Rankings

Trotsky · February 16, 2017, 05:23:22 PM

Quote from: BeeeejYes, at this stage of the game, winning out should certainly mean we have a strong shot at an at-large bid.

Winning out means the auto bid and the national championship. ::cheer::

Trotsky · February 16, 2017, 05:24:18 PM

Quote from: HookingSpeculation about the outcome of games in which other teams play other teams apparently assumes Cornell's playoff future is out of their hands.

No.

BearLover · February 16, 2017, 07:59:47 PM

Getting lucky is a necessary condition for making the tournament for all but the very best teams. Most teams in the NCAAs have more things break their way than not over the course of a season. It's silly to dismiss luck as a major factor in determining who comes out on top from a small sample of hockey games. Nothing wrong with scoreboard-watching.

Hooking · February 17, 2017, 10:19:09 AM

I apologize for my apparently disturbing statement about "the luck of the draw". I wished to suggest that Cornell's playoff hopes truly ARE in the team's hands and it's best for the players and probably fans to concentrate on winning the remaining games, one at a time, rather than become distracted by teams Cornell won't even play again in the regular season - statistical analyses not withstanding. Focus upon Cornell winning rather than unscheduled opponent's winning or losing is not "negativity" in my book.

redice · February 17, 2017, 10:36:15 AM

Quote from: Beeeej........taking a closer look at how the math works doesn't mean we're looking for something to blame other than Cornell's performance if we don't get in. It just means we're geeks and nerds who enjoy looking at how the math works and speculating on how the math could shake out and affect us in different ways.

And, a someone who is curious about such things, but not about to work it out for himself, I thank you "geeks and nerds" for offering up the results of your fun...

It is greatly appreciated... In my younger days, I used to do such things... Now, I read your musings & wait to see what happens. :-)

Trotsky · February 17, 2017, 10:44:38 AM

Quote from: rediceIn my younger days, I used to do such things... Now, I read your musings & wait to see what happens. :-)

This is true for pretty much all of us except John.

KenP · February 17, 2017, 11:21:25 AM

Sensitivity analysis allows us to better manage expectations. In some cases, it's "win or we are not as well off." In this case it's "win or we may be screwed."

wakester2468 · February 17, 2017, 12:22:32 PM

Based on the Pair Wise Metrics on CHN, Cornell has a 76% chance of making the NCAA tournament. To quote that great scholar Al Davis, "Just won Baby" and all will work itself out.

Trotsky · February 17, 2017, 01:41:58 PM

Quote from: wakester2468Based on the Pair Wise Metrics on CHN, Cornell has a 76% chance of making the NCAA tournament. To quote that great scholar Al Davis, "Just won Baby" and all will work itself out.

74 on playoffstatus. Just win indeed.

BTW, beating SLU tonight moves us to 99% chance of a bye and 95 of top 3, while a loss drops us to 82 / 53.

BearLover · February 17, 2017, 09:39:18 PM

CC-Denver and Miami-Minn-Duluth tonight in matchups of mediocre teams we've played versus the top two teams in the country.

wakester2468 · February 18, 2017, 07:43:33 AM

By my calculations, which admittedly have not always been perfect, Cornell has already clinched a first round bye. In the worst case scenario, there could either be a three way tie for 3rd, a 3 way tie for 4th, a 2 way tie for 3rd or a 2 way tie for 4th. In all instances, Cornell has the tie breaker beating STL
twice and splitting with Q. If it gets to the next tie breaking criteria which the record against the top four teams, Cornell also wins that and even with a loss against Union that record would be better than all others. I would like to know if anyone sees it differently.

LGR14 · February 18, 2017, 09:17:38 AM

Quote from: wakester2468By my calculations, which admittedly have not always been perfect, Cornell has already clinched a first round bye. In the worst case scenario, there could either be a three way tie for 3rd, a 3 way tie for 4th, a 2 way tie for 3rd or a 2 way tie for 4th. In all instances, Cornell has the tie breaker beating STL
twice and splitting with Q. If it gets to the next tie breaking criteria which the record against the top four teams, Cornell also wins that and even with a loss against Union that record would be better than all others. I would like to know if anyone sees it differently.

What about if Cornell loses out and Q wins out, Cornell and Q wold be tied with 27 points. Assume SLU wins enough games to get to 28 points. The second tiebreaker is league wins, which Q would have one more of if they win out.

wakester2468 · February 18, 2017, 09:40:53 AM

You are correct. There still exists the chance with three CU losses and three Q wins that they end up with 13 win to our 12. That does appear to be the only combination where we lose a first round bye. Good catch.

upprdeck · February 18, 2017, 09:44:09 AM

lets hope they win tonight and take care of business vs RPI so that the union game is at worst for 2nd place.

if we are looking at stopping a 2 game losing streak and falling out of a first round bye the NCAA pwr will be having huge issues as well.

2 out of the next 3 and a 2nd round sweep probably puts us on the edge again.

3 for 3 and a sweep probably locks us in.

anything less is out of our control.

Jim Hyla · February 18, 2017, 10:36:07 AM

Quote from: upprdecklets hope they win tonight and take care of business vs RPI so that the union game is at worst for 2nd place.

if we are looking at stopping a 2 game losing streak and falling out of a first round bye the NCAA pwr will be having huge issues as well.

2 out of the next 3 and a 2nd round sweep probably puts us on the edge again.

3 for 3 and a sweep probably locks us in.

anything less is out of our control.

You mean if we beat Union, it's at worst 2^nd, correct? If we lose to Union, I think our "at worst" could be third.