Win out or get screwed for the Big Red

[cnunlist]

A quick look at the PWR after the UNH win seems to show that our comparison with UNH will flip (as will our pairwise positions) if we lose another game before the NCAA tourney - since BU is currently in the #4 spot and must stay in Worcester, if UNH passes us we get sent West.  Am I missing something?  That seems awfully unfair, but it seems to be the way the math works out.

Cabot

[DeltaOne81]

It's definitely the way things work out, and you're right, it sucks.

One correction though, if we lose to a TUC. Should Colgate make Albany, losing to them wouldn't give us another loss vs. TUC, unless winning move them up enough to be a TUC.

[jbeaber1998]

Curious to see what happens with the bonus points for "quality wins"....

[Al DeFlorio]

Unless I missed something, UHN's only out-of-conference "good win" was over Minnesota, and that was at home.

It wouldn't surprise me if the NCAA found some way to keep them east, though.  Maybe we do want Providence in the #4 seed at the Dunk. ::help::

[ugarte]

Or two losses and a 2 seed.  (Just kidding.)

Is it possible for us to fall to #3 and have someone else bump BU down to #5 (making BU the 2 seed in Worcester)?



Post Edited (03-16-03 01:19)

[Jordan]

I say we make things easy and win 2 in Albany. :-D

[Greg Berge]

If good wins are wins over TUCs not in conference, then:

Cornell: A (OSU), H (BU), H (BU), A (WMU), A (WMU)
UNH: H (Minny)
BU: H (Harvard), N (Michigan State), N (Michigan), N (Harvard)

[DeltaOne81]

[Q]Is it possible for us to fall to #3 and have someone else bump BU down to #5 (making BU the 2 seed in Worcester)?[/Q]
i was looking into this before, and it's not too likely. The most obvious candidate would be Ferris State, but they'd need to overtake BU in the RPI category, and a very basic analysis (through JTW's scripts) of them winning against the #4 and #2 in the CCHA (Mich and Mich St) showed they wouldn't gain half the RPI they needed to, but if anyone wants to give #2 and #4 the requisite wins first, you can see if that makes a difference, though I highly doubt it'd be big enough.

Maine's not going anywhere. :-D

The only hope is Minn then, which has a closer RPI, but unfortunately loses the comparison 3-1. They'd need to grab TUC too, and that just doesn't look close enough right now (my post-Dunbars mind doesn't feel like doing the legwork ;-) ).

So, Albany is big for us this year, even though we come into it as a given for the NCAAs, it's probably as big than Placid last year, where some loses would have knocked us out (the one loss to Hahvahd gave us the last at large bid, if I remember correctly).

Edit: Greg, WMU isn't even close to top 15 RPI, so they don't count. And at the moment, neither is Michigan St.



Post Edited (03-16-03 01:42)

[ugarte]

I took a cursory look.  Minny can flip the comparisons with Maine and Dartmouth, but I don't see anyone else (and they need to beat CC to flip either, I think).  I can't see anyone who could flip BU, so Minny would still be #5, at best.  FSU has a "low" RPI, so I don't know who they could catch.  

Grrrr. :-(

[Greg Berge]

> Edit: Greg, WMU isn't even close to top 15 RPI, so they don't count. And at the moment, neither is Michigan St.

So, it's top 15 RPI.  OK.

[ken stillman]

  Folks, our biggest allies are the Gophers.  If they win their tournament,  CC  goes to that nasty Yost place as  #1 there;  with Minn #1 at home.  Of course, winning in Albany will help too. We'll  be  #! in Worcester,  BU #2.     UNH at Prov. because a rematch betwen UNH and BU is undesireable.

[rhovorka]

Cabot Nunlist wrote:

A quick look at the PWR after the UNH win seems to show that our comparison with UNH will flip (as will our pairwise positions) if we lose another game before the NCAA tourney - since BU is currently in the #4 spot and must stay in Worcester, if UNH passes us we get sent West.  Am I missing something?  That seems awfully unfair, but it seems to be the way the math works out.

I just ran JTW's RPI script a couple of times with a couple of scenarios, involving a win vs. our 3 possible Semi-Final opponents (prior to the 2 QF game 3s), and a loss to Harvard in the finals (please, god, no).  I only included the QF, SF, and ECAC Final results (no consolation), and of course it doesn't include the good win bonus.

With a SF win vs. Yale and a loss to Harvard, we still beat UNH in RPI, .5903 to .5894, and would therefore win the comparison with UNH 2-1.

With a SF win vs. Brown and a loss to Harvard, we still beat UNH in RPI .5894 to .5892, and would therefore win the comparison with UNH 2-1.

With a SF win vs. Colgate and a loss to Harvard, UNH wins in RPI .5880 to .5890, and UNH would win the comparison 2-1, and take the #2 PWR position.

I didn't look at anything else, such as if we lost to another team besides Harvard, because I'm lazy.  Also, too many negative thoughts is bad for me.

Just win the ECAC Championship, and Cornell Nation can party without worry.



Post Edited (03-16-03 14:03)

[ugarte]

Rich Hovorka '96 wrote:

With a SF win vs. Colgate and a loss to Harvard, UNH wins in RPI .5880 to .5890, and UNH would win the comparison 2-1, and take the #2 PWR position.

Obviously nobody knows what the RPI bonus points situation is, but if two wins over BU and a win over OSU aren't worth .001 more than a win over Minnesota, the bonus points are so lacking in value that we have been worrying over nothing (except for the suspicions of dishonesty).  If Rich is right about all of the calculations (given his caveat that he didn't run all of the numbers), we should be 1 win away from placement on the East coast.

[Larry Weintraub \'98]

Brown's win over Yale makes them a TUC, if they remain a TUC a 1-1 record at Placid will keep the record vs. TUC point in our favor.  So, the comparison with UNH is more solid than it appears.  Of course, Brown would probably need to win the consy to stay a TUC, but I don't know fgor sure.  Just losing to us might be enough to solidify Brown's RPI above .5000.

The quality win bonus does appear to be in our favor if OSU stays in the top 15.

[Larry Weintraub \'98]

What I forgot to say is, of course, if we want a #1 seed and a stay east, then I recommend winning twice.  The team should be able to do that, if the season is any guide.