Bracketology

[nyc94]

Right now on CHN we are 13, one ten-thousandth of a point above UVM.

Minnesota-Duluth beats Nebraska-Omaha so we're back to 14. Would still get BC in Worcester either way.

[ugarte]

... aaaaand back to 13.

[Chris '03]

As if it weren't obvious, Cornell needs to win two this weekend to stay alive nationally. This summary is worth a look: http://collegehockeyranked.com/2014/03/12/final-regular-season-pairwise-forecast/

#13 Cornell is the highest ranked team with very little chance of staying in contention if swept this weekend, with a ranking of #18-#20 most likely if swept or #16-#19 most likely with a single win. Winning the round would keep Cornell in contention, most likely landing between #10-#15 (the broad range is attributable to two wins being achievable with either zero or one losses).

[upprdeck]

how does this calculate what happens with  the schools behind us?  if we lose 2 and colgate does or others as well how far do teams behind move up?

[Robb]

how does this calculate what happens with  the schools behind us?  if we lose 2 and colgate does or others as well how far do teams behind move up?

Pretty sure he just does a Monte Carlo (based on KRACH?) so of the trials he ran where we lost 2, we ended up 16th in the PWR only about 1% of the time.

[Jim Hyla]

Here we are.

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This week's brackets

How does all this look? Looks good to me. I would love to swap Cornell and Michigan,
but I can't because of the Big Ten matchup. So we have to leave this as is.


West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud State

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]13 Cornell vs. 4 Wisconsin[/u][/b]
11 Providence vs. 6 Ferris State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Michigan vs. 2 Boston College
10 North Dakota vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Northeastern vs. 3 Union
9 Notre Dame vs. 7 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 6
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move

In: Northeastern
Out: Minnesota State
Attendance woes?

I do have some concerns now because of the way teams are spread out.

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/12/one-week-out-and-the-no-3-seeds-pose-some-challenges/#ixzz2vq9igvBF



[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Here we are.

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This week's brackets

How does all this look? Looks good to me. I would love to swap Cornell and Michigan,
but I can't because of the Big Ten matchup. So we have to leave this as is.


West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud State

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]13 Cornell vs. 4 Wisconsin[/u][/b]
11 Providence vs. 6 Ferris State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Michigan vs. 2 Boston College
10 North Dakota vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Northeastern vs. 3 Union
9 Notre Dame vs. 7 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 6
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move

In: Northeastern
Out: Minnesota State
Attendance woes?

I do have some concerns now because of the way teams are spread out.

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/12/one-week-out-and-the-no-3-seeds-pose-some-challenges/#ixzz2vq9igvBF



I'd love it if he could swap Cornell and Michigan, too.

[jkahn]

Despite all the bracketology, making the NCAA tournament is still not an easy task for us.
If we beat Clarkson in 3 and get beaten in the ECAC semis, the W/L% component of RPI will cause our RPI to drop .0039.  That would pt us 15th today, and certainly put us in jeopardy of not qualifying.

[upprdeck]

if we go with us winning in 3, then say colgate wins in 3, likely yale loses. so 2 teams right behind us wont pass us. so many variables.

Minn St probably sweeps.
alasks wins in 3.

Minn sweeps Mich would help

NE/UNH  both just behind us
lowell beating Vermont in a sweep would help
prov beating maine

minn - duluth/west mich toss up.
col college beating UND might help us as well.

[Trotsky]

Are we guaranteed an NCAA slot if we sweep Clarkson and make the final?

Self-answer: yes.

Probabilities for making the field by winning out minus the conference final:

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1.00 Uni
 .99 Qpc
1.00 Cor
 .98 Col
 .99 Yal


The other 3 ECAC teams are listed as "X," which I guess means this metric was projected from the beginning of the playoffs (surprising -- seems simple to make it from the current moment onwards).

[Chris '03]

Are we guaranteed an NCAA slot if we sweep Clarkson and make the final?

Probably too early to tell.

[upprdeck]

i think we hope we sweep clarkson and then live with whatever that brings us.. probably 50/50 we sweep at best.  what are the odds we then beat union 10-20%?

[Chris '03]

i think we hope we sweep clarkson and then live with whatever that brings us.. probably 50/50 we sweep at best.  what are the odds we then beat union 10-20%?

Don't rule out the chance of Yale advancing and Cornell ducking Union until the final (should they beat clarkson and colgate).

[Trotsky]

Odds of each team advancing:

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.97 Uni
.68 Qpc
.71 Col



Therefore the odds of, having advanced, playing Union in the SF are just 47%.

Scenarios:

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Uni, Col, Qpc = Uni .47
Uni, Col, Yal = Col .21
Uni, SLU, Qpc = Qpc .18
Uni, SLU, Yal = Yal .08
Drt, Col, Qpc = Qpc .0145
Drt, Col, Yal = Yal .0064
Drt, SLU, Qpc = SLU .0059
Drt, SLU, Yal = Drt .0026



SF Opponent:

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.47 Uni
.21 Col
.19 Qpc
.09 Yal
.0059 SLU
.0026 Drt



(Various rounding issues from source data.)

[Jim Hyla]

Not that this week's matters much to us.

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This week's brackets

West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
10 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Wisconsin

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Ferris State
11 Michigan vs. 8 Notre Dame

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
[b][u]15 Colgate vs. 2 Boston College[/u][/b]
12 Minnesota State vs. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell

East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]14 Vermont vs. 3 Union
9 Providence vs. 6 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns

Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move

[b][u]In: Colgate[/u][/b], Minnesota State
[b][u]Out: Cornell[/u][/b], Northeastern
Attendance woes?

I do have some concerns now because of the way teams are spread out.



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[url=http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/03/19_bracket_abcs_championship.php]And Adam's take.[/url] The Bracket

There is very little chance it happens exactly like this, but for instructional purposes, we can see what a bracket could look like if all the higher seeds win every game this weekend. First, let's place them in strict 1-16 serpentine order.

1. Minnesota vs. 16. Atlantic champ
8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Providence

2. Boston College vs. 15. Minnesota State
7. Quinnipiac vs. 10. St. Cloud State

3. Union vs. 14. Michigan
6. Wisconsin vs. 11. North Dakota

4. Ferris State vs. 13. Vermont
5. Mass.-Lowell vs. 12. Colgate

The first thing that must be changed is Notre Dame and Providence. As members of the same conference, they can't play each other. Given the attendance factor, this would be a no-brainer switch — Providence and St. Cloud State swap so that Providence plays in Worcester against Quinnipiac, and St. Cloud State plays in St. Paul against Notre Dame.

Otherwise, things are fine — though I could see the Committee doing one other swap: moving the Wisconsin-North Dakota game to Cincinnati, and the Lowell-Colgate game to Bridgeport. This, again, would maintain decent "bracket integrity" while also helping those teams' fans more easily make the games.

Keep checking in with CHN to see what happens, and our analysis of it.

So, Adam, this is what you mean. Why can't you put it down.:-D (Now watch it, I've probably screwed it up somewhere.)

St. Paul
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Atlantic champ
8. Notre Dame vs. 10. St. Cloud State

Worcester
2. Boston College vs. 15. Minnesota State
7. Quinnipiac vs. 9. Providence

Bridgeport
3. Union vs. 14. Michigan
5. Mass.-Lowell vs. 12. Colgate

Cincinnatti
4. Ferris State vs. 13. Vermont
6. Wisconsin vs. 11. North Dakota


I like Adam's better. No reason to bunch up the ECAC teams. Although doing it makes a FF participant more likely.

Win, baby, win