteed with a Cornell run of 6-0-0 through Lake Placid regardless of external factors?

Yes.  I am an idiot.  The green is where we are guaranteed with a win out with no help: #8 and lower.

[Beeeej]

Doesn't the red % under #7 mean we don't control our destiny for that spot? And doesn't that mean that #7 isn't guaranteed with a Cornell run of 6-0-0 through Lake Placid regardless of external factors?

Yes.  I am an idiot.  The green is where we are guaranteed with a win out with no help: #8 and lower.

Okay, cool. Thanks.

[Trotsky]

Finally, according to this, our probabilities for tourney advance are currently:

.85 Tourney
.42 QF
.19 SF
.09 F
.04 That Which Shall Be Nameless

[Hooking]

I love it when Cornell wins. I don't give a rat's ass whether possible future opponents win or lose, until they play Cornell. Except for Harvard.

[BearLover]

Finally, according to this, our probabilities for tourney advance are currently:

.85 Tourney
.42 QF
.19 SF
.09 F
.04 That Which Shall Be Nameless

Is there a way to check what a loss to RPI would do to us in the PWR?  Because unless such a loss would knock us down just a few spots, that 85% number feels way too high.

[LGR14]

Finally, according to this, our probabilities for tourney advance are currently:

.85 Tourney
.42 QF
.19 SF
.09 F
.04 That Which Shall Be Nameless

Is there a way to check what a loss to RPI would do to us in the PWR?  Because unless such a loss would knock us down just a few spots, that 85% number feels way too high.

Without taking into account anything else that might happen on Friday night, a loss drops Cornell to 15th.

But keep in mind that the 85% number is going to inherently account for (a) what are the odds that Cornell beats RPI; (b) what are the odds that Cornell makes up for any potential loss to RPI by winning in the quarterfinals; (c) what are the odds Cornell can beat Union

[Beeeej]

Finally, according to this, our probabilities for tourney advance are currently:

.85 Tourney
.42 QF
.19 SF
.09 F
.04 That Which Shall Be Nameless

Is there a way to check what a loss to RPI would do to us in the PWR?  Because unless such a loss would knock us down just a few spots, that 85% number feels way too high.

Without taking into account anything else that might happen on Friday night, a loss drops Cornell to 15th.

But keep in mind that the 85% number is going to inherently account for (a) what are the odds that Cornell beats RPI; (b) what are the odds that Cornell makes up for any potential loss to RPI by winning in the quarterfinals; (c) what are the odds Cornell can beat Union

Exactly. 85% isn't too high because the fact that RPI is 57th in the Pairwise, and therefore "likely" to lose to us, is already "baked in." The fact that we'd drop precipitously if we lost is also baked in, since it's supposed to be "unlikely."

[BearLover]

Finally, according to this, our probabilities for tourney advance are currently:

.85 Tourney
.42 QF
.19 SF
.09 F
.04 That Which Shall Be Nameless

Is there a way to check what a loss to RPI would do to us in the PWR?  Because unless such a loss would knock us down just a few spots, that 85% number feels way too high.

Without taking into account anything else that might happen on Friday night, a loss drops Cornell to 15th.

But keep in mind that the 85% number is going to inherently account for (a) what are the odds that Cornell beats RPI; (b) what are the odds that Cornell makes up for any potential loss to RPI by winning in the quarterfinals; (c) what are the odds Cornell can beat Union

Exactly. 85% isn't too high because the fact that RPI is 57th in the Pairwise, and therefore "likely" to lose to us, is already "baked in." The fact that we'd drop precipitously if we lost is also baked in, since it's supposed to be "unlikely."

I understand that, but I do not think the predictor accounts for how much randomness exists in a single game of hockey.  If we lose to RPI, we are probably less than 50% to make the NCAAs.  We've lost/nearly lost to many bad teams this year.  Any prediction predicated on what seems to an extremely high likelihood of beating a team we had to score twice in the final seven minutes to beat a few weeks ago seems faulty to me.

[ugarte]

I love it when Cornell wins. I don't give a rat's ass whether possible future opponents win or lose, until they play Cornell. Except for Harvard.

ok