Bracketology 2016-17 Style

[Beeeej]

I wasn't aware that a team under .500 was ineligible for the tournament by rule. This makes me feel a little better about St Cloud.

Not that I necessarily expect everyone to read every post (though the PWR certainly seems to be a keen interest of yours), but someone pointed that out in this forum several days ago in response to that exact concern.

[wakester2468]

To me, bracketology is not an obsession but rather a way to keep interest flowing during the week awaiting weekend games. As previously stated, the actual match ups it creates
during the season are irrelevant but what it does provide is weekly analysis as to trends and what to expect to see how the committee might view things with all of the possibilities.  I enjoy reading both Jason Moy and especially Adam Wodon with his close connection to the Big Red.

[CU2007]

Worth pointing out that St. Cloud has to head to Denver for two games this weekend, where a sweep would put them back under .500 but a win might drastically improve their RPI.

[Jim Hyla]

Adam Wodon's recent article on Pairwise was about the best explanation of the process I've read recently. I wasn't aware that a team under .500 was ineligible for the
tournament by rule. This makes me feel a little better about St Cloud. While weekly projections are fun, Adam is correct that they basically are meaningless until
the last week and conference playoffs.  Another observation which is pointed out is the issues that North Dakota hosting creates.  To not put the top seed there because of a
potential match up with them in a regional final seems to give reason to not allow teams to host on their own ice.  Teams hosting regionals in their area makes sense but at
the schools themselves. Harvard or BU being forced to Fargo to eliminate a Duluth vs ND match up in the 2nd round is clearly wrong. Let's also not forget that North Dakota
plays on an Olympic size sheet. At least playing at Lake Placid the week before might help in that regard. Going to be interesting over the next three weeks to see how the committee
places tems.

Note, a little research would have pointed out:

UND plays at Ralph Engelstad Arena in Grand Forks, ND.

The NCAA is at Scheels Arena in Fargo, ND.

Both rinks are 85 ft ice sheets. Although UND does have a practice Olympic sized 100 ft sheet. That probably dates back to old WCHA days, when their main opponent was Minny.

So the NCAA hosted by UND is not being played on their own rink. In fact they are 82 miles apart, but Scheels will be packed with UND fans. Thus not wanting to put #1 seed there.

[wakester2468]

Good info on your part albeit a little snarky.

[Trotsky]

Wait.  Are you telling me there are two different towns in North Dakota, because I'm not sure I believe that.

[RichH]

Wait.  Are you telling me there are two different towns in North Dakota, because I'm not sure I believe that.

For the last time, that antenna doesn't count.

[Trotsky]

Wait.  Are you telling me there are two different towns in North Dakota, because I'm not sure I believe that.

For the last time, that antenna doesn't count.

I just want to say that I for one never stopped being 12 years old.

The tower was built by Hamilton Erection Company of York, South Carolina

[CU2007]

Wait.  Are you telling me there are two different towns in North Dakota, because I'm not sure I believe that.

For the last time, that antenna doesn't count.

I just want to say that I for one never stopped being 12 years old.

The tower was built by Hamilton Erection Company of York, South Carolina

I don't care who ya are, that's funny.

[Jim Hyla]

Here's this week's and now Adam discusses CHN's Pairwise Probability Matrix.

Code Select Expand


This week's brackets

[b][u]East Regional (Providence):[/u][/b]

14 Air Force vs. [b][u]3 Harvard[/u][/b]
9 Providence vs. [b][u]7 Union[/u][/b]

[b][u]Northeast Regional (Manchester):[/u][/b]

15 Boston College vs. 4 Minnesota
[b][u]10 Cornell[/u][/b] vs. 6 Boston University

[b][u]Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):[/u][/b]

16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Denver
11 Penn State vs. 5 Western Michigan

[b][u]West Regional (Fargo):[/u][/b]

13 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
12 St. Cloud State vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

[b][u]OR (You decide)[/u][/b]

[b][u]East Regional (Providence):[/u][/b]

14 Air Force vs. [b][u]3 Harvard[/u][/b]
9 Providence vs. [b][u]7 Union[/u][/b]

[b][u]Northeast Regional (Manchester):[/u][/b]

16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Denver
[b][u]10 Cornell[/u][/b] vs. 6 Boston University

[b][u]Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):[/u][/b]

13 Ohio State vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
11 Penn State vs. 5 Western Michigan

[b][u]West Regional (Fargo):[/u][/b]

15 Boston College vs. 4 Minnesota
12 St. Cloud State vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
[b][u]Conference breakdowns[/u][/b]


NCHC — 4
Hockey East — 4
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

[b][u]Movement[/u][/b]

In: Ohio State
[b][u]Out: North Dakota[/u][/b]

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2017/02/22/if-ncaa-tournament-started-today-whos-in-and-whos-out/#ixzz4ZPvqDGN4

UND being out makes for interesting discussion about Fargo.

Personally I don't like the second choice, which is done to improve attendance in Cincinnati. You reward a 13 seed.

Also if we were to get by BU, I'd rather face Minny than DU.

And as an aside, for anyone who doesn't think changing a coach can make a big difference, just look at DU.

[wakester2468]

For weeks and for that matter years, Jason Moy in calculating Bracketology  and the 16 teams to qualify for the NCAA"s, finds it necessary to give an
automatic bid to the team that is currently in 1st place in their conference.  Does this assume that they will win their conference playoffs and get an automatic bid?
This the case with BC yet not the same with Canisius albeit they have one few game less than AF.  The one or two team difference because of this method changes
completely brackets and the forecast. I still think Adam's pairwise matrix makes so much more sense It factors in both chances of getting an at at large bid along
the odds of the automatic qualifier.

[CU2007]

For weeks and for that matter years, Jason Moy in calculating Bracketology  and the 16 teams to qualify for the NCAA"s, finds it necessary to give an
automatic bid to the team that is currently in 1st place in their conference.  Does this assume that they will win their conference playoffs and get an automatic bid?
This the case with BC yet not the same with Canisius albeit they have one few game less than AF.  The one or two team difference because of this method changes
completely brackets and the forecast. I still think Adam's pairwise matrix makes so much more sense It factors in both chances of getting an at at large bid along
the odds of the automatic qualifier.

He uses points percentage  (not total points) to award the automatic bid in order to compensate for team's having played differing numbers of games.

[KenP]

I'd be curious to do a sensitivity analysis on the Probability Matrix.  For example, how screwed are we if we lose to RPI?  Or how important are two St. Cloud losses?  Is there some other result our of our control that could push us up to a 2-seed in the NCAA tourney?

[Swampy]

I'd be curious to do a sensitivity analysis on the Probability Matrix.  For example, how screwed are we if we lose to RPI?  Or how important are two St. Cloud losses?  Is there some other result our of our control that could push us up to a 2-seed in the NCAA tourney?

If anything, I suspect winning the ECAC tournament might do the trick.

[KenP]

I'd be curious to do a sensitivity analysis on the Probability Matrix.  For example, how screwed are we if we lose to RPI?  Or how important are two St. Cloud losses?  Is there some other result our of our control that could push us up to a 2-seed in the NCAA tourney?

If anything, I suspect winning the ECAC tournament might do the trick.

Okay, so let's go from there.  If we win the ECAC tournament, what is our highest or lowest possible seed?  Does that guarantee a #2 seed?  Can we get a #2 seed without winning the Whitelaw Cup?